OIL WORLD

Shrinking Production Growth Will Affect Consumption

All major vegetable oils are currently struggling with individual problems. In the soya oil market, supplies are strongly determined by the dominant co-product soya meal while consumption is subject to the vagaries of biofuel policies, primarily in the USA. Palm oil stocks are currently ample but may soon give way to tightening supplies, largely as a result of developments in Indonesia, both in terms of production and consumption.

Sunflower oil is moving to the market only grudgingly this quarter, contrasting with generally frontloaded disposals registered in preceding seasons. Global rapeseed oil supply estimates have grown in recent months but particularly Canadian exporters are faced with disrupted trade flows owing to the conflict with China and US biofuel policies favouring domestic feedstock.

These diverging factors kept prices of the major vegetable oils within a relatively narrow range during the past three months....Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

Rally In Soya Meal Prices Likely to Be Only Temporary

The resumption of Chinese purchases of US soybeans has sparked a rally in soybean futures at the CBOT so far this month, pulling up soya meal prices in the cash and futures markets. But have the fundamentals really changed or was the recent price spike primarily sentiment driven? ....

US soybean crushers are currently benefiting from abundant domestic soybean supplies, with processing reaching a new monthly high in Oct...However, the prospective growth in production is seen exceeding domestic soya meal demand, requiring US crushers to revive foreign demand. This is seen exerting price pressure on both cash and futures prices in the near to medium term while the oil share is likely to recover....MOre details in the MONTHLY....

EU Rape Meal Imports Up Sharply in July/Sept

US Soybean Export Prospects Still Highly Uncertain

The resumption of Chinese purchases of US soybeans has hardly changed the global supply & demand fundamentals. There will still be a global production surplus in soybeans in Sept/Aug 2025/26....

While US soybean exports to China will be resumed in December, shipments to the rest of the world are seen slowing down owing to the loss of  price competitiveness vis-a-vis South American soybeans....

Palm Oil Production Prospects Deteriorated for 2026

A change is underway in the palm oil market from comfortable supplies & depressed prices to declining stocks, tightening supplies & appreciating prices in Jan/March and the full calendar year 2026. Global palm oil production prospects have deteriorated and if our new forecast for next year materializes, the upward potential for palm oil prices in the months ahead could be substantial...

Contrary to earlier expectations of a year-on-year increase in 2026, we now anticipate crude palm oil output in Indonesia to decline to 49.0 Mn T next year... More details in the OIL WORLD Weekly....

Tightness Easing Only Slowly

World crushings of sunflowerseed are expected to continue to decline from a year earlier in Sept/Dec 2025 by probably 0.5-0.8 Mn T. However, a change is underway and we expect a recovery in sunflowerseed crushings by 2.5-3.0 Mn T on the year in Jan/Aug 2026. This assumes a pick-up in farmer selling, probably triggered by the prospective sharp increase in Argentine supplies and export availability in 2026...

Rising Soybean Stocks

In July/Oct 2025 world exports of soybeans to China increased by an estimated 6.5-7.0 Mn T from a year earlier, despite no shipments from the USA. This is quite astounding and will lead to a corresponding increase in arrivals in China until end-Nov or mid-Dec, considering the time for shipping and unloading of 4-6 weeks.

Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay boosted exports of soybeans to China to 30.6 Mn T in July/Sept 2025 (an increase of 8.3 Mn T from a year earlier)...