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The Independent Forecasting Service for Oilseeds, Oils & Meals
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++++ Latest OIL WORLD Headlines ++++

More details and background analysis are provided in the various Publications of OIL WORLD, primarily in the WEEKLY and the FLASH

Jan 23: 
Early prospects for 2015/16 point to a decline in world production of rapeseed & canola...

This will be under the lead of the European Union where we expect the crop to plunge by 3-4 Mn T in the summer of 2015. Our estimate of 20.5 Mn T represents the average of our range forecasts. Also, soybean production prospects have deteriorated in South America. World production of soybeans is now estimated at 312.1 Mn T in 2014/15, 0.8 Mn T below our previous estimate but still a significant 27.2 Mn T above last season. We have made a downward revision by 1.1 Mn T in our Indian soybean crop estimate, but there is a high probability that the actual crop is even below our current estimate of 9.1 Mn T.

More details are given in the MONTHLY of Jan 23...



Jan 16: 
Malaysian palm oil production seen falling by 0.7-0.8 Mn T from last year in Oct/March 2014/15...

Damage to palm oil production from excessive rainfall and flooding reached approximately 0.2 Mn T in December and a similar loss may occur in January. This as well as the smaller number of fruit bunches available for harvest has aggravated the seasonal decline in palm oil yields and production. It remains to be seen, however, to what extent the bullish impact of the reduced supplies will be offset by the bearish impact of weakening foreign palm oil demand caused by the now sizably declining usage of palm oil for biodiesel. The big question is at the moment whether the large premium over fossil fuels will even reduce actual consumption of biodiesel below the announced mandates.

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Jan 16...



Jan 09: 
Palm oil and Other Vegetable Oils have Divorced from the Plunging Energy Prices..

We are of the opinion that additional downward potential for vegetable oil prices is limited from current levels, at least in Jan/Jun 2015, considering the relatively small growth in world production of vegetable oils.
Latest Malaysian palm oil production losses as well as prospects of smaller than expected rapeseed production in India in the next 2 months and in Europe in the summer of 2015 have added to this scenario...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Jan 9...



Dec 19: 
Up-to-date Statistics Released for Key Commodities and Countries...

We compiled up-to-date statistics with our forecasts for 2014/15, inlcuding supply and demand, trade details, area and production, monthly prices etc for the following commodities/countries:

  • Soybeans, oil & meal

  • Palm oil


  • Rapeseed, oil & meal


    The data are based on the MONTHLY of 12 December 2014 and the Data Base CD ROM released Dec 19. More info under www.oilworld.de/statistics

    Dec 12: 
    Revised supply, demand and price forecasts released for this season for oilseeds, oils & fats as well as oilmeals in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of Dec 12 together with a comprehensive statistical supplement....

    Revised supply, demand and price forecasts released for this season for oilseeds, oils & fats as well as oilmeals in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of Dec 12 together with a comprehensive statistical supplement. Our new forecasts for Oct/Sept 2014/15 point to a significant slowdown of world production of 17 oils & fats, likely to rise by only 3.1 Mn T or 1.6%, which is in clear contrast to the boost of 11.5 Mn T or 5.9% last season. This means that oils & fats consumption has to be rationed in the current season. Their prices will have to develop sufficiently high premiums vis-a-vis energy prices to ration consumption in the energy market and leave sufficient supplies to satisfy rising food demand worldwide. – In contrast, oilmeal supplies will be relatively more ample with a significant production growth of 12.2 Mn T or 4.0%, leading to sizably rising export supplies and consumption, primarily in Jan/Sept 2015.

    More details are given in the MONTHLY of Dec 12....



    Dec 05: 
    Russia: Surging domestic prices amid a declining Rubel as well as fears of reduced production in 2015 will probably result in interference of the Russian Government in the wheat export market....

    In Russia the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance has already made an official statement, instructing its regional divisions to impose additional measures of quality control. This may be one of the possible non-tariff measures to slow down Russian wheat exports in coming months. However, several market observers do not exclude the implementation of export quotas, primarily if Russian winter wheat crop losses exceed expectations.

    Update of grain exports of Russia and Ukraine for July/Nov 2014 in the WEEKLY of Dec 5......



    Nov 28: 
    EU-28: Major Slowdown in Usage of Oils & Fats in the Energy Sector in 2014/15...

    We see a major slowdown in usage of oils and fats in the European energy sector in 2014/15, which absorbed a large portion of imported palm oil in the preceding season thanks to very attractive prices. Hence, a noticeable decline of palm oil exports to Europe is to be expected in 2014/15, following the boost to a record level last season...

    OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Nov 28.....



    Nov 21: 
    World Oilseed Supplies Seen Rising by 31 Mn T or 5.5%...

    World supplies of 7 oilseeds will be more ample than expected in 2014/15. Higher stocks at the start of the season and the upward revision in production has lifted world supplies to a new high of 593.6 Mn T, up 31 Mn T on top of the boost of 36 Mn T registered last season.
    There are ample supplies available worldwide. But lack of farmer selling and logistical constraints still made it difficult to fully satisfy consumer demand in the producing and importing countries in the past 10-12 weeks...

    OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 21 November 2014

    Oct 24: 
    Dependence on soybeans will rise in Oct/Sept 2014/15......

    With production and crushings of softseeds declining, soybean crushings have to fill the gap. We consider it necessary that world soybean crushings will be boosted by at least 15 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2014/15 compared with an increase of 12.0 Mn T in 2013/14. Crushings of the 6 oilseeds other than soybeans will suffer a decline by around 2.0 Mn T this season. As rapeseed and sunflowerseed are high oil-yielding seeds, this will slow the growth in world production of vegetable oils. Hence, there is significantly less scope for expanding vegetable oil use in the food and energy sectors than in 2013/14...

    OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 24 October 2014

    Oct 17: 
    ARGENTINA: The government may set up a state-owned company to export agricultural commodities...

    This at least seems to be currently discussed (behind closed doors). It could be similar to the "Junta Nacional de Granos" which had been installed in the seventies and eighties, but was closed by decree of the former President Carlos Menem in 1991 because it was considered uneffective. -- But now a corresponding agency could be reactivated... OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 17 October 2014


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