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e-Mail: info@oilworld.de
The Independent Forecasting Service for Oilseeds, Oils & Meals
Providing Primary Information --Professional Analysis-- Unbiased Opinion

++++ Latest OIL WORLD Headlines ++++

More details and background analysis are provided in the various Publications of OIL WORLD, primarily in the WEEKLY and the FLASH

Dec 12: 
Revised supply, demand and price forecasts released for this season for oilseeds, oils & fats as well as oilmeals in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of Dec 12 together with a comprehensive statistical supplement....

Revised supply, demand and price forecasts released for this season for oilseeds, oils & fats as well as oilmeals in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of Dec 12 together with a comprehensive statistical supplement. Our new forecasts for Oct/Sept 2014/15 point to a significant slowdown of world production of 17 oils & fats, likely to rise by only 3.1 Mn T or 1.6%, which is in clear contrast to the boost of 11.5 Mn T or 5.9% last season. This means that oils & fats consumption has to be rationed in the current season. Their prices will have to develop sufficiently high premiums vis-a-vis energy prices to ration consumption in the energy market and leave sufficient supplies to satisfy rising food demand worldwide. – In contrast, oilmeal supplies will be relatively more ample with a significant production growth of 12.2 Mn T or 4.0%, leading to sizably rising export supplies and consumption, primarily in Jan/Sept 2015.

More details are given in the MONTHLY of Dec 12....



Dec 05: 
Russia: Surging domestic prices amid a declining Rubel as well as fears of reduced production in 2015 will probably result in interference of the Russian Government in the wheat export market....

In Russia the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance has already made an official statement, instructing its regional divisions to impose additional measures of quality control. This may be one of the possible non-tariff measures to slow down Russian wheat exports in coming months. However, several market observers do not exclude the implementation of export quotas, primarily if Russian winter wheat crop losses exceed expectations.

Update of grain exports of Russia and Ukraine for July/Nov 2014 in the WEEKLY of Dec 5......



Nov 28: 
EU-28: Major Slowdown in Usage of Oils & Fats in the Energy Sector in 2014/15...

We see a major slowdown in usage of oils and fats in the European energy sector in 2014/15, which absorbed a large portion of imported palm oil in the preceding season thanks to very attractive prices. Hence, a noticeable decline of palm oil exports to Europe is to be expected in 2014/15, following the boost to a record level last season...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Nov 28.....



Nov 21: 
World Oilseed Supplies Seen Rising by 31 Mn T or 5.5%...

World supplies of 7 oilseeds will be more ample than expected in 2014/15. Higher stocks at the start of the season and the upward revision in production has lifted world supplies to a new high of 593.6 Mn T, up 31 Mn T on top of the boost of 36 Mn T registered last season.
There are ample supplies available worldwide. But lack of farmer selling and logistical constraints still made it difficult to fully satisfy consumer demand in the producing and importing countries in the past 10-12 weeks...

OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 21 November 2014

Oct 24: 
Dependence on soybeans will rise in Oct/Sept 2014/15......

With production and crushings of softseeds declining, soybean crushings have to fill the gap. We consider it necessary that world soybean crushings will be boosted by at least 15 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2014/15 compared with an increase of 12.0 Mn T in 2013/14. Crushings of the 6 oilseeds other than soybeans will suffer a decline by around 2.0 Mn T this season. As rapeseed and sunflowerseed are high oil-yielding seeds, this will slow the growth in world production of vegetable oils. Hence, there is significantly less scope for expanding vegetable oil use in the food and energy sectors than in 2013/14...

OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 24 October 2014

Oct 17: 
ARGENTINA: The government may set up a state-owned company to export agricultural commodities...

This at least seems to be currently discussed (behind closed doors). It could be similar to the "Junta Nacional de Granos" which had been installed in the seventies and eighties, but was closed by decree of the former President Carlos Menem in 1991 because it was considered uneffective. -- But now a corresponding agency could be reactivated... OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 17 October 2014

Oct 13: 
Combined World Production and Crushings of Sunseed & Rapeseed Declining in 2014/15...

For Oct/Sept 2014/15 we now expect only a moderate growth in rapeseed processing and a decline by 1.6 Mn T in sunflowerseed. This is in clear contrast to the unusually large increase of 9.5 Mn T in combined world crushings of the two softseeds in Oct/Sept 2013/14...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 10 October 2014

Oct 02: 
INDIA: Imports of Vegetable Oils Seen Increasing to a Record 12.2-12.3 Mn T in 2014/15...

With consumption of the 8 key vegetable oils estimated at 18.4 Mn T in 2014/15, India will be forced to further raise imports to a new high of around 12.2 Mn T, up 0.5 Mn T or 4%. India will thus need to import at least two thirds of its vegetable oil requirements in the new season, meaning that the import dependence will stay near the unprecedented level of 2013/14...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 2 October 2014

Sep 29: 
Up-to-date Statistics Released for Key Commodities and Countries...

We compiled up-to-date statistics with our forecasts for 2014/15, inlcuding supply and demand, trade details, area and production, monthly prices etc for the following commodities/countries:

  • Soybeans, oil & meal

  • Palm oil


  • Rapeseed, oil & meal


  • Sunseed, oil & meal


  • EU-28

  • India

  • China

    The data are based on the MONTHLY of 19 September 2014 and the Data Base CD ROM released Sept 26. More info under www.oilworld.de/statistics

    Sep 29: 
    OIL WORLD Data Base September 2014 Released...

    on CD-ROM

    -- Date of Release: 26 September 2014 --

    2014/15 oilseed production as well as world supply & demand of oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals, all by country

    Take advantage of our reliable, unbiased and comprehensive information and forecasts. For a better understanding of current market developments and prospects.

    • The OIL WORLD Data Base on CD-ROM provides the information which gives you a competitive edge. It includes much more data than can be published in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY and WEEKLY:

    • Forecasts of 2014/15 oilseed area. yields and production and world supply and demand outlook for oils/fats and oilmeals for next season!

      Estimates of 2014/15 world supply & demand for all oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals with breakdown by country.

    • Quarterly world production, trade, consumption and stocks estimates up to Oct/Dec 2014.
       

    The CD-ROM provides oilseed crop and processing statistics as well as supply & demand balances for oils/fats, oilmeals etc. for the 64 most important countries. This comprises the EU-28 as well as the major countries of the CIS, Central Europe, America, Asia, Africa and Oceania.

    Monthly prices from Jan 1999 up to September 2014 for the 6 major oilseeds, 15 oils/fats and 8 oilmeals.

    • Monthly crush, production, trade and stocks data for key countries until Sept or Dec 2015. Trade statistics are provided for the major exporting countries with breakdown by country of destination and for the leading importing countries by country of origin.
      The Commodity Sections for Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals provide the supply and demand developments as well as stocks,with breakdown by major countries. The forecasts cover the season 2014/15 for crop production and area as well as world supply & demand of the major oilseeds and products. The time periods in most tables are the 5 seasons until 2014/15 and the 3 calendar years ending 2014. A quarterly breakdown is given in the respective Summary Tables of each commodity. Monthly Price Surveys are given for most oilseeds, oils and meals. The section 'Other Commodities' provides world production statistics for red meat and poultry.
       
    • For more info see www.oilworld.de/database

      Sep 26: 
      World Crushings of Soybeans Expected to Rise by a Record 15.5 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2014/15...

      Global dependence on soybeans will start increasing already in the Oct/Dec 2014 quarter and accelerate in Jan/Sept 2015 as supplies and crushings of all the other 9 oilseeds are contracting.
      The declining share of processing of high oil-yielding oilseeds will curb the growth of world production of seed oils to only 2.5% in Oct/Sept 2014/15 compared with the year-on-year increase of 6.1% in 2013/14. But under the lead of soybean meal, world production of oilseed meals is seen rising by 4.2%...

      OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 26 September 2014

      Sep 19: 
      World Oilseed Supplies Seen Rising Sharply by 34.5 Mn T or 6% in 2014/15...

      During the past four weeks we have made an upward revision in our world oilseed production estimate by 3.7 Mn T, mainly on account of the USA (up 2.4 Mn T), Brazil (up 2.0), India (up 0.7) and the EU-28 (up 0.4). While the revisions in the USA and Brazil were mainly on account of soybeans, the Indian revision occurred in cottonseed..
      World production of 10 oilseeds is set to reach 519.7 Mn T in 2014/15, 21.5 Mn T on top of last season’s record. It is the third consecutive increase in production. Although we expect that world oilseed consumption will show another above-average increase, the production surplus will again be very impressive at around 17 Mn T...

      OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 19 September 2014


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