World Production Seen Increasing by 1.0 Mn T in 2023/24

The world market is preparing for a normalization of groundnut disposals in Argentina, following last year's crop failure which trimmed Argentine exports by 22% and crushings by 47% in April/March 2023/24....World production of groundnuts is currently estimated at 34.6 Mn T (shelled) in the season 2023/24. The production increase of 1.0 Mn T is partly offset by relatively low groundnut stocks at the start of this season....

Record UCO Imports Pressuring SBO Prices

Record imports of used cooking oil (UCO) in March have at least temporarily changed the bullish sentiment in the US vegetable oil market.....Imports of UCO more than doubled in March, bringing the cumulation since Oct to a record 1.1 Mn T compared to 0.4 Mn T in Oct/March 2022/23....

Record supplies of UCO explain why US consumption of oils & fats virtually stagnated in March and increased by “only” 0.3 Mn T in Jan/March 2024 while US biodiesel output increased by 10% and 0.7 Mn T... More details in the WEEKLY...

World Production Is Seen Losing Momentum in April/Sept

The year-on-year decline in world production of palm oil by an estimated 0.7–0.8 Mn T in Oct/March 2023/24 was more than offset by a massive increase in production of seed oils in the vicinity of 3.8 Mn T. The latter was  a result of unusually large increases in sunflower oil, soya oil and rapeseed oil, in this order....

Diverging trends are shaping up in the second half of this season: Palm oil production  is seen returning to an at least moderate growth path while the increase in combined output of 7 seed oils is expected to shrink to 1.0 Mn T....

World Production Revised Upward

World production of 7 oilseeds is now estimated to rise to 626.8 Mn T in 2023/24, which is an upward revision by 1.6 Mn T from a month earlier and 19.8 Mn T above last season. We expect another global oilseed production surplus for the second consecutive year, resulting in an increase of stocks to 125 Mn T at the end of this season ....

In Jan/March 2024, world crushings of 7 oilseeds increased by 8.6 Mn T or 7.3% on the year to 126.9 Mn T. This compares with year-on-year increases of 4.0 Mn T in Oct/Dec 2023 and 5.9 Mn T in the July/Sept 2023 quarter. It is a confirmation that world demand for seed oils and oilmeals increased sizably in recent months ....

World Exports Set to Decline Seasonally

World exports of sunflower oil have peaked and started to decline seasonally. They will be falling below the year-ago levels from June onward, which has already started to be reflected in a strengthening of sun oil prices relative to soya oil and palm oil. In the second half of this season, world exports of sunflower oil are seen falling slightly below the year-ago level by 0.2-0.3 Mn T in contrast to the substantial year-on-year increase in Oct/March 2023/24....

Chinese Soybean Imports Revised Upward

We estimate total Chinese soybean imports at 47.4 Mn T in Oct/March 2023/24, which is a new high and 2.3 Mn T above a year earlier. Reported Chinese import data are much lower at only 41.5 Mn T. We consider the reported imports of US soybeans to be incomplete and assume that actual imports were approximately six million tonnes higher at ...in Oct/March 2023/24...

Rising Demand for non-GM Soybeans is Boosting Production Africa

Production of soybeans in selected African countries increased sharply to a record of an estimated 6.5 Mn T in 2022/23, compared to 2.5 Mn T ten years earlier....Soybean exports of key African countries reached a record 1.8-1.9 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2023, more than a doubling within two years.....