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More details and background analysis are provided in the various
of OIL WORLD, primarily in the
Slowdown of Soybean Disposals before Bumper US Crop Enters the
G-5 soybean disposals (crushings plus net exports)
suffered a severe setback by 10% to an estimated 16.6
Mn T in August, the first year-on-year decline in more
than 12 months. This followed increases of 5% each in
June and July...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 12 September 2014
LAURIC OILS: Supply & Demand to Recover in 2014/15....
Combined world production of the two lauric oils will probably only stagnate at 9.6 Mn T in 2013/14 while consumption is seen declining by 0.1 Mn T. Demand has suffered a setback not only in several importing countries but also in Malaysia. However, we assume that in Indonesia at least the rapid uptrend of palmkernel oil usage continues to an estimated 1.4-1.5 Mn T in 2013/14.
For Oct/Sept 2014/15 we tentatively forecast an increase in world output of the two lauric oils by 0.3-0.4 Mn T, thereof 0.2-0.3 Mn T in palmkernel oil and 0.1 Mn T in coconut oil. World consumption of lauric oils is seen approaching a record 10 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2014/15, implying an increase of 0.5 Mn T from this season’s low level and of 3.2 Mn T from ten years ago.
For further details see the OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Sept 5.
Sunseed Complex May Be Not Far Away from the Price Lows...
The world sunflower complex will again have to look
for demand outside the traditional premium market to
dispose of the bumper supplies shaping up in the
2014/15 season. This is going to limit any independent
price movement and require sunseed and products to
stay competitive relative to alternative oilseeds and
vegetable oils, which in many cases implies a discount
However, as global sunseed production is estimated
to at best approach last year’s result, the ability of
sunflower oil to satisfy the growth of world veg. oil
demand will be very limited in 2014/15...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 29 August 2014
Another Upward Revision in World Oilseed Supplies in 2014/15....
World production of 7 oilseeds has been further raised in our new forecast to 507.2 Mn T in 2014/15, 2.2 Mn T more than five weeks ago and 18.1 Mn T on top of the record established a year earlier. For soybeans we have raised our estimate to a new high of 306.7 Mn T, 22.1 Mn T above 2013/14. Increases in the US were partly offset by downward revisions in Argentina, India, Canada and China. The other 6 oilseeds are expected to suffer a combined on-year setback by 4.0 Mn T to 200.5 Mn T. Palm oil production is likely to show only a below-average growth in Oct/Sept 2014/15.
OIL WORLD MONTHLY of Aug 22.
The global export volume of rapeseed & canola is likely to shrink by at least 1.3-1.5 Mn T in July/June 2014/15.....
The global export volume of rapeseed & canola is likely to shrink by at least 1.3-1.5 Mn T in July/June 2014/15, down from a record 15.2 Mn T registered last season. Reductions likely in exports from Canada, Australia and Ukraine. This may be somewhat offset by higher shipments from the EU and Russia.
Most of the adjustment on the import side is likely to occur in the European Union where we now consider it likely that imports will decline to a multi-year low of 2.2-2.4 Mn T in July/June 2014/15.
For further details see the OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Aug 15
EU-28 rapeseed crushings likely to approach a record 24 Mn T in July/June 2014/15...
EU-28 rapeseed crushings likely to approach a record 24 Mn T in July/June 2014/15. We reveal details in the FLASH and also explain why the crush in 2013/14 exceeded expectations.
G-5 soybean disposals declined seasonally in July, but remained above the year-ago level. Strong import demand confirmed in spectacular boost of 26 Mn T or 14% in G-5 soybean disposals in Sept/July 2013/14.
Ukraine: Exports of sunflower oil again unusually large at 334 Thd T in July (up 85% from last year). Rapeseed exports boosted to a record for July.
Soya oil: Larger demand from India and China boosted world exports of soya oil in June and July.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 8 August 2014
Sharp Increase of G-3 Soybean Supplies Shaping Up in Sept/Dec 2014...
Combined soybean stocks of the three countries are estimated at 51 Mn T as of Sept 1, an increase by 5.1 Mn T from a year ago but only the fifth highest level for that date on record, confirming that the current outlook for ample to burdensome soybean supplies in the first half of 2014/15 will be mainly a function of production in the US. The US soybean crop is entering the key yield-determining month of August in the best condition registered in many years. It can therefore not be precluded that the average yield turns out at 3.0-3.05 T/ha or even slightly higher if weather conditions in August cooperate...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 1 August 2014
Rapeseed Outlook for Russia & Ukraine...
Rapeseed harvesting is now in full swing in the
key countries of the former Soviet Union and we expect
the combined production to be close to last year’s
record high level. However, exports are likely to suffer
a more noticeable setback in July/June 2014/15 due to
the reduced crop in Ukraine, which is the largest CIS
producer and exporter of rapeseed.
Current estimates on Ukrainian production are quite
high, but we still expect a decline from last year to 2.1-
2.2 Mn T...
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 25 July 2014