++++ Latest OIL WORLD Headlines ++++

Sep 03: 
Rally in Grain Prices Spilled Over to other Commodities....

The price differentials of the major commodities have been adjusted noticeably this week.
Price strength in wheat and corn currently dampens the bearish outlook for soybeans owing to upcoming stiff competition for acreage. Prospective tightness in global vegetable oil supplies is keeping rapeseed and sunseed complexes well supported.
The stiff competition for acreage will keep prices of the major grains and oilseeds on a relatively high level in the foreseeable future.

Aug 27: 
Prices of Vegetable Oils Likely to Be Relatively Firmer than those of Oilmeals in 2010/11.....

Today's analysis reveals the struggle of the global markets to sufficiently increase production of vegetable oils to meet rising demand from the food, oleo-chemical and biofuel sectors.

Despite a record increase of 15 Mn T in world soybean crushings in Oct/Sept 2010/11 and an accelerated growth in palm oil output, world supplies of 8 vegetable oils will show a below-average increase of 3.3%, while supplies of 8 oilmeals are likely to rise by 5.7%. We forecast a further decline in the stocks of vegetable oils in 2010/11, contrary to the increase seen in oilmeals...

Aug 20: Sizably Higher EU-27 Import Requirements of Major Vegetable Oils & Oilmeals in 2010/11...

Insufficient domestic production has raised the dependence on oils & fats imports, primarily of the 4 major vegetable oils, soya oil, sun oil, rape oil and palm oil. Higher imports have already been registered in the second half of the 2009/10 season. But we expect the increase to accelerate and reach a new high of 9.1 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2010/11.
The biggest increases are expected to occur in soya oil, sunflower oil and palm oil. It will be difficult to accomplish the anticipated rise in rape oil imports to 550 Thd T because world exports are expected to decline by about 150 Thd T (this also includes canola oil)...

Aug 13: Stronger than expected world demand for soybeans & products as a result of the recent weather damage and reduced availability of rapeseed & products as well as of sunflowerseed & products. -- Very large Chinese purchases of soybeans...

Large US supplies again in 2010/11. The US soybean crop generally developed under favourable conditions in recent weeks. In some regions damage has been caused by heat and dryness, more than compensated by very good conditions in most of the key growing areas.
In its first survey-based production report (Aug 12) the USDA raised its soybean crop estimate to 93.4 Mn T (or 3433 million bushel), a new record and up 2.0 Mn T from the previous high achieved last year. The estimate of this year’s harvested area has been left unchanged at 31.56 Mn ha (up 0.65 Mn ha or 2.1% from last year), while the average yield was placed at last year’s record level of 2.96 T/ha or 44.0 bu/acre. There are still some weather uncertainties, primarily for the remainder of August until pod-filling is completed.

Aug 06: World Supplies of Rapeseed & Canola Set to Decline Massively by 4.3 Mn T...

It is true that old-crop soybean supplies are tight in the USA and we estimate stocks at only 5.1 Mn T or 187 Mn bu as of end-August 2010. But in the rest of the world soybean stocks are up sharply. We estimate world stocks as of end-Aug 2010 at 68 Mn T (up around 23 Mn T from last year), of which Argentina & Brazil 46.0 Mn T (up 14.3 Mn).
The large stocks will lead to a sharp increase in Argentine and Brazilian soybean crushings as well as exports of soybeans, oil & meal in Sept/Febr 2010/11, competing with US new-crop supplies of soybeans and products.
Soybean plantings for 2011 in South America are likely to exceed earlier expectations. Brazilian plantings may rise to 23.7-24.0 Mn ha (up from last year’s record of 23.4 Mn ha), contrary to earlier expectations of a decline.

Jul 23: Cotton prices have come under severe pressure in recent weeks owing to the looming steep increase in world production in 2010/11...

We have raised our estimate of global cottonseed production to a 3-year high of 44.2 Mn T, up 13% or 5.1 Mn T from 2009/10.
The US cotton crop is currently in much better shape than last year and we consider it likely that cottonseed output reaches 5.4-5.5 Mn T, up from last year’s low of only 3.76 Mn T.

Based on this crop estimate, we forecast US cottonseed crushings to increase by roughly 0.6 Mn T, exports by 0.1 Mn T and other uses (mainly direct feed for dairy cattle) by up to 0.9 Mn T. Direct feed use and crushings have declined significantly in recent years owing to dwindling supplies.
World trade in cottonseed may recover pronouncedly in 2010/11, given the expected larger crops in key exporting countries. In Oct/Sept 2010/11 cottonseed exports from the US may increase by more than 0.1 Mn T and those from Australia by up to 0.2 Mn T, assuming a steep increase of Australian cotton seed production in early 2011. The larger export supplies are likely to revive import demand mainly from Mexico, South Korea and Japan.

Jul 16: China Has to Cover 60% of Its Domestic Oils & Fats and 71% of Its Oilmeal Consumption by Imports...

Within less than 10 years China's import dependence has increased substantially because domestic production could not keep up with the accelerating consumption, partly resulting from a decline in arable area (caused by wind erosion and rising land requirements for infrastructure, housing and industry) and insufficient yields per hectare...

The import dependence in the oilmeal sector is likely to increase to 71% this season, up steeply from 48% three years earlier and 23% in 2001/02. Adding the meal equivalent of the net imports of the individual oilseeds to the net imports of oilmeals we arrive at total net imports of oilmeals of 41.7 Mn T...