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Presentation given by Thomas Mielke on 24 March at the Price Outlook Conference (Virtual POC 2021) organized by Bursa Malaysia

After establishing new multi-year highs, edible oil prices are likely to be close to their peak, as the bullish fundamentals should be (largely) discounted. Prices are set to start weakening in the Apr/June quarter followed by a further setback in July/Dec, Thomas Mielke outlined on 24 March in his presentation at the virtual POC 2021 (organized by Bursa Malaysia), owing to increasing S.E. Asian palm oil and South American soya oil production as well as a prospective sharp increase in oilseed plantings in the Northern Hemisphere and - - weather permitting - - sharply higher production of soybeans and sunflowerseed from August onward.

However, the price decline is likely to be moderate as long as depleted stocks of vegetable oils are not replenished sufficiently and current ambitious biodiesel mandates in many countries are not adjusted to the realities of the market. Also, the global tightness in sunflower oil will still last for the next 4-5 months and the currently tightness in palm oil will only gradually ease as long as the severe labor shortage is not resolved in the Malaysian palm oil industry. World palm oil production will stay considerable below potential in 2021. Soybean crushings are increasingly geared to oil demand, but soybeans cannot remove a global production deficit in vegetable oils without creating a surplus in meal.

Thomas Mielke updates the current global supply, demand and price situation, discusses the uncertainties and risk factors to watch, acknowledges the importance of fund activities and money flows in these volatile markets and provides his forecasts about what lies ahead. To download presentation slides click "sample" below...

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