Global Area May Decline by 2 Mn ha

The area under soybeans will be reduced worldwide in the 2025/26 season. During the past 20 years a decline occurred only three times, i.e. in 2019/20 (down 2.1 Mn ha from a year earlier), in 2011/12 (down 0.1 Mn ha) and in 2007/08 (down 2.5 Mn ha).

Another decline in the soybean area is set to occur in 2025/26. In the northern hemisphere, farmers have already reduced soybean plantings, primarily in the USA (down 2.5 Mn ha) as well as in Ukraine, the EU and India. Plantings will also be reduced in Argentina...

Veg. Oil Imports Seen Rising in 2025/26

Based on tentative area and yield estimates, we currently expect Indian oilseed production in 2025/26 to decline slightly from the relatively high level achieved last season. Not only stocks of rapeseed but also those of soybeans have diminished during the past two seasons, additionally curtailing oilseed crushings in the upcoming season. 

Vegetable oil import requirements are tentatively estimated at a new high of 18.0 Mn T next season, an increase of 1.6 Mn T. The prospective increase of supplies in the key exporting countries will favour a recovery of Indian sunflower oil imports to 3.4–3.5 Mn T...

Canola Export Prospects Deteriorating in 2025/26

China’s announcement of a preliminary 76% import duty on Canadian canola with effect from Aug 14 has delivered a severe blow to Canadian farmers ahead of the 2025 harvest, with new-crop canola prices on the ICE (Nov position) plummeting to a 4-month low ...The latest measure, based on the preliminary results of an anti-dumping probe launched in Sept 2024, comes on top of the 100% duty on canola oil and meal, virtually closing the door to the Chinese market for Canadian canola....

Indonesian Exports of Palm Oil Gaining Momentum

Indonesian exports of crude and processed palm oils increased sharply to a multi-year high of 3.0 Mn T in June, bringing the year-on-year growth in April/June to 0.6 Mn T....

Disposals of palm oil have increased sizably in recent months, favoured by recovering production. Several large plantations reported double-digit growth rates in crude palm oil output in April/June 2025...

Crop Damage in the Black Sea Region

Sunflowerseed production will recover in the Black Sea region, but it will not live up to initial expectations, limiting the recovery in world production and export supplies of sunflower oil in 2025/26......

At the moment sunflower oil consumers are apparently not well covered. Many consumers have reduced old-crop stocks and hesitate to cover their needs for Oct/Dec in expectation of lower prices. However, the price setback may turn out smaller than currently anticipated and may even result in a squeeze....More details in the WEEKLY...

Argentine Soya Crush Forecast to Decline by 1-2 Mn T in Sept/March

There is a high probability of a year-on-year decline in Argentine soybean crushings in Sept/March 2025/26....One constraint is to be seen in finding a home for the prospective increase in world export supplies of soya meal.......

 

Soybean Prices Seeking New Lows Amid Ample Supplies

The prospective supply & demand fundamentals for the 2025/26 season can be described by a further increase in production of soybeans, increasing crushings and accumulating soybean stocks in the fourth consecutive year...Current ample world supplies of soybeans and the outlook of another record crop in South America in early 2026 triggered additional price weakness in the cash and futures markets....

World production and crushings of oilseeds other than soybeans will recover in 2025/26 under the lead of sunflowerseed. Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates for all 10 major oilseeds in the MONTHLY report....