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More details and background analysis are provided in the various
of OIL WORLD, primarily in the
Declining Biodiesel Production
Severely Decimates the
Consumption Growth of
Oils & Fats...
We forecast total world consumption of oils & fats for food and non-food to increase by 4.3 Mn
T in 2014/15, less than half the increase registered last season.
Since demand for
food is likely to increase by more
than 4.3 Mn T, the world balance of
oils & fats will only be in equilibrium if
biodiesel production declines more or
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 27 March 2015...
Soybeans and soya meal found new 2015 lows in the latest week......
In contrast to the weakening soybean and soya meal prices, soya oil finished only slightly lower in the week ended Mar 19, staying above its January low and boosting the oil share of the combined product value on the CBOT to 32.4% from 30.9% on Mar 12, quite a remarkable change. Soya oil stayed at only a small premium to palm oil during the week in review, boding well for a shift in demand in favour of soya oil in a number of key veg. oil importing countries. The price competitiveness of palm oil has deteriorated pronouncedly also vis-a-vis rapeseed oil of late...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 20 March 2015...
Vegetable Oils Are Still the Laggard, While Oilmeal Prices Remain
Soya meal has been relatively firmer than soybeans
and oil since the start of this season. This is true
despite the unusually high world soybean production
and the prospective significant increase in stocks of
soybeans and meal this season...
Because of insufficient production and supplies of
palm oil and other vegetable oils this year, palm oil,
soya oil and rape oil prices have divorced from the
trend of fossil fuel prices. Thus, discretionary blending
of biodiesel has generally stopped. Also, admixture
mandates are currently not being fulfilled in Indonesia,
Brazil, Europe and other countries.
For 17 oils & fats we estimate world production to
rise only fractionally by 0.9% from a year earlier in
Jan/Sept 2015 (big losses in sun oil and olive oil and
insufficient production of palm oil, rapeseed oil and
other oils & fats)...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 13 March 2015...
India Seen Boosting Imports of Veg. Oils by 0.9-1.0 Mn T in 2014/15...
The demand for veg. oils is currently booming in
India, driven by strong economic growth, an increase of
the Indian middle class and low prices. This sets the
stage for an increase in total consumption of vegetable
oils by around 5% or 1.0 Mn T in 2014/15, the second
highest growth on record...
This contrasts with severely declining domestic
oilseed production and crushings, magnifying the
dependence on imports. We consider it likely that
imports are propelled to a record 12.6 Mn T this season,
up 0.9-1.0 Mn T...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 6 March 2015...
Soya Meal & Soybean Futures Appreciating on the CBOT in Reaction
to South American Export Delays...
Export delays of soybeans and soya meal in
South America are keeping arrivals in the importing
countries at lower than expected levels. There is now
increased nervousness among exporters, processors
and consumers with relatively small physical supplies
as well as among those who have short positions.
There is a lot of uncertainty about the duration of the
truckers strike in Brazil which is considered to be the
most serious in 15 years. On top of that, a strike of
truck drivers is looming in Argentina for the second half
of March, at a time when the country’s new soybean
crop will start moving...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Feb 27...
The dependence on soya oil will rise for the remainder of this season. There are ample supplies of soybeans available worldwide, although lack of farmer selling is still of concern. But soybeans as a meal seed....
The dependence on soya oil will rise for the remainder of this season. There are ample supplies of soybeans available worldwide, although lack of farmer selling is still of concern. But soybeans as a meal seed cannot solve a global oil supply deficit without creating a surplus in meals. Therefore, we expect that the oil share of the combined crush value will appreciate in coming months, at least moderately. We provide our revised supply & demand balances for all the major oilseeds, 8 veg. oils and 8 oilmeals, also broken down into individual quarters in the
OIL WORLD MONTHLY of February 20...
Linseed & Flaxseed: Large Supplies Still to Find a Home in
The market is heading for ample supplies in the
second half of this season, making prices in the linseed
complex vulnerable to a (pronounced) setback in
coming weeks and months. This conclusion is based on
the following bearish factors:
1) The linseed crop in Kazakhstan reached an
unprecedented 420 Thd T this season and, if this
number is confirmed, it will represent a huge growth of
42% from the preceding year...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Feb 13...
Shrinking US tallow exports partly offset by other countries in Jan/Dec 2014...
Tallow prices are likely to be determined by diverging developments in coming months. World supplies are expected to tighten further in view of the prospective ongoing downtrend of tallow production in the US and a probable decline of beef slaughtering in Australia from the record levels seen in recent months. At the same time, the usage of tallow for production of biodiesel has been affected lately by low palm oil prices and even more so by the weakness in crude mineral oil...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Feb 6..
World Rapeseed & Canola Supplies to Shrink in 2015/16...
We currently forecast world production of rapeseed
and canola to turn out between 65 and 67 Mn T in
2015/16, representing the second consecutive decline.
This compares with 68.5 Mn T produced this season
and 69.9 Mn T in 2013/14. Also the area will be reduced,
falling approximately 1.4 Mn ha short of the
record achieved three years ago...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Jan 30...
Up-to-date Statistics Released for Key Commodities and Countries...
We compiled up-to-date statistics with our forecasts for 2014/15, inlcuding supply and demand, trade details, area and production, monthly prices etc for the following commodities/countries:
Soybeans, oil & meal
Rapeseed, oil & meal
The data are based on the MONTHLY of 12 December 2014 and the Data Base CD ROM released Dec 19.
More info under www.oilworld.de/statistics