Processing in 2023/24

All of the increase in world soybean supplies and crushings will occur in the second half of this season. For Sept/Febr 2023/24 we estimate processing of soybeans to turn out close to 150.2 Mn T registered a year earlier. But in March/Aug 2024 crushings are likely to rise by at least 7 Mn T, with the biggest increase in Argentina and more moderate ones in the USA, Brazil, China and a few other countries.

Combined crushings of rapeseed and sunflowerseed will still increase on the year in Sept/Dec 2023 by an estimated 2.3 Mn T but there will be only very limited growth in combined crushings in ...

Production Deficit Shaping Up

World palm oil production will increase only marginally, if at all, in Oct/Sept 2023/24 from the 81.4 Mn T produced last season. This is very unusual and compares with an average annual growth of 2.5 Mn T in the 10 years up to 2022/23. 

Palm oil has lost its growth dynamics. World production has already fallen sizably below trend since the year 2019. There has been an alarming decline in average yields in Malaysia and Indonesia.  One of the reasons is lack of replanting, which resulted in a deterioration of the age profile of the oil palms...

 

Disposals of Large Sunseed Crop Starting Slowly

Crushings of sunflowerseed in Ukraine have fallen short of expectations so far this season. We now estimate processing in Sept and Oct to be down 0.3-0.4 Mn T from a year earlier. Finding foreign buyers for sunflower meal has become a major challenge for Ukrainian crushers lately...

Imports of Oils & Fats Up 4.5 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2022/23

Chinese imports of 17 oils & fats increased by 4.5 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2022/23, reflecting rising consumption and a replenishment of stocks. ....

Oilseed imports slowed to 7.8 Mn T in Sept, but cumulative arrivals in Oct/Sept 2022/23 reached a record 109.9 Mn T. The sharp y-o-y increase in imports of soybeans as well as of rapeseed was partly used to build stocks, which will temporarily curb imports at the start of the 2023/24 season....

Plummeting Pork Output Curbing Oilmeal Demand

Plummeting demand (both foreign and domestic) and rising costs have disincentivised pork production in the European Union. Output declined by 1.1 Mn T to only an estimated 13.7 Mn T in Jan/Aug 2023 ...

Production of beef & veal also declined in the first 8 months of the year, only partly offset by a 0.3 Mn T recovery in poultry output....

 

World Olive Oil Production Even Smaller Than Expected

The supply tightness in olive oil is now getting even more dramatic if current production estimates materialize.…We consider it likely that olive oil prices will soon reach or exceed US-$ 10000 per tonne on the world market....Latest production estimates in the FLASH...

US Soya Oil Stocks Declining Further in Sept

The further decline in US soya oil inventories reported by NOPA members sparked a rally in soya oil prices on the CBOT yesterday. Nearby soya oil futures recovered by 2.8% to 55.90 c/lbs on Oct 16....

US soya oil consumption exceeded the year-ago level by an estimated 10% in Sept, primarily reflecting strong demand from US biodiesel & HVO producers. However, there are indications that the pronounced increase registered in Jan/Sept 2023 will slow down in Oct/Dec...