++++ Latest OIL WORLD Headlines ++++
More details and background analysis are provided in the various
of OIL WORLD, primarily in the
Argentine biodiesel exports are picking up in May probably reaching 70-75 Thd T, the highest so far this year, but still trailing the year-ago level....
Argentine biodiesel exports are picking up in May probably reaching 70-75 Thd T, the highest so far this year, but still trailing the year-ago level. The USA will be the leading export destination in May.
Details in the OIL WORLD WEEKLY of May 15...
Ukraine sun oil exports declined noticeably by around 150 Thd T from last year in April. We expect a year-on-year decline ....
Ukraine sun oil exports declined noticeably by around 150 Thd T from last year in April. We expect a year-on-year decline of 0.6 Mn T in April/Sept 2015. Also world exports will be declining sizably, forcing consumers in many importing countries to shift to alternative vegetable oils, primarily soya oil and palm oil.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY May 8
On the demand side, India will be boosting vegetable oil imports by 1.4 Mn T to a new record in Oct/Sept 2014/15, according to our revised projection, as outlined in the MONTHLY of April 24....
First preliminary forecasts from India point to below-average monsoon rains in June/Sept 2015 for the second consecutive year. This is raising the possibility of another poor oilseed crop, keeping Indian vegetable oil import requirements extremely high in 2015/16.
On the other hand, Chinese imports of vegetable oils declined sharply so far this season. They have started to recover, but, overall, Chinese imports will be very low in 2014/15.
OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 24 April 2015...
A bounce in the soybean market failed to prop up soya meal prices in the latest week...
Despite the ample to partly burdensome global supplies, the market took a more upbeat view on soybeans in the latest week, sending July futures on the CBOT to a high of US-$ 9.79 per bushel at one point on Wednesday.
In contrast to soybeans, soya meal futures in Chicago finished almost unchanged in the latest week, losing share of the combined product value to soya oil. Major support for soya oil is likely to have been derived from the increased consumer interest lately, besides the impressive recovery of crude mineral oil values which rocketed by 12-13% on the ICE and NYMEX to fresh 2015 highs at the close of Apr 16. Other factors at play are discussed in detail in the WEEKLY...
Up-to-date Statistics Released for Key Commodities and Countries...
We compiled up-to-date statistics with our forecasts for 2014/15, inlcuding supply and demand, trade details, area and production, monthly prices etc for the following commodities/countries:
Soybeans, oil & meal
Rapeseed, oil & meal
Sunseed, oil & meal
The data are based on the MONTHLY of 27 March 2015 and the Data Base CD ROM released April 1.
More info under www.oilworld.de/statistics
Current Strength in Soybean & Meal Futures May Be Short-lived
Unless Weather Conditions Deteriorate...
Even if world production of soybeans declines
slightly or moderately, which we expect to occur
based on certain assumptions, world supplies of soybeans will remain
ample in 2015/16. We do not exclude that new lows will
be made in the Nov 2015 soybean contract sometime
in the weeks/months ahead, assuming normal weather
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 2 April 2015...
OIL WORLD Data Base March 2015 Released...
-- Date of Release: 1 April 2015 --
2014/15 oilseed production as well as world supply & demand of oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals, all by country
Take advantage of our reliable, unbiased and comprehensive
information and forecasts. For a better understanding of current market developments and prospects.
The OIL WORLD Data Base on CD-ROM provides the information
which gives you a competitive edge. It includes much more data than can
be published in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY and WEEKLY:
Forecasts of 2014/15 oilseed area. yields and production and world supply and demand outlook for oils/fats and oilmeals for next season!
Estimates of 2014/15 world supply & demand for all oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals with breakdown by country.
Quarterly world production, trade, consumption and stocks estimates up to July/Sept 2015.
The CD-ROM provides oilseed crop and processing statistics as
well as supply & demand balances for oils/fats, oilmeals etc.
64 most important countries. This comprises the
EU-28 as well as the major countries of the CIS, Central Europe,
America, Asia, Africa and Oceania.
Monthly prices from Jan 2000 up to March 2015 for the 6 major
oilseeds, 15 oils/fats and 8 oilmeals.
Monthly crush, production, trade and stocks data for key countries
until Sept or Dec 2015. Trade statistics are provided for the major
exporting countries with breakdown by country of destination and for
the leading importing countries by country of origin.
The Commodity Sections for Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals provide the supply and demand developments as well as stocks,with breakdown by major countries. The forecasts cover the season 2014/15 for crop production and area as well as world supply & demand of the major oilseeds and products. The time periods in most tables are the 5 seasons until 2014/15 and the 3 calendar years ending 2014. A quarterly breakdown is given in the respective Summary Tables of each commodity. Monthly Price Surveys are given for most oilseeds, oils and meals. The section 'Other Commodities' provides world production statistics for red meat and poultry.
For more info see www.oilworld.de/database
Declining Biodiesel Production
Severely Decimates the
Consumption Growth of
Oils & Fats...
We forecast total world consumption of oils & fats for food and non-food to increase by 4.3 Mn
T in 2014/15, less than half the increase registered last season.
Since demand for
food is likely to increase by more
than 4.3 Mn T, the world balance of
oils & fats will only be in equilibrium if
biodiesel production declines more or
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 27 March 2015...
Soybeans and soya meal found new 2015 lows in the latest week......
In contrast to the weakening soybean and soya meal prices, soya oil finished only slightly lower in the week ended Mar 19, staying above its January low and boosting the oil share of the combined product value on the CBOT to 32.4% from 30.9% on Mar 12, quite a remarkable change. Soya oil stayed at only a small premium to palm oil during the week in review, boding well for a shift in demand in favour of soya oil in a number of key veg. oil importing countries. The price competitiveness of palm oil has deteriorated pronouncedly also vis-a-vis rapeseed oil of late...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 20 March 2015...
Vegetable Oils Are Still the Laggard, While Oilmeal Prices Remain
Soya meal has been relatively firmer than soybeans
and oil since the start of this season. This is true
despite the unusually high world soybean production
and the prospective significant increase in stocks of
soybeans and meal this season...
Because of insufficient production and supplies of
palm oil and other vegetable oils this year, palm oil,
soya oil and rape oil prices have divorced from the
trend of fossil fuel prices. Thus, discretionary blending
of biodiesel has generally stopped. Also, admixture
mandates are currently not being fulfilled in Indonesia,
Brazil, Europe and other countries.
For 17 oils & fats we estimate world production to
rise only fractionally by 0.9% from a year earlier in
Jan/Sept 2015 (big losses in sun oil and olive oil and
insufficient production of palm oil, rapeseed oil and
other oils & fats)...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 13 March 2015...
India Seen Boosting Imports of Veg. Oils by 0.9-1.0 Mn T in 2014/15...
The demand for veg. oils is currently booming in
India, driven by strong economic growth, an increase of
the Indian middle class and low prices. This sets the
stage for an increase in total consumption of vegetable
oils by around 5% or 1.0 Mn T in 2014/15, the second
highest growth on record...
This contrasts with severely declining domestic
oilseed production and crushings, magnifying the
dependence on imports. We consider it likely that
imports are propelled to a record 12.6 Mn T this season,
up 0.9-1.0 Mn T...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 6 March 2015...
Soya Meal & Soybean Futures Appreciating on the CBOT in Reaction
to South American Export Delays...
Export delays of soybeans and soya meal in
South America are keeping arrivals in the importing
countries at lower than expected levels. There is now
increased nervousness among exporters, processors
and consumers with relatively small physical supplies
as well as among those who have short positions.
There is a lot of uncertainty about the duration of the
truckers strike in Brazil which is considered to be the
most serious in 15 years. On top of that, a strike of
truck drivers is looming in Argentina for the second half
of March, at a time when the country’s new soybean
crop will start moving...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Feb 27...
The dependence on soya oil will rise for the remainder of this season. There are ample supplies of soybeans available worldwide, although lack of farmer selling is still of concern. But soybeans as a meal seed....
The dependence on soya oil will rise for the remainder of this season. There are ample supplies of soybeans available worldwide, although lack of farmer selling is still of concern. But soybeans as a meal seed cannot solve a global oil supply deficit without creating a surplus in meals. Therefore, we expect that the oil share of the combined crush value will appreciate in coming months, at least moderately. We provide our revised supply & demand balances for all the major oilseeds, 8 veg. oils and 8 oilmeals, also broken down into individual quarters in the
OIL WORLD MONTHLY of February 20...
Linseed & Flaxseed: Large Supplies Still to Find a Home in
The market is heading for ample supplies in the
second half of this season, making prices in the linseed
complex vulnerable to a (pronounced) setback in
coming weeks and months. This conclusion is based on
the following bearish factors:
1) The linseed crop in Kazakhstan reached an
unprecedented 420 Thd T this season and, if this
number is confirmed, it will represent a huge growth of
42% from the preceding year...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Feb 13...