Soybean Disposals Rising in June

Soybean disposals of 7 major supplying countries increased by 5.4 Mn T or 20% from a year earlier in the month of June....Global dependence on soybeans will continue to rise in July/Dec 2024 as well as in Jan/June 2025....

Production Losses in the Black Sea Region Will Further Tighten Supplies in 2024/25

Detrimental weather conditions in recent weeks threaten to curb world supplies of sunflower oil and rapeseed oil sizably below expectations....The looming reductions in supplies of sunflower oil and rapeseed oil can be compensated only partly by soya oil. Crushings of the prospective ample global soybean supplies can be stepped up only to an extent which does not result in excessive supplies of soya meal.

The growth in world production of eight major vegetable oils is thus seen diminishing to only around 2.8 Mn T or 1.3% next season, against 5.7 Mn T or almost 3% shaping up in 2023/24....

EU Rapeseed Shortage in 2024/25

Detrimental weather conditions in recent weeks have reportedly taken their toll on rapeseed yields in various key producing countries in the EU. Market participants will closely monitor harvest progress reports in the next 3 weeks, but it can no longer be excluded that this year’s EU rapeseed crop may fall to or even below 17.6 Mn T....

Reduced stocks carried into the 2024/25 season are likely to widen the setback in EU rapeseed supplies to 3.0 Mn T, making demand-rationing inevitable ...

Soybean Ending Stocks Seen Reaching 4-Year High

We expect US soybean disposals to be up from last year in June/Aug 2024, but still estimate this season’s ending stocks at a 4-year high of 10.3 Mn T (against 7.2 a year earlier), thus contributing to a sharp increase in next season’s US supplies...

Global Production Deficit in Veg Oils in 2024/25

World supplies of soybeans are ample and crushings are increasing sharply, raising export supplies of soya meal and oil. On the assumption of about normal weather conditions, world production of soybeans is estimated to rise steeply by close to 28 Mn T next season and, most likely, result in another global production surplus in the third consecutive season.

If the weather stays largely favourable, there is a high likelihood that soybean prices will come under pressure and fall below US-$ 11.00 per bushel, if soybean crops in North America this autumn and in South America in early 2025 turn out close to or above our current estimates. Farmers will have to consider the bearish supply fundamentals in their selling policy.

In contrast, global supplies of sunflowerseed and rapeseed (including canola) are currently forecast to decline by a combined 4 Mn T in 2024/25, thus enforcing a decline in crushings. This follows unusually large year-on-year increases in crushings of the two soft seeds in 2022/23 and 2023/24 by a staggering 18 Mn T combined.

While the setback in production of the two meals can easily be compensated by rising supplies of soya meal, the production shortfall of the respective two oils will be more difficult to cope with worldwide, particularly if our current forecast of only a below-normal growth in palm oil materialize. A global deficit in combined production of sunflower oil and rapeseed oil is already expected to occur in July/Sept 2024 and will continue - probably aggravate - in the 24/25 season, leading to a decline in stocks and, most likely, independent strength of oils & fats prices. More details in the just released OIL WORLD Annual 2024....

World Supplies Seen Tightening in 2024/25

Consumers and producers in the vegetable oil sector will have to prepare for tightening supplies, probably necessitating a sizable reduction of stocks in the course of the season 2024/25. While there are still many uncertainties regarding production and processing of oilseeds as well as palm oil output, a significant slowdown of the production growth in the vegetable oil market seems inevitable next season....

The biggest changes are shaping up in output of sunflower oil and rapeseed oil with a prospective decline by a combined 0.5 Mn T, versus a boost of approximately 2.4 Mn T in 2023/24. The extent to which a relatively large increase in soya oil output can be maintained will be a key variable to watch....

World Supplies of Oilmeals Forecast to Remain Ample in 2024/25

World production of soya meal estimated to increase by 9-10 Mn T while that of the 11 other oilmeals is likely to virtually stagnate....

Record soybean supplies and the prospective considerable slowdown of the combined growth in world production of sunflower, rapeseed and palm oils will raise the world market’s dependence on soya oil in the 2024/25 season. However, a further sizeable increase in soybean crushings is likely to create ample if not burdensome supplies of soya meal in 2024/25....Soya meal prices are expected to come under additional pressure in July/Sept and in Oct/Dec 2024 ...