Tallow Supported by Rising Demand from Biofuel Producers

Tallow prices have appreciated relative to other oils & fats. It has become a preferred feedstock for the production of renewable energy. Rapidly rising demand, particularly in the USA, has outpaced production and generated unusually high premiums of tallow & greases for both technical as well as edible qualities....

Changes in trade flows have been significant. Stimulated by the higher prices prevailing in the USA, a larger portion of the tallow export supplies of Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and Argentina has been directed to the USA... More details in the WEEKLY

Exports Larger Than Expected in June/Aug

In August exports of wheat, rapeseed and sunflower oil as well as of rapeseed oil & meal increased on the year, despite the termination of the export corridor on July 17 and despite the damages done by Russian rockets/drones at several ports.....

Crushings of rapeseed and sunflowerseed turned out higher than expected in July and August, which boosted exports of the respective oils and meals sharply above last year’s level....

Brazilian Soybean Exports Forecast to Rise Sharply in Sept/Dec

Brazilian soybean exports are exceeding expectations. We have raised our estimate to 98.5 Mn T for Jan/Dec 2023 from a crop of 158 Mn T....

Combined soybean exports of 6 key countries declined seasonally in August but still exceeded the year-earlier level by 0.8 Mn T. Cumulative soybean exports of this group of major supplying countries increased by about 11 Mn T or 7% above a year earlier in Sept/Aug....

Record Vegoil Imports

Indian imports of palm oil and seed oils are reaching unprecedented levels this quarter as a result of huge arrivals in July and August. While consumption is recovering pronouncedly this season from the sluggish development in the preceding two years, the recent import volume has inflated vegetable oil inventories in India to partly burdensome levels.

According to our estimates, the stocks/usage ratio of the eight major vegetable oils calculates at a new high of more than 18% at the end of the season Oct/Sept 2022/23, versus 11–12% on average of the preceding five seasons...

Downward Revisions in Production and Usage in 2023/24

World production of 7 oilseeds is now estimated at 622.9 Mn T in 2023/24, 24.2 Mn T above the actual output in 2022/23. This is a downward revision from 625.4 Mn T estimated in mid-July, mainly on account of detrimental weather conditions....

Soybeans will increase their market share with an anticipated production of 394.3 Mn T worldwide, representing an increase by 25.6 Mn T on the year. In contrast, production of the other 6 oilseeds, taken as a group, is seen declining by 1.4 Mn T.....

Diverging Consumption Trends in 2022/23

Outlook 2023/24: Next season will be characterized by a significant slowdown in the combined production growth of sunflower oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil. This contributes to our expectation of a massive increase of soya oil output in the vicinity of ....

Update 2022/23: The production increase is seen turning out larger than expected at an estimated 6.4 Mn T as a result of upward revisions mainly in soya oil and sunflower oil...There are big deviations in consumption trends this season. Veg. oil consumption in the USA, Brazil, Indonesia, China and India is seen increasing by....

Soybean Plantings Set to Rise in 2023/24

Soybean plantings will expand next season at the expense of other crops, primarily wheat, corn and sunflowers..... Corn has lost attractiveness to soybeans in Argentina. Corn requires considerably more inputs. The high costs of fertilizers and pesticides are a constraint. Imports of agrochemicals are temporarily stopped to limit the outflow of foreign currency reserves...