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More details and background analysis are provided in the various
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The major bullish factor for oils & fats is to be seen in the substantial reduction of world stocks by 4.2 Mn T in Jan/Aug 2016. Most of the reduction occured in palm oil...
Led by palm oil, most vegetable oils reversed the declining price trend during most of June and July. Palm oil was the price leader upward and skyrocketed by US$ 130-140 in the three weeks to Aug 18. Also lauric oils rebounded with palmkernel oil up 12% and coconut oil up 10%, while palm oil jumped by 21-23% in the 3-week period. Soya oil was also pulled higher with Argentine prices up US$ 90-100 and US export prices up US$ 110-120.
Substantially Higher US Exports of Soybeans & Corn Required in July/Dec 2016...
Plunging exports from South America will require a boost in US soybean exports to around 37.0 Mn T in July/Dec 2016, up 6.4 Mn from last year. Exports more than doubled from last year to about 2.6 Mn T in July. We expect exports in August to be at least 2.6 Mn T and in September at least 3.0 Mn T. However, we would not be surprised if actual exports this and next month. For July/Dec 2016 we estimate total US corn exports to reach at least 26.5 Mn T, up 7.0 Mn from a year ago.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 12 August 2016...
Spectacular Growth of World Sunflowerseed Crushings & Trade in 2016/17...
We anticipate sharp increases in sunflowerseed crushings as well as in sunflower oil and meal supplies worldwide next season. At the moment only a very tentative estimate can be made and in today’s analysis we forecast world crushings to reach an all-time high of 40.9 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2016/17, with significant gains not only in the major producing countries but also in many importing countries where sunflowerseed will be processed partly as an alternative to rapeseed & canola. The global sunflowerseed trade volume is estimated to be boosted to a record 2.5 Mn T next season.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 5 August 2016...
Depleted Vegetable Oil Stocks Will Be A Bullish Factor in Coming Months and in 2016/17...
In the season Oct/Sept 2015/16 stocks will be
reduced much more sharply than expected hitherto.
World production of 8 vegetable oils is declining by 1.3
Mn T, while consumption is increasing by 4.7 Mn T.
This creates an unprecedented production shortfall.
The decline in world stocks reaches alarming proportions...
OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 29 July 2016...
World supplies of sunflowerseed and products will exceed expectations in 2016/17.....
World supplies of sunflowerseed and products will exceed expectations in 2016/17. We have made upward revisions in our crop estimates for the CIS countries, now expecting combined production to increase by 2.1 Mn T from last year.
World production of sunflowerseed is now seen to rise to 46 Mn T in 2016/17, assuming normal weather from now on, up substantially by 3.7 Mn T from 2015/16 and by 4.9 Mn T from 2014/15. Crushings of sunflowerseed as well as supplies of sun oil and meal will have to be revised upward. We will publish our updated supply, demand and price forecasts for 2016/17 in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of July 29.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 22 July 2016...
Decline in Chinese Soybean Imports Considered Likely in 2016/17......
The next season Aug/July 2016/17 could be the first time in 15 years that Chinese imports of soybeans will be declining. There are still a lot of uncertainties but we currently do not rule out the possibility that imports drop to 80-82 Mn T in the next 12 months from an estimated 83.3 Mn T in 2015/16. The key factors contributing to this development are discussed in detail in the latest WEEKLY report. Still, Chinese soybean crushings will probably increase by about 5 Mn T from a year earlier in the new season.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 15 July 2016...
Improved Rapeseed Crop Prospects in Parts of Europe But Demand-
Rationing Still Inevitable in 2016/17...
Rapeseed production is likely to decline somewhat
less severe than assumed hitherto in several EU
member states and the CIS countries this year, slightly
reducing the need for demand-rationing in the 2016/17
season. Our revised crop estimate for the European
Union is 21.5 Mn T, about 0.2-0.3 Mn T higher than
expected before, but still a three-year low and down 0.9
Mn T on the year...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 8 July 2016...
OIL WORLD Data Base JUNE 2016 Released...
-- Date of Release: 23 June 2016 --
2016/17 oilseed production as well as world supply & demand of oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals, all by country
Take advantage of our reliable, unbiased and comprehensive
information and forecasts. For a better understanding of current market developments and prospects.
The OIL WORLD Data Base on CD-ROM provides the information
which gives you a competitive edge. It includes much more data than can
be published in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY and WEEKLY:
Forecasts of 2016/17 oilseed area. yields and production and world supply and demand outlook for oils/fats and oilmeals for next season!
Up-to-date estimates of 2015/16 world supply & demand for all oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals with breakdown by country.
Quarterly world production, trade, consumption and stocks estimates up to July/Sept 2016.
The CD-ROM provides oilseed crop and processing statistics as
well as supply & demand balances for oils/fats, oilmeals etc.
64 most important countries. This comprises the
EU-28 as well as the major countries of the CIS, Central Europe,
America, Asia, Africa and Oceania.
Monthly prices from Jan 2001 up to June 2016 for the 6 major
oilseeds, 15 oils/fats and 8 oilmeals.
Monthly crush, production, trade and stocks data for key countries
until Sept or Dec 2016. Trade statistics are provided for the major
exporting countries with breakdown by country of destination and for
the leading importing countries by country of origin.
The Commodity Sections for Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals provide the supply and demand developments as well as stocks,with breakdown by major countries. The forecasts cover the season 2016/17 for crop production and area as well as world supply & demand of the major oilseeds and products. The time periods in most tables are the 5 seasons until 2015/16 and the 3 calendar years ending 2015. A quarterly breakdown is given in the respective Summary Tables of each commodity. Monthly Price Surveys are given for most oilseeds, oils and meals. The section 'Other Commodities' provides world production statistics for red meat and poultry.
For more info see www.oilworld.de/database
The OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2016 has been released on May 27..
The OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2016 has been released on May 27. It includes the first OIL WORLD forecasts of world production, trade, consumption, stocks and prices for oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals for 2016/17. The compendium of world statistics comprises more than 700 pages. You are most welcome to request additional information. Orders can be made online...