OIL WORLD

EU Rape Meal Imports Up Sharply in July/Sept

US Soybean Export Prospects Still Highly Uncertain

The resumption of Chinese purchases of US soybeans has hardly changed the global supply & demand fundamentals. There will still be a global production surplus in soybeans in Sept/Aug 2025/26....

While US soybean exports to China will be resumed in December, shipments to the rest of the world are seen slowing down owing to the loss of  price competitiveness vis-a-vis South American soybeans....

Palm Oil Production Prospects Deteriorated for 2026

A change is underway in the palm oil market from comfortable supplies & depressed prices to declining stocks, tightening supplies & appreciating prices in Jan/March and the full calendar year 2026. Global palm oil production prospects have deteriorated and if our new forecast for next year materializes, the upward potential for palm oil prices in the months ahead could be substantial...

Contrary to earlier expectations of a year-on-year increase in 2026, we now anticipate crude palm oil output in Indonesia to decline to 49.0 Mn T next year... More details in the OIL WORLD Weekly....

Tightness Easing Only Slowly

World crushings of sunflowerseed are expected to continue to decline from a year earlier in Sept/Dec 2025 by probably 0.5-0.8 Mn T. However, a change is underway and we expect a recovery in sunflowerseed crushings by 2.5-3.0 Mn T on the year in Jan/Aug 2026. This assumes a pick-up in farmer selling, probably triggered by the prospective sharp increase in Argentine supplies and export availability in 2026...

Rising Soybean Stocks

In July/Oct 2025 world exports of soybeans to China increased by an estimated 6.5-7.0 Mn T from a year earlier, despite no shipments from the USA. This is quite astounding and will lead to a corresponding increase in arrivals in China until end-Nov or mid-Dec, considering the time for shipping and unloading of 4-6 weeks.

Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay boosted exports of soybeans to China to 30.6 Mn T in July/Sept 2025 (an increase of 8.3 Mn T from a year earlier)...

Rising Consumption of Veg. Oils & Oilmeals

A further uptrend of vegetable oil production is shaping up in key North African countries in 2025/26, primarily of soya oil. However, the five countries analysed here currently still have to satisfy approximately 80% of their consumption of oils and fats with imports.

The coverage of North African vegetable oil import requirements will be complicated this season by smaller than expected sunflower oil export supplies, diminishing exports of soya oil and uncertainties surrounding biofuel policies and thus palm oil export volumes in Indonesia....

Rising Import Requirements Contrasting With Limited Export Supplies

Vegetable oil import requirements are expected to increase in the season 2025/26 in some key countries. In India, domestic veg. oil production is forecast to decline sizably and stocks at the start of this season are approximately 0.7 Mn T lower than a year ago.....

Taken together, we forecast world imports of eight oils to increase by to a new high this season. From today's perspective it will be a challenge to bring trade volumes to the outlined levels. Tighter than expected export supplies have already triggered sizable increases of sunflower oil prices in recent weeks....Tightening global supplies of soya oil will also result from sharply rising consumption in the USA, driven by increasing US biofuel production and policies favouring domestic feedstock ...Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...