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More details and background analysis are provided in the various
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Soya meal consumers in Asia, Europe and elsewhere will be faced with smaller than expected world production and export supplies ..
Soya meal consumers in Asia, Europe and elsewhere will be faced with smaller than expected world production and export supplies. For April/Sept 2016 we now estimate world production of soya meal by only 3.3 Mn T from a year earlier (following a boost of 6.8 Mn T in the first half of this season). World exports of soya meal will at best stagnate but probably decline slightly from last year to 35.5 Mn T, primarily on account of smaller than previously assumed shipments from Argentina...
In the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of May 20 we present our latest global supply & demand analyses for soya meal (with breakdown by country) as well as for other oilmeals.....
The magnitude of the global production shortage in oils & fats is apparently not yet fully acknowledged by market participants ..
The magnitude of the global production shortage in oils & fats is apparently not yet fully acknowledged by market participants. What we are currently experiencing in the world market is unprecedented: for the first time ever world production of 17 oils & fats is set to decline from a year earlier. This decline is rather large...
In Jan/June 2016 world consumption of 17 oils & fats is likely to exceed production by 3.5 Mn T (probably even more), resulting in a corresponding massive decline in world stocks. This is going to have impacts on prices of palm oil, soya oil and other oils & fats, as we discuss in the OIL WORLD WEEKLY of May 13..
We will provide further information and updated forecasts in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of May 20.
World supplies of rapeseed & canola will probably continue to decline in 2016/17 ..
World supplies of rapeseed & canola will probably continue to decline in 2016/17 because of lower than expected production in the EU-28 as well as year-on-year declines in Ukraine and China. Big swing factors to watch will be Canada and Australia. We believe that the Canadian canola plantings will be increased this spring (contrary to the decline in the intentions report). But there is some concern about the current low soil moisture supplies in the Canadian Prairies.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 6 May 2016...
World soybean stocks will fall below the year-ago level as of end-August 2016...
World soybean stocks will fall below the year-ago level as of end-August 2016, contrary to earlier expectations of an increase. The downward revisions will be mainly on account of the USA (larger than expected exports and crushings in May/Aug 2016) and South America (due to the lower soybean crop). Our revised estimates will be given in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of April 29.
Soybean has improved its competitiveness relative to corn. The soybean/corn price ratio has recovered noticeably since mid-March when the US planting intentions survey was taken. As of April 21 the soybean/corn price ratio had recovered to 2.65 in the May contract and 2.54 for the new crop (Nov soybeans/Dec corn) compared with 2.42 and 2.33 in mid-March. Will US farmers shift some of their intended corn area to soybeans? Or has the improvement in the competitiveness of soybeans come too late?
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 22 April 2016...
MALAYSIA: Palm Oil Output Seen Declining to 4-Year
Low in 2016...
The latest production results and ongoing dryness prompted us to reduce our estimate of
Malaysian palm oil output in Jan/Dec 2016 to 19.2 Mn T, 4% less than a year ago and probably
the lowest level in four years.
The ongoing dry spell in key palm oil areas of Malaysia will affect production with a time lag
of 6-9 months. Sabah and Johor received only 40–50% of normal rainfall during April 1-10,
aggravating the drought stress to palm trees
after the deficient rainfall throughout most of
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 18 April 2016...
Market Needs to Reconcile Shortage of Vegetable Oils
with Glut of Soybeans...
Soya oil is likely to follow palm oil upward to
finance a growing share of the soybean crush. This
may not prevent soybean prices from declining as large
supplies of soya meal are likely to exert price pressure...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 1 April 2016...
Up-to-date Statistics Released for Key Countries & Commodities...
We compiled up-to-date statistics, including supply and demand, trade details, area and production for the following commodities & countries:
Soybeans, Oil & Meal
Rapeseed, Oil & Meal
Sunseed, Oil & Meal
The data are based on the MONTHLY of 18 March 2016.
More info under www.oilworld.de/statistics. Please contact us for further info on the data provided by OILWORLD.
OIL WORLD Data Base March 2016 Released...
-- Date of Release: 24 March 2016 --
2015/16 oilseed production as well as world supply & demand of oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals, all by country
Take advantage of our reliable, unbiased and comprehensive
information and forecasts. For a better understanding of current market developments and prospects.
The OIL WORLD Data Base on CD-ROM provides the information
which gives you a competitive edge. It includes much more data than can
be published in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY and WEEKLY:
Forecasts of 2015/16 oilseed area. yields and production and world supply and demand outlook for oils/fats and oilmeals for next season!
Up-to-date estimates of 2015/16 world supply & demand for all oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals with breakdown by country.
Quarterly world production, trade, consumption and stocks estimates up to July/Sept 2016.
The CD-ROM provides oilseed crop and processing statistics as
well as supply & demand balances for oils/fats, oilmeals etc.
64 most important countries. This comprises the
EU-28 as well as the major countries of the CIS, Central Europe,
America, Asia, Africa and Oceania.
Monthly prices from Jan 2001 up to March 2016 for the 6 major
oilseeds, 15 oils/fats and 8 oilmeals.
Monthly crush, production, trade and stocks data for key countries
until Sept or Dec 2016. Trade statistics are provided for the major
exporting countries with breakdown by country of destination and for
the leading importing countries by country of origin.
The Commodity Sections for Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals provide the supply and demand developments as well as stocks,with breakdown by major countries. The forecasts cover the season 2015/16 for crop production and area as well as world supply & demand of the major oilseeds and products. The time periods in most tables are the 5 seasons until 2015/16 and the 3 calendar years ending 2015. A quarterly breakdown is given in the respective Summary Tables of each commodity. Monthly Price Surveys are given for most oilseeds, oils and meals. The section 'Other Commodities' provides world production statistics for red meat and poultry.
For more info see www.oilworld.de/database
UKRAINE & RUSSIA: Spring Planting Prospects...
Record sunseed plantings of 13.1 Mn ha are
considered likely in 2016 in Ukraine and Russia combined
(up 0.7 Mn ha from last year), in our opinion,
owing to a combination of supportive world veg. oil
fundamentals, attractive prices and relatively low
production costs. This is seen raising the possibility for
a record sunseed crop to be harvested in the autumn of
2016 on the assumption of normal weather conditions
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 11 March 2016...
EU-28 Supply & Demand Update 2015/16...
The EU-28 is currently expected to increase net imports of oilseeds by 0.7 Mn T to 18.4 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2015/16, the highest level in 14 years. The higher import demand results mainly from this season’s smaller EU rapeseed and sunseed crops. The EU may turn into a net importer of sunflowerseed this season. Despite larger imports, EU crushings of oilseeds are forecast to decline by as much as 1.0 Mn T to 46.9 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2015/16. Increases in soybeans and linseed will be more than offset by pronounced reductions in sunseed and rapeseed.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 4 March 2016...
Lauric oil prices continued to appreciate during the week in review..
Lauric oil prices continued to appreciate during the week in review - gaining US-$ 30. At the close of Febr 25 palmkernel oil was quoted at US-$ 1030 in Rotterdam, US-$ 380 above the low established as of end-Aug 2015. In the same period coconut oil prices advanced by US-$ 300 and were quoted at a one-year high of US-$ 1255 in Rotterdam yesterday.
Lauric oil prices have been supported by prospects of declining production and export supplies - at least in Jan/June 2016.
However, we consider lauric oil prices as unsustainably high and expect a narrowing of the price premiums relative to palm oil. This adjustment is likely to come from a slowing-down of consumption.
OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 26 February 2016...