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More details and background analysis are provided in the various
of OIL WORLD, primarily in the
Vegetable Oils At the Beginning of Sizable Price Appreciation, While
Soya Meal Falling to Contract Lows...
We expect that vegetable oil prices will continue to
outperform oilmeals in Jan/June 2016 due to the
prospective global production shortage and the need to
reduce vegetable oil stocks to cover demand. For
Oct/Sept 2015/16 we expect a global production deficit
of 8 vegetable oils in the vicinity of 1.1 Mn T, resulting
in a sizable drawdown of stocks...
OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 20 November 2015...
Argentine soybean area seen falling by 1-2 Mn ha in the next 2-3 years....
Soybean plantings will probably be reduced to 18.0-18.6 Mn ha in Argentina sometime in 2 or 3 years, down 1.2-1.8 Mn ha from the area currently planted, if the new Argentine Government really takes steps towards liberalisation. Such a decline in plantings would result in a decline in soybean production by about 3.5-5.5 Mn T per annum, assuming average yields.
The longer-term outlook for soybean prices is therefore constructive. Particularly corn is seen gaining competitiveness over soybeans. Farmers are going to sizably expand plantings of corn, wheat, sorghum and other grains. We consider it likely that total grain sowings in Argentina will be boosted to 14.6 Mn ha in two or three years from now. This is the average of our current range forecasts and 3.2 Mn T above the estimated plantings of 2015/16.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 13 November 2015...
Soya oil exports of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and the USA increased dramatically by......
Soya oil exports of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and the USA increased dramatically by 0.7 Mn T or almost 70% to a record 1.7 Mn T in Sept and Oct 2015 combined. The biggest increase occurred in Argentina, facilitated by higher crushings and reduced domestic biodiesel production. But the big exports also resulted in a reduction of Argentine soya oil stocks below the year-ago level. In October soya oil exports exceeded expectations in Argentina, the USA and Brazil. In Sept and Oct 2015 India absorbed 35% of total exports.
In India a shortfall in soybean crushings and soya oil output as well as smaller than expected processing of rapeseed/mustardseed has raised vegetable oil import requirements. We now estimate that India will import a combined 570-600 Thd T of soya oil in Oct and Nov 2015 compared with 340 Thd T in the same two months of last year. G4 exports also increased to North Africa, some Central and South American countries, Bangladesh, China, Iran, Pakistan and South Korea.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 6 November 2015...
A pronounced slowdown of palm oil production growth in 2015/16...
Vegetable oil supplies are likely to tighten significantly in the course of 2015/16. A major change is expected to occur in palm oil as production will decline in some important producing regions as a result of partly severe dryness and haze, translating into an unusually small increase of world production in the next 12-15 months. We have reduced our palm oil production forecast sharply primarily for Indonesia to take the recent deterioration of growing conditions into account.
The looming slowdown of palm oil production will coincide with rather limited supplies of seed oils, although production of sunflowerseed and oil will turn out larger than anticipated, primarily in Ukraine. Soya oil will be the key residual commodity to offset the supply shortages of other vegetable oils.
Up-to-date Statistics Released for Key Commodities and Countries...
We compiled up-to-date statistics, inlcuding supply and demand, trade details, area and production, monthly prices etc for the following commodities/countries:
Soybeans, oil & meal
Rapeseed, oil & meal
Sunseed, oil & meal
The data are based on the MONTHLY of 25 September 2015 and the Data Base CD ROM released Oct 1.
More info under www.oilworld.de/statistics
Palm Oil Is Set to Lead Veg. Oil Prices to Higher Levels...
prospective slowing-down of the
growth in world palm oil output in calendar year
2016 and a recovery of Indonesian production
and domestic usage of biodiesel (stimulated by
government subsidies) will considerably slow
down the growth in world export supplies.
The relatively tighter supply scenario shaping
up has already started to support palm oil
OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 25 September 2015...
Ukraine: In 2016 rapeseed production will decline for the third consecutive year...
Ukraine: In 2016 rapeseed production will decline for the third consecutive year. Very dry conditions prevented completion of planting intentions in many regions. As of Sept 17 only 502 Thd ha were reportedly sown, down steeply from 731 Thd ha at the same time last year and 668 Thd ha in comparable 2013. Sowings are still continuing in some areas, but overall the total area devoted to winter rapeseed will be the lowest in several years.
Hibernation and the extent of winter-killing as well as spring plantings are key variables to watch. But, in any case, the failure of winter rapeseed plantings in many regions has already resulted in a significant deterioration of the 2016 rapeseed crop prospects in Ukraine.
OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 18 September 2015...