OIL WORLD

Diesel Shortage Promotes Demand for HVO and Biodiesel

The recent rally in fossil diesel prices to record levels is causing some rationing of total diesel demand but at the same time promotes primarily usage of HVO as a drop-in alternative. The margins calculated for HVO producers in the USA have soared to unusually high levels this month on a combination of easing feedstock prices and ongoing firmness of crude mineral oil and gas oil prices. Feedstock prices came under pressure in the US owing to large imports, mainly in July...

Downward revisions for the USA and Indonesia are curbing the year-on-year increase of global biodiesel/HVO production slightly to an estimated 6.4 Mn T in 2026...

Booming Usage Is Reducing US Soya Oil Stocks

Booming domestic consumption and seasonally declining soybean crushings reduced US soya oil stocks to only 0.8 Mn T at the end of the Sept/Aug 2025/26 marketing year, down 3% from a year earlier and the lowest level since January 2025. 

Total US soybean crushings are estimated to have reached 5.75 Mn T last month, bringing the total to a new high of 72.05 Mn T in Sept/Aug 2025/26 (vs. 66.55 Mn T a year earlier).This contrasts with the 12 Mn T drop in US soybean exports in Sept/Feb 2025/26, which was followed by a year-on-year increase of 2.1 Mn T in the second half of the season...

Soya Oil Demand Keeps Growing Rapidly

The ongoing rapid growth of global soya oil requirements is driven primarily by booming US biodiesel production but also by strong import demand, mainly from India. Indian soya oil imports are seen exceeding initial estimates also in the remainder of 2026...

Rising US net imports will limit the increase of G-3 net exports of soya oil to about 130 Thd T in Sept/Dec 2026. Soya oil consumption in the USA, Argentina & Brazil seen rising by 2.4 Mn T in 2026....

World Production Probably Again Deficient in 2026/27

World production of the eight major vegetable oils is currently expected to increase by only 1.7% to 237.2 Mn T next season, attributable to the prospective decline in palm oil output that can be compensated only partly by seed oils. The deficit in the vegetable oil market may be magnified in the first quarter of the upcoming season by the possible continuation of sharply below-normal production and exports of sunflower oil from the Black Sea. 

The growth of world consumption is also seen losing momentum at an estimated 2.3% next season. The slowdown will partly be attributable to the probable further increase of prices, which will hurt primarily food consumption in low-income countries. ...Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

Soaring Protein Prices Have Taken Their Toll on Livestock Margins

The impact of rallying energy prices, both on the costs of livestock producers and the purchasing power of consumers, has been significant in recent months....Still, our current estimates imply a further increase in oilmeal usage of close to 10 Mn T next season. However, although this is trailing the annual growth of 14.5-19.0 Mn T in the preceding three seasons, it is highly unlikely to be achieved at current prices....

Tightening Supplies of Oilseeds and Products

The Indian market is currently affected by major uncertainties: will domestic kharif crops, like soybeans and groundnuts, develop favourably even under strengthening El Niño conditions after improved rainfall brought relief in July? 

We currently peg total Indian imports of vegetable oils at a 3-year high of 17.1 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2025/26, up from 16.5 Mn T a year ago, reflecting mainly recovering arrivals of sunflower oil and palm oil. However, the growth of oils and fats consumption may diminish to only around 0.3 Mn T this season...

Rallying Gasoil Prices Kept Veg Oil Prices Supported in July

The OIL WORLD Price Index for vegetable oils increased further to 226 points in July, implying that current prices are more than twice as high as the everages in the five years to 2019 .... See the updated monthly average prices for oils & fats until July...