OIL WORLD

Rising Soybean Stocks

In July/Oct 2025 world exports of soybeans to China increased by an estimated 6.5-7.0 Mn T from a year earlier, despite no shipments from the USA. This is quite astounding and will lead to a corresponding increase in arrivals in China until end-Nov or mid-Dec, considering the time for shipping and unloading of 4-6 weeks.

Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay boosted exports of soybeans to China to 30.6 Mn T in July/Sept 2025 (an increase of 8.3 Mn T from a year earlier)...

Rising Consumption of Veg. Oils & Oilmeals

A further uptrend of vegetable oil production is shaping up in key North African countries in 2025/26, primarily of soya oil. However, the five countries analysed here currently still have to satisfy approximately 80% of their consumption of oils and fats with imports.

The coverage of North African vegetable oil import requirements will be complicated this season by smaller than expected sunflower oil export supplies, diminishing exports of soya oil and uncertainties surrounding biofuel policies and thus palm oil export volumes in Indonesia....

Rising Import Requirements Contrasting With Limited Export Supplies

Vegetable oil import requirements are expected to increase in the season 2025/26 in some key countries. In India, domestic veg. oil production is forecast to decline sizably and stocks at the start of this season are approximately 0.7 Mn T lower than a year ago.....

Taken together, we forecast world imports of eight oils to increase by to a new high this season. From today's perspective it will be a challenge to bring trade volumes to the outlined levels. Tighter than expected export supplies have already triggered sizable increases of sunflower oil prices in recent weeks....Tightening global supplies of soya oil will also result from sharply rising consumption in the USA, driven by increasing US biofuel production and policies favouring domestic feedstock ...Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

EU Rapeseed Meal Prices Under Pressure

This year’s sharply higher EU rapeseed crop and attractive processing margins due to rallying rapeseed oil prices pushed EU rapeseed crushings above initial expectations in July/Sept 2025. Weakness in soya meal prices as well as rising export supplies of rapeseed/canola meal (primarily in Canada and Ukraine) additionally weighed on prices....

S. America Boosting Exports to China

Soybean trade flows to China are currently unusually large and up sharply from last year, although none have been shipped from the US. Soybean exports of 5 countries to China were boosted by 2.8 Mn T or 42% on the year in August and by 3.1 Mn T or 54% in September.  

Total Chinese soybean imports will therefore be sufficiently large in the next 2-3 months, even without US soybeans...

World Production Declining This Year

During the past three months our estimates of biodiesel/HVO production have been scaled back for the USA and the EU-27 but increased for Indonesia and Brazil. The net effect is a minor downward revision of our global production estimate to 61.8 Mn T. This implies a decline by 2.4 Mn T from a year ago compared to an uninterrupted increase during the preceding nine years when the average annual growth reached 3.8 Mn T. 

This setback is clearly reflected in a slowdown in the growth of world consumption of 17 oils and fats to an estimated 3.3 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2025 (versus 7.9 Mn T in 2024), implying a sizable increase in non-energy uses, primarily for food...

Domestic Palm Oil Usage Set to Reach a New High in 2025

Booming biodiesel production is seen raising total Indonesian palm oil use to a record 23.1 Mn T in calendar year 2025, thus more than tripling within 10 years....