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The Independent Forecasting Service for Oilseeds, Oils & Meals
Providing Primary Information --Professional Analysis-- Unbiased Opinion

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More details and background analysis are provided in the various Publications of OIL WORLD, primarily in the WEEKLY and the FLASH

Jan 13: 
A Vegetable Oil Tightness Has a Long Tail...

Vegetable oil prices are still well supported by the current low world stocks and the seasonally low production. The severe production deficit in Oct/Sept 2015/16 resulted in an extremely large decline in world stocks of 8 vegetable oils by 5.4 Mn T to only 23.3 Mn T as of end-Sept 2016.
We now estimate that in Oct/March 2016/17 the year-on-year increase in world production of 8 veg oils by 3.5 Mn T will be more than offset by the low stocks at the start of that period...

OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 13 January 2016...



Jan 06: 
Transition to Lower Prices in 2017 May Be a Bumpy Ride...

For the expected switch of acreage from grains to soybeans in the US to translate into lasting pressure on prices about normal weather conditions will certainly be required in the summer of 2017. Prior to that the market will have to deal with some major uncertainties in South America.
Parts of the central Argentine soybean belt received torrential rainfall in late December and early this year...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 6 January 2016...



Dec 23: 
Biodiesel: World Production Boosted by 3.3 Mn T in 2016...

The usage of palm oil and soya oil in biodiesel production is seen increasing steeply this year by 1.5 Mn T and 1.4 Mn T, respectively, thus accounting for the bulk of the additional feedstock demand. The application of used cooking oil is increasing further to an estimated 3.0 Mn T but supplies are limited...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 23 December 2016...



Dec 22: 
OIL WORLD Data Base DECEMBER 2016...

on CD-ROM

-- Date of Release: 22 December 2016 --

2016/17 oilseed production as well as world supply & demand of oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals, all by country

Take advantage of our reliable, unbiased and comprehensive information and forecasts. For a better understanding of current market developments and prospects.

  • The OIL WORLD Data Base on CD-ROM provides the information which gives you a competitive edge. It includes much more data than can be published in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY and WEEKLY:

  • Oilseed area, yields and production until 2016/17

    World supply & demand for all oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals with breakdown by country until 2016/17.

  • Quarterly world production, trade, consumption and stocks estimates up to Jan/March 2017.
     

The CD-ROM provides oilseed crop and processing statistics as well as supply & demand balances for oils/fats, oilmeals etc. for the 64 most important countries. This comprises the EU-28 as well as the major countries of the CIS, Central Europe, America, Asia, Africa and Oceania.

Monthly prices from Jan 2001 up to December 2016 for the 6 major oilseeds, 15 oils/fats and 8 oilmeals.

  • Monthly crush, production, trade and stocks data for key countries until Sept or Dec 2017. Trade statistics are provided for the major exporting countries with breakdown by country of destination and for the leading importing countries by country of origin.
    The Commodity Sections for Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals provide the supply and demand developments as well as stocks,with breakdown by major countries. The forecasts cover the season 2016/17 for crop production and area as well as world supply & demand of the major oilseeds and products. The time periods in most tables are the 5 seasons until 2016/17 and the 3 calendar years ending 2016. A quarterly breakdown is given in the respective Summary Tables of each commodity. Monthly Price Surveys are given for most oilseeds, oils and meals. The section 'Other Commodities' provides world production statistics for red meat and poultry.
     
  • For more info see www.oilworld.de/database

    Dec 09: 
    Recovery in World Production of Tallow in Oct/Sept 2016/17...

    Tallow production started to recover in Oct/Sept 2015/16 and a further recovery is likely to occur in 2016/17, pushing world production to 9.43 Mn T, approximately 250 Thd T above the low registered two years earlier.
    This will have an only very limited impact on world export supplies because tallow is largely absorbed domestically (primarily in the USA and Brazil)...

    OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 9 December 2016...



    Dec 02: 
    World production of olive oil is currently estimated to plunge

    World production of olive oil is currently estimated to plunge to 2.9 Mn T in 2016/17, down steeply from 3.4 Mn T last season. Additional damage is possibly occurring from floods resulting from unusually heavy rainfall at the end of November and early December in Andalucia, the key production area. Prices already rose by 8-10% during the past five weeks. Additional price appreciation is likely. We provide details in the OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Dec 2, where we also point to the sizable declines in olive oil production in Spain, Italy, Greece and Tunisia. For Oct/Sept 2016/17 we also show our estimates on world imports, exports, disappearance and stocks with breakdown by major countries...

    Nov 25: 
    Prices of soya oil, palm oil and lauric oils are vulnerable to a setback in the next 2-5 weeks..

    Prices of soya oil, palm oil and lauric oils are vulnerable to a setback in the next 2-5 weeks, but a renewed price rally is likely to occur in early 2017 caused by the then still prevailing tight world supplies. In the Jan/March quarter world production is normally at its lowest level of the year and 2017 will be no exception. The next few months could be exiting. Market participants will be very nervous in view of the unusually tight stocks both in the producing and importing countries. These low stocks could create quite significant price volatility in case of any surprising changes on the supply or demand side. And with export supplies of vegetable oils continuing to be tight at least until March 2017 there is hardly any scope for importing and consuming countries to replenish empty pipelines, so they will remain vulnerable to unforeseen supply problems.

    OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 25 November 2016...



    Nov 18: 
    World Stocks of Palm Oil May Recover Only from Mid-2017 Onward...

    The year-on-year increase of production will only be moderate in Oct/Dec 2016 but accelerate in the forthcoming quarters. However, the unusually low stocks of palm oil will more than offset the anticipated production increase both in Oct/Dec 2016 as well as in Jan/March 2017, keeping supplies unusually tight...

    OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 18 November 2016...



    Nov 11: 
    World production of palm oil plummeted by 3.6% from a year earlier in Oct/Sept 2015/16...

    World production of palm oil plummeted by 3.6% from a year earlier in Oct/Sept 2015/16. This resulted in a substantial decline in stocks. There will be only a marginal recovery in palm oil output in Oct/Dec 2016, but yields will increase in 2017, primarily from the April/June quarter onward. Our revised, but still tentative, production estimate for Oct/Sept 2016/17 is 64.0 Mn T, up 5.5 Mn T from the low basis of comparison in 2015/16. – But with world stocks of palm oil down steeply by 3.3 Mn T at the start of the season, global supplies will be rising by only 2.2 Mn T. This is well below average and will result in only a relatively small increase in palm oil consumption in 2016/17.

    We provide more details and our revised estimates for the production, trade, consumption and stocks of all the major oilseeds, vegetable oils and oilmeals in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY of Nov 11..



    Nov 04: 
    The situation in China: Following reduced soybean imports in recent months, Chinese purchases of soybeans have picked up noticeably...

    The situation in China: Following reduced soybean imports in recent months, Chinese purchases of soybeans have picked up noticeably. This was partly linked to the realization that this year's domestic soybean crop will actually be smaller than expected due to very dry weather conditions in key phases of development. In the OIL WORLD WEEKLY of Nov 4 we give details of this year's Chinese soybean production and we explain that we have raised our estimate on soybean imports to 85.8 Mn T for Oct/Sept 2016/17, up from 83.2 Mn T last season. Domestic consumption of soya meal in China is picking up and will probably rise by around 7% in 2016/17 due to reduced availability of rapeseed meal and other meals.

    OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 4 November 2016...



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