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The Independent Forecasting Service for Oilseeds, Oils & Meals
Providing Primary Information --Professional Analysis-- Unbiased Opinion

++++ Latest OIL WORLD Headlines ++++

More details and background analysis are provided in the various Publications of OIL WORLD, primarily in the WEEKLY and the FLASH

Aug 28: 
China boosted imports of soybeans to a record 9.5 Mn T in July, up 2.0 Mn T from last year. Imports will decline seasonally in Aug and Sept but still remain sharply above last year....

China boosted imports of soybeans to a record 9.5 Mn T in July, up 2.0 Mn T from last year. Imports will decline seasonally in Aug and Sept but still remain sharply above last year. We believe that in Oct/Sept 2014/15 China will import a record 76.3 Mn T of soybeans compared with 70.4 Mn T a year and 59.9 Mn T two years earlier. We estimate that China will crush 67.0 Mn T of soybeans in Oct/Sept 2014/15, while approximately 14-15 Mn T will be used in the food industry (mainly for tofu). For Oct/Sept 2015/16 we expect a slowing-down of the growth in soybean imports. In the first few months of the new season soybean imports will probably be depressed because of the large stocks of imported soybeans accumulated in the last quarter of the old-crop season. But with domestic production of soybeans likely to fall to a historic low of 10.5 Mn T (mainly on account of reduced plantings) Chinese import dependence on GM and also non-GM soybeans will continue to grow. We estimate soybean imports next season at ..... Details in the MONTHLY of August 28

Aug 21: 
Biodiesel exports of key countries: World trade in biodiesel apparently virtually halved from a year ago in Jan/June 2015....

Biodiesel exports of key countries: World trade in biodiesel apparently virtually halved from a year ago in Jan/June 2015. This conclusion can be drawn from the trade data of 7 selected countries. Given in the Oil World weekly of Aug 21. The by far biggest year-on-year reduction occurred in Indonesia (down 76%) with biodiesel exports of only 167 Thd T (against 700 a year earlier), of which only about 10 Thd T to China (vs. 450 Thd T a year earlier), virtually nothing to the EU and the USA emerging as the major export destination this year. Argentina has suffered a 50% shortfall in biodiesel exports in Jan/June 2015 (again the USA the major destination). Malaysia has become a more active exporter of biodiesel shipping 23 Thd T in June (vs. 8 Thd T a year earlier) and a record 47 Thd T in July (vs. 4)...

Aug 14: 
Soybean crushings and net exports of 5 major exporting countries were again unusually high in July...

Soybean crushings and net exports of 5 major exporting countries were again unusually high in July, turning out a combined 4.5 Mn T above a year earlier, following a boost of 5.5 Mn T in June. Most of the increase occurred in net exports, driven by higher Chinese import needs in particular, and, to some extent, also by rising exports to the European Union, Thailand, Japan, Iran and a few other countries. Also, soybean crushings remain comparatively high in the USA, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay.

We provide our latest estimates as well as updated official data together with our comments and analysis in the OIL WORLD WEEKLY of August 14...



Aug 07: 
Brazilian Commodity Exports Are Boosted by Weak Currency...

Declining prices have squeezed profit margins of farmers worldwide in recent months. However, Brazilian farmers are better off because the sharply depreciating Brazilian currency inflates their returns on the export market. The devaluation caused an outright boom of exports in recent weeks: soybean exports were reported at 8.4 Mn T in July, bringing the cumulation for May/July to an unprecedented 27.6 Mn T, up as much as 7.1 Mn T from a year ago. Soya meal exports increased to a record 1.71 Mn T in July and were 13% higher at 4.9 Mn T in May/July 2015. Exports of safrinha corn started rapidly and total corn exports more than doubled on the year to 1.28 Mn T in July.

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 7 August 2015...



Jul 31: 
2015/16 Consumption of Oilseeds Likely to Exceed Production for the First Time in 4 Years...

World production of oilseeds will fall short of earlier estimates in the 2015/16 season. The extent of the decline is still uncertain but downward revisions have become necessary since the release of our June 12 MONTHLY for the USA, Canada and the EU-28. On top of that, there is the possibility that soybean plantings and production will fall short of expectations in South America, primarily Argentina...

OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 31 July 2015...



Jul 24: 
Oilseed Crop Failure in the EU-28 Will Raise Import Requirements in 2015/16...

EU production of the 3 major oilseeds is seen declining noticeably by 2.9 Mn T from a year earlier to 32.2 Mn T. This is from a harvested of 11.5 Mn ha for these three crops, virtually unchanged from a year earlier.
This will sharply raise the net import requirements of the EU-28. Part of this increase will be in the form of oilseeds, but considering the insufficient world export supplies in rapeseed and sunflowerseed, most of the increase in oilseeds will be on account of soybeans...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 24 July 2015...



Jul 17: 
World Production of Rapeseed & Canola Will Probably Decline Steeply by 5 Mn T in 2015/16...

We now estimate world production of rapeseed & canola at only 64.0 Mn T in 2015/16. This is 1.8 Mn T less than we had forecast in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of June 12, mainly on account of downward revisions of 0.5 Mn T in the EU-28, 1.2 Mn T in Canada and 0.15 Mn T in Russia. The prospective decline in production by 5.0 Mn T from 2014/15 is unprecedented. Considering the reduced opening stocks, world supplies are even set to decline by 5.9 Mn T...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 17 July 2015...



Jul 13: 
World Supplies of Cottonseed Forecast to Plunge by 3.8 Mn T in 2015/16...

With cotton plantings nearing completion in many countries of the northern hemisphere (accounting for 90% of world output), the stage is set for a steep decline of cottonseed output in 2015/16. The mounting oversupply of cotton fibre on the world market lowered cotton prices relative to other crops and farmers are showing a reaction: the world area under cotton is forecast to decline by as much as 2.2 Mn ha or 6% in 2015/16...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 10 July 2015...



Jul 03: 
World exports of soybeans, soya oil and meal increased sharply in June. Exports were higher than expected in June..

World exports of soybeans, soya oil and meal increased sharply in June.
Exports were higher than expected in June, primarily soybean exports from Brazil as well as soya meal exports from Argentina and the USA and soya oil exports from Argentina. In the OIL WORLD WEEKLY of July 3 we give details of the June exports of soybeans and products with comparable data for preceding months...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 3 July 2015...



Jun 22: 
Up-to-date Statistics Released for Key Commodities and Countries...

We compiled up-to-date statistics, inlcuding supply and demand, trade details, area and production, monthly prices etc for the following commodities/countries:

  • Soybeans, oil & meal

  • Palm oil


  • Rapeseed, oil & meal

  • Sunseed, oil & meal


  • EU-28

  • China

  • India


    The data are based on the MONTHLY of 27 March 2015 and the Data Base CD ROM released April 1. More info under www.oilworld.de/statistics

    Jun 22: 
    OIL WORLD Data Base June 2015 Released...

    on CD-ROM

    -- Date of Release: 18 June 2015 --

    2015/16 oilseed production as well as world supply & demand of oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals, all by country

    Take advantage of our reliable, unbiased and comprehensive information and forecasts. For a better understanding of current market developments and prospects.

    • The OIL WORLD Data Base on CD-ROM provides the information which gives you a competitive edge. It includes much more data than can be published in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY and WEEKLY:

    • Forecasts of 2015/16 oilseed area. yields and production and world supply and demand outlook for oils/fats and oilmeals for next season!

      Up-to-date estimates of 2014/15 world supply & demand for all oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals with breakdown by country.

    • Quarterly world production, trade, consumption and stocks estimates up to July/Sept 2015.
       

    The CD-ROM provides oilseed crop and processing statistics as well as supply & demand balances for oils/fats, oilmeals etc. for the 64 most important countries. This comprises the EU-28 as well as the major countries of the CIS, Central Europe, America, Asia, Africa and Oceania.

    Monthly prices from Jan 2000 up to June 2015 for the 6 major oilseeds, 15 oils/fats and 8 oilmeals.

    • Monthly crush, production, trade and stocks data for key countries until Sept or Dec 2015. Trade statistics are provided for the major exporting countries with breakdown by country of destination and for the leading importing countries by country of origin.
      The Commodity Sections for Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals provide the supply and demand developments as well as stocks,with breakdown by major countries. The forecasts cover the season 2015/16 for crop production and area as well as world supply & demand of the major oilseeds and products. The time periods in most tables are the 5 seasons until 2014/15 and the 3 calendar years ending 2014. A quarterly breakdown is given in the respective Summary Tables of each commodity. Monthly Price Surveys are given for most oilseeds, oils and meals. The section 'Other Commodities' provides world production statistics for red meat and poultry.
       
    • For more info see www.oilworld.de/database


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