OIL WORLD

World Production Probably Again Deficient in 2026/27

World production of the eight major vegetable oils is currently expected to increase by only 1.7% to 237.2 Mn T next season, attributable to the prospective decline in palm oil that can be compensated only partly by seed oils. The deficit in the vegetable oil market may be magnified in the first quarter of the upcoming season by the possible continuation of sharply below-normal production and exports of sunflower oil from the Black Sea. 

The growth of world consumption is also seen losing momentum at an estimated 2.3% next season. The slowdown will partly be attributable to the probable further increase of prices, which will hurt primarily food consumption in low-income countries. ...Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

Soaring Protein Prices Have Taking Their Toll on Livestock Margins

The impact of rallying energy prices, both on the costs of livestock producers as well as the purchasing power of consumers, has been significant in recent months....However, our current estimates imply a further increase in oilmeal usage of close to 10 Mn T next season. While this is trailing the annual expansion of 14.5-19.0 Mn T in the preceding three seasons, it is highly unlikely to be achieved at current prices....

Tightening Supplies of Oilseeds and Products

The Indian market is currently affected by major uncertainties: will domestic kharif crops like soybeans and groundnuts develop favourably even under strengthening El Niño conditions after improved rainfall brought relief in July? 

We currently peg total imports of vegetable oils at a 3-year high of 17.1 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2025/26, up from 16.5 Mn T a year ago, reflecting mainly recovering arrivals of sunflower oil and palm oil. However, the growth of oils and fats consumption may diminish to only around 0.3 Mn T this season...

Rallying Gasoil Prices Kept Veg Oil Prices Supported in July

The OIL WORLD Price Index for vegetable oils increased further to 226 points in July, implying that current prices are more than twice as high as the everages in the five years to 2019 .... See the updated monthly average prices for oils & fats until July...

 

EU Oilseed Crushings Forecast to Rise by 0.6 Mn T or 1% in 2026/27

Sunflowerseed crushings are seen rebounding in 2026/27 and are forecast to reach a 3-year high of 8.5 Mn T, with biggest gains in Romania, France, Hungary and Bulgaria... 

We anticipate rapeseed crushings in the EU to virtually stagnate at around 26.3 Mn T in 2026/27. Imports are set to decline, primarily from Canada and Australia.... Soybean crushings will probably also stagnate next season at the reduced level of 14.9 Mn T likely to be registered in 2025/26....

World Biodiesel Production May Increase by 6.7 Mn T in 2026

Biofuels likely to account for 22% of world consumption of oils & fats in 2025/26.

Combined world production of biodiesel and HVO is tentatively estimated at 69.5 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2026. Following a setback by 1.9 Mn T in 2025, production is seen increasing by as much as 6.7 Mn T this year. The reversal of the production trend is occurring primarily in the USA where the delayed release of policy guidelines had resulted in a reduction of biodiesel/HVO production by 2.8 Mn T in 2025. The release of ambitious admixture mandates early this year has triggered a sharp increase and may lift output of biodiesel and HVO in the USA to a new high ....

Usage of 17 oils and fats for biofuel production is seen increasing to an estimated 59.3 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2025/26 (excluding UCO). This raises the share absorbed by the energy market to a new high of 22%. By country estimates in the WEEKLY...

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Fundamentals Point to Increasing Vegetable Oil Prices in 2026/27
                                
The stage is set for a bullish price outlook for vegetable oils in the next 12 months. Prospects point to a global production deficit of 17 oils & fats as well as to inevitable demand rationing and higher prices. Our 2026/27 supply & demand forecasts of oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals - prepared in early June 2026 - point to tightness developing for oils & fats worldwide and higher prices, rising dependence on seed oils and a resulting further sizable increase in oilseed crushings as well as ample supplies of oilmeals. This will be reflected in deviating price trends, with additional upward momentum for vegetable oils and downward pressure on oilmeals. Seed oils will have to finance an even larger share of the crush margin next season, pushing the oil share even higher. The relative strength of oil & fat prices relative to oilmeals – already ongoing since 2024 - is likely to continue in 2026/27. 

For producers and consumers alike the global markets will again provide great challenges and opportunities this year. To take advantage of them you require the independent and competent information and forecasts we are providing in this unique compendium.

In the 2026 issue of the OIL WORLD ANNUAL we analyse all the important price-making factors and publish our first 2026/27 projections for each of the 10 oilseeds, 17 oils & fats and 12 oilmeals. The ANNUAL focusses also on demand for vegetable oils and animal fats  as a feedstock for biofuel production and its impact on the total global demand, trade and prices of oils and fats as well as the repercussions on oilseeds and oilmeals. This includes world production of biodiesel (with breakdown by country) as well as biodiesel imports and exports of major countries. More details in the just released OIL WORLD Annual 2026....