WEEKLY Sept 30
Supply Shortage Causing Price Rally
Price premiums of tallow vis-a-vis vegetable oils continued to widen during the past three months. Tallow prices for edible and inedible qualities have been supported by large demand and insufficient production worldwide.
In the USA consumption of tallow has been boosted by 0.5 Mn T or 13% to a record 4.58 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2021/22, most of that for the production of green energy (HVO). With domestic production of tallow & greases rising only slightly during the past 12 months, the strong demand could only be satisfied by turning the USA into the world’s largest importer of tallow in April/Sept 2022...
WEEKLY Sept 23
World Production Revised Upward
Production of biodiesel/HVO has increased rapidly primarily in the USA and Indonesia so far this year. Also production in China has been revised upward, reflecting mainly rising exports to the EU.
As a result, world production of biodiesel and HVO is now seen reaching a record 50.5 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2022, compared to 49.1 Mn T estimated in early July. The year-on-year increase is currently seen widening to 2.2 Mn T in 2022...
17 OILS & FATS
MONTHLY Sept 16
Transition to Ample Supplies and Rising Usage is Underway
Sizable growth in world supplies of palm oil and seed oils. Consumption will be promoted by lower prices but is partly limited by poor economic growth....
The recent upward revisions of oilseed production estimates are setting the stage for a significant improvement in vegetable oil output. We now expect world production of 17 oils and fats to increase sharply by 6.9 Mn T in 2022/23, significantly exceeding the growth rates registered in the latest two seasons.... Latest OIL WORLD estimates in the OIL WORLD Monthly....
MONTHLY Sept 16
Oilseed Production Forecast to Rebound by 34 Mn T in 2022/23
....Global production surplus anticipated. Stocks likely to recover by 10 Mn T. But many uncertainties complicate the outlook....
Lower than expected soybean production in the USA raises the global dependence on increasing South American supplies in the 2022/23 season....The annual growth in oilseed consumption is likely to accelerate to 17 Mn T in the new season compared with an increase of 7 Mn T in 2021/22, mainly on account of soybeans as well as rapeseed & canola....
WEEKLY Sept 9
Veg. Oil Consumption Seen Recovering in 2022/23
The steep decline of prices, primarily in Indonesia, has triggered a strong increase of Indian palm oil imports ....The fading impact of Covid-19, pent up demand and substantially lower prices are expected to promote a further uptrend of Indian vegetable oil consumption next season....
The forecast further increase of Indian vegetable oil production by 0.3 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2022/23 will probably materialize only if improved farmer selling allows domestic processors to work profitably amidst the expected strong competition from foreign vegetable oil suppliers...
SUNSEED & OIL
WEEKLY Sept 2
Prices of Sunseed & Oil Under Pressure on Rising Export Supplies
World exports have started to increase. For July/Sept we estimate exports of sunflower oil from five selected countries to rise by 0.4 Mn T or 23% from a year earlier, with biggest increases in exports from Russia, Ukraine and Bulgaria...
World production of sunflowerseed is now forecast at 53.4 Mn T in 2022/23. Large carryover stocks of sunflowerseed at the start of the new season in Ukraine, Russia and the EU-27 (primarily Bulgaria), will raise world supplies 0.7 Mn T above last season....
WEEKLY Aug 26
Canola Disposals Set to Recover Sharply in 2022/23
If weather cooperates and our current production estimate materializes, Canadian canola prices are set to weaken in coming weeks and months in order to revive world import demand.....
Demand developments in China will determine Canadian canola disposals in 2022/23. However, it is important to understand that a sizeable increase in Chinese canola imports will indirectly reduce world import demand for Canadian canola oil and meal, limiting the growth potential in canola crushings in the next twelve months....
--- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---
- 815 O
- Sept 29
- Palm olein RBD, fob Mal
- 1126 O
- Sept 29
- Soya oil, fob Arg
- 464 N
- Sept 29
- Soya Meal, fob Arg
- 1339 O
- Sept 29
- Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill