OIL WORLD

Supplies of Palm Oil and Rapeseed Oil are Currently Ample

The growth in world production of eight major vegetable oils is expected to slow down significantly from an estimated 4.3 Mn T in Oct/March 2025/26 to only 0.7 Mn T in April/Sept 2026....

Support for vegetable oil prices stems from diminishing production growth and increasing consumption. We currently peg world disappearance of the eight major vegetable oils at a record 229.9 Mn T this season....Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

Price Erosion Boosted World Usage of Soya Meal in 2025

Nearby prices currently supported by seasonally low Argentine crushings but further price setback required to keep demand growth elevated in the course of 2026

Seasonally declining Argentine soybean crushings as well as the recovery in soybean prices on CBOT following the resumption of Chinese purchases of US soybeans pushed soya meal prices in the cash and futures markets higher in recent weeks. However, we consider the price strength in the nearby position to be only temporary and expect Argentine soya meal export prices to decline to or even below .... More details in the MONTHLY....

Booming Imports of Oilseeds

Ample supplies of oilseeds and products are shaping up in coming months. The further increase of soybean imports will be supplemented by large arrivals of rapeseed early this year...Pakistani importers are now taking advantage of competitively priced Canadian canola. In 2025 they still depended on limited supplies of non-GM rapeseed from Europe and Australia, resulting in a pronounced decline in arrivals...

EU Rapeseed Prices Torn Between Bearish Supply and Bullish Demand Fundamentals

Larger winter rapeseed plantings bode well for a further increase in EU production in 2026. Timing and magnitude of the prospective recovery in demand for rapeseed oil as biofuel feedstock are key price-determining factors to watch.... EU-27 rapeseed production is estimated at 20.8 Mn T in 2026, a 12-year high and up 0.4 Mn T from a year earlier...

World Production Expected to Resume Uptrend in 2026

Production increase tentatively estimated at 4.6–4.7 Mn T amidst major political uncertainties and relatively tight feedstock supplies

Shrinking US production of biodiesel/HVO, the delay in the EPA announcement of biofuel guidelines and declining fossil fuel prices have recently exerted pressure on vegetable oils....Vegetable oil markets are currently evaluating to what extent a deterioration of the price competitiveness in the energy sector is justified in view of diminishing production growth shaping up in 2025/26....

World production of biodiesel/HVO is estimated to increase by 4.6–4.7 Mn T to a record 66.3 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2026. By country estimates in the WEEKLY...

Soybean Crush Up Sharply in 2025/26

Latest NOPA numbers indicate total US soybean crushings of 18.2 Mn T in Sept/Nov 2025, 1.5 Mn T or 9% above a year earlier....However, soybean inspections during the most recent two weeks plummeted to just 1.8 Mn T from 3.4 Mn T a year earlier. This is less than expected and will, most likely, require additional downward revisions in the export estimate for the full month of December....

Lower Production Growth Contrast With Bigger Demand Increase in 2025/26