June 2024

    Global Production Deficit in Veg Oils in 2024/25

    World supplies of soybeans are ample and crushings are increasing sharply, raising export supplies of soya meal and oil. On the assumption of about normal weather conditions, world production of soybeans is estimated to rise steeply by close to 28 Mn T next season and, most likely, result in another global production surplus in the third consecutive season.

    If the weather stays largely favourable, there is a high likelihood that soybean prices will come under pressure and fall below US-$ 11.00 per bushel, if soybean crops in North America this autumn and in South America in early 2025 turn out close to or above our current estimates. Farmers will have to consider the bearish supply fundamentals in their selling policy.

    In contrast, global supplies of sunflowerseed and rapeseed (including canola) are currently forecast to decline by a combined 4 Mn T in 2024/25, thus enforcing a decline in crushings. This follows unusually large year-on-year increases in crushings of the two soft seeds in 2022/23 and 2023/24 by a staggering 18 Mn T combined.

    While the setback in production of the two meals can easily be compensated by rising supplies of soya meal, the production shortfall of the respective two oils will be more difficult to cope with worldwide, particularly if our current forecast of only a below-normal growth in palm oil materialize. A global deficit in combined production of sunflower oil and rapeseed oil is already expected to occur in July/Sept 2024 and will continue - probably aggravate - in the 24/25 season, leading to a decline in stocks and, most likely, independent strength of oils & fats prices. More details in the just released OIL WORLD Annual 2024....


    WEEKLY June 14

    Ample Soybean Supplies in 2024/25

    At an estimated 665.5 Mn T in 2024/25, world production of 10 oilseeds will be approximately 30 Mn T above a year earlier, with biggest increases in Brazil, the USA, Argentina and Canada....

    Ample soybean supplies are anticipated in 2024/25, based on the assumption of generally favourable weather in the major producing countries....In contrast, our current forecasts point to a decline in world supplies of rapeseed and sunflowerseed by a combined 4 Mn T from a year earlier, mainly due to smaller carry-in stocks...


    WEEKLY June 14

    World Production Set to Rise by 1.9 Mn T in 2024/25

    World production is currently forecast to rise by 1.9 Mn T on the year to around 60 Mn T in 2024/25....In many countries farmers have expanded plantings of sunflowers at the expense of other crops, bringing the harvested area to a new high of 30.9 Mn ha (up 1.2 Mn ha from a year earlier)...




    WEEKLY June 14

    Global Production Deficit in Rapeseed & Canola in 2024/25

    The outlook for 2024/25 points to a global production deficit in rapeseed & canola, reduced supplies as well as comparatively high prices to accomplish the required demand-rationing....

    The prospective sizeable increase in Canadian canola output is likely to be more than offset by lower crops in other key countries, reducing world production of rapeseed & canola to a three-year low of an estimated 76.6 Mn T in 2024/25...


    WEEKLY June 7

    World Biodiesel Output Seen Reaching 62.7 Mn T in 2024

    Global biodiesel/HVO output seen growing by 3.5 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2024, bringing it to a new high of 62.7 Mn T. Biggest increases in the USA and Brazil...

    Sharply increasing usage of waste oils and inedible corn oil, primarily in the USA and Singapore, took some share of the feedstock market away from edible oils in the recent past, adding to the pressure on vegetable oil prices during the past 12 months....

  • EU-27

    WEEKLY May 31

    Higher Import Duties on Russia & Belarus Likely to Distort the EU Protein Market

    The EU Council has adopted the regulation to significantly increase tariffs on imports of grains and oilseeds from Russia and Belarus on May 30, applied as of July 1.....

    While the political goal of this measure is clear, quantifying the impact on the European market (primarily for proteins) is much more complex. Looking at oilseeds and products, the impact will be most severe for linseed and rapeseed meal. ... More details in the WEEKLY of May 31...


    WEEKLY May 31

    EU Import Duties Likely to Reshape Global Trade Flows

    Increasing EU import duties on Russian linseed are likely to reshape global trade flows in the 2024/25 season....

    Limited export supplies of linseed  in the rest of the world (primarily Canada and Kazakhstan) would curtail EU imports and crushings in coming months, tightening supplies of linseed oil and meal correspondingly.... Camadian seed manufactures reacted to the downtrend and significantly reduced their production which is seen limiting the increase in Canadian flaxseed cultivation in 2024 despite the improved demand outlook. However, we expect a sizable increase in the 2025 spring plantings if the EU Commission sticks to the plan of ...

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 888 Jy
    • June 13
    • Palm olein RBD, fob Mal
    • 489 Jy/Ag
    • June 13
    • Rapeseed, Europe, cif Hamburg
    • 420 Jy
    • June 13
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg
    • 1068 Jy
    • June 13
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill