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More details and background analysis are provided in the various
of OIL WORLD, primarily in the
Prices of soya oil, palm oil and lauric oils are vulnerable to a setback in the next 2-5 weeks..
Prices of soya oil, palm oil and lauric oils are vulnerable to a setback in the next 2-5 weeks, but a renewed price rally is likely to occur in early 2017 caused by the then still prevailing tight world supplies. In the Jan/March quarter world production is normally at its lowest level of the year and 2017 will be no exception.
The next few months could be exiting. Market participants will be very nervous in view of the unusually tight stocks both in the producing and importing countries. These low stocks could create quite significant price volatility in case of any surprising changes on the supply or demand side. And with export supplies of vegetable oils continuing to be tight at least until March 2017 there is hardly any scope for importing and consuming countries to replenish empty pipelines, so they will remain vulnerable to unforeseen supply problems.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 25 November 2016...
World Stocks of Palm Oil May Recover Only from Mid-2017 Onward...
The year-on-year increase of production will only be
moderate in Oct/Dec 2016 but accelerate in the
forthcoming quarters. However, the unusually low
stocks of palm oil will more than offset the anticipated
production increase both in Oct/Dec 2016 as well as in
Jan/March 2017, keeping supplies unusually tight...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 18 November 2016...
World production of palm oil plummeted by 3.6% from a year earlier in Oct/Sept 2015/16...
World production of palm oil plummeted by 3.6% from a year earlier in Oct/Sept 2015/16. This resulted in a substantial decline in stocks. There will be only a marginal recovery in palm oil output in Oct/Dec 2016, but yields will increase in 2017, primarily from the April/June quarter onward. Our revised, but still tentative, production estimate for Oct/Sept 2016/17 is 64.0 Mn T, up 5.5 Mn T from the low basis of comparison in 2015/16. – But with world stocks of palm oil down steeply by 3.3 Mn T at the start of the season, global supplies will be rising by only 2.2 Mn T. This is well below average and will result in only a relatively small increase in palm oil consumption in 2016/17.
We provide more details and our revised estimates for the production, trade, consumption and stocks of all the major oilseeds, vegetable oils and oilmeals in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of Nov 11..
The situation in China: Following reduced soybean imports in recent months, Chinese purchases of soybeans have picked up noticeably...
The situation in China: Following reduced soybean imports in recent months, Chinese purchases of soybeans have picked up noticeably. This was partly linked to the realization that this year's domestic soybean crop will actually be smaller than expected due to very dry weather conditions in key phases of development. In the OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Nov 4 we give details of this year's Chinese soybean production and we explain that we have raised our estimate on soybean imports to 85.8 Mn T for Oct/Sept 2016/17, up from 83.2 Mn T last season. Domestic consumption of soya meal in China is picking up and will probably rise by around 7% in 2016/17 due to reduced availability of rapeseed meal and other meals.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 4 November 2016...
EU-28 Veg. Oil Production Deficit Widens and Imports Are Likely to Set New Record in 2016/17...
The production shortfall shaping up in the
2016/17 season and probably at least stagnating
domestic consumption are expected to keep EU net
import demand for veg. oils on an uptrend. This, in
turn, will require that veg. oil prices on the European
market stay at sufficiently large premiums to those
in major veg. oil exporting countries, at least partly
explaining the latest price rally in EU rapeseed oil,
which provided support for competing veg. oils...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 28 October 2016...
Global supply shortage of 8 veg. oils to prevail at least in Oct/Dec 2016.....
Following the unusually strong decline of world production by 3.0 Mn T in 2015/16, combined output of the 8 major vegetable oils is forecast to increase by 1.0 Mn T in Oct/Dec 2016. With palm oil output likely to increase by only 0.4 Mn T, the bulk of this increase will be on account of growing oilseed crushings.
Taking into account that world stocks of the major vegetable oils were roughly 5 Mn T lower than a year ago in early October, the prospective increase of production in the current quarter turns into a pronounced year-on-year decline of supplies. Exports will still decline....
OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 21 October 2016...
Steep Decline of Palm Oil Import Demand from West Africa...
A sharp decline of palm oil imports occurred in
2015/16. Based on shipment data from the major
exporting countries, we estimate palm oil net imports of
the six West African countries analysed here at only
1.5-1.6 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2015/16, implying a decline of
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 14 October 2016...
South American Soybean Plantings Likely to Decline in 2016/17......
South American soybean plantings will probably be reduced by 0.5 Mn to 59.0 Mn ha in 2016/17. This compares with an average annual increase of 2.3 Mn ha in the latest five seasons and it is the first decline in 10 years. The major contraction is likely to be in Argentina where we now forecast soybean plantings at 19.6 Mn ha, down 0.8 Mn ha, despite the prospective increase in the total cultivated area of all crops. For Brazil we now expect only a very small expansion by 0.4 Mn to 33.6 Mn ha.
We give details in the WEEKLY of Oct 7.
The World Vegetable Oil Market Will Stay Relatively Tight in Oct/March 2016/17....
The current unusually low stocks of vegetable oils and animal fats will more than offset the prospective increase of production in the next few months, resulting in a further year-on-year decline in world supplies. This will limit and most likely reduce world exports (at least until February), thus curbing imports and keeping stocks depressed in many importing countries. Vegetable oil prices are expected to remain well supported in Oct/Febr 2016/17.
We give details in the WEEKLY of Sept 30.
Up-to-date Statistics Released for Key Countries & Commodities...
Latest OILWORLD statistics are ready for download. The data packages offer supply and demand, trade, crops and prices for the following key commodities & countries:
Soybeans, Oil & Meal
Rapeseed, Oil & Meal
Sunseed, Oil & Meal
The data are based on the DATABASE released Sept 23.
More info under www.oilworld.de/database. Please contact us for further info on the data provided by OILWORLD.
OIL WORLD Data Base SEPTEMBER 2016 Released...
-- Date of Release: 23 September 2016 --
2016/17 oilseed production as well as world supply & demand of oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals, all by country
Take advantage of our reliable, unbiased and comprehensive
information and forecasts. For a better understanding of current market developments and prospects.
The OIL WORLD Data Base on CD-ROM provides the information
which gives you a competitive edge. It includes much more data than can
be published in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY and WEEKLY:
Forecasts of 2016/17 oilseed area. yields and production and world supply and demand outlook for oils/fats and oilmeals for next season!
Up-to-date estimates of 2016/17 world supply & demand for all oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals with breakdown by country.
Quarterly world production, trade, consumption and stocks estimates up to Oct/Dec 2016.
The CD-ROM provides oilseed crop and processing statistics as
well as supply & demand balances for oils/fats, oilmeals etc.
64 most important countries. This comprises the
EU-28 as well as the major countries of the CIS, Central Europe,
America, Asia, Africa and Oceania.
Monthly prices from Jan 2001 up to September 2016 for the 6 major
oilseeds, 15 oils/fats and 8 oilmeals.
Monthly crush, production, trade and stocks data for key countries
until Sept or Dec 2017. Trade statistics are provided for the major
exporting countries with breakdown by country of destination and for
the leading importing countries by country of origin.
The Commodity Sections for Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals provide the supply and demand developments as well as stocks,with breakdown by major countries. The forecasts cover the season 2016/17 for crop production and area as well as world supply & demand of the major oilseeds and products. The time periods in most tables are the 5 seasons until 2016/17 and the 3 calendar years ending 2016. A quarterly breakdown is given in the respective Summary Tables of each commodity. Monthly Price Surveys are given for most oilseeds, oils and meals. The section 'Other Commodities' provides world production statistics for red meat and poultry.
For more info see www.oilworld.de/database
Edible Oil Prices Will Still Be Well Supported in Oct/Febr 2016/17...
The current tightness in palm oil is unprecedented
and is still ongoing because the moderate recovery in
palm oil production is quickly absorbed by the sharply
reduced stocks, keeping world supplies sharply below
the year-ago levels in Oct/Dec 2016 and again in
Sharply depleted stocks in the exporting countries
will reduce world export supplies in the next 3-6
months. At the same time, stocks have been cut
sizeably in most importing countries, primarily in China
and India. In Oct/Dec 2016 reduced supplies will result
in a year-on-year decline of world exports...
OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 16 September 2016...
The OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2016 has been released on May 27..
The OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2016 has been released on May 27. It includes the first OIL WORLD forecasts of world production, trade, consumption, stocks and prices for oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals for 2016/17. The compendium of world statistics comprises more than 700 pages. You are most welcome to request additional information. Orders can be made online...