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The Independent Forecasting Service for Oilseeds, Oils & Meals
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++++ Latest OIL WORLD Headlines ++++

More details and background analysis are provided in the various Publications of OIL WORLD, primarily in the WEEKLY and the FLASH

Jan 29: 
A global production deficit is developing for vegetable oils in Jan/Sept 2016...

World stocks of 8 veg. oils still accumulated in Oct/Dec, but in Jan/Sept 2016 we now expect them to decline by 1.3-1.4 Mn T, reducing the stocks/usage ratio primarily for palm oil but also for lauric oils and rapeseed oil. In our revised analysis we estimate world production of 8 veg. oils to rise by only 2.1 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2015/16 against 4.1 Mn T a year ago. But the year-on-year growth in world consumption is likely to accelerate, driven by a reversal in biodiesel production in Indonesia and by a further growth in biodiesel anticipated for the US and Brazil. There is the risk that very low fossil fuel prices will reduce biodiesel consumption in many countries below expectations though.

OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 29 January 2016...



Jan 22: 
World Production & Export Supplies of Sunflower Oil Revised Upward...

Higher than expected sunseed production and crushings in the CIS countries are seen boosting global sun oil export supplies beyond previous forecasts this season. This is expected to limit the upside potential for sun oil prices and most probably result in a narrowing of the sun oil price premium over rapeseed oil in coming months...

OIL WORLWEEKLY of 22 January 2016...



Jan 15: 
European Rapeseed Supplies Seen Shrinking Further in 2016/17...

In the European Union total rapeseed production in the summer of 2016 will probably turn out at around 22.0 Mn T (on the assumption of about normal weather conditions from now on). This is close to the production volume of 2015 but sharply trailing the 24.3 Mn T achieved two years ago. This will keep EU import requirements of rapeseed & canola at a high level...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 15 January 2016...



Jan 08: 
Improved Argentine Competitiveness in Sunseed Complex...

The competitiveness of Argentine exporters of sunflower oil and meal has improved significantly after the removal of the 30% export tax on Dec 17. In recent years the high export tax had made Argentina rather the residual supplier while Ukraine and Russia became the major exporters. The removal of the 32% export tax on sunseed, however, is expected to have only a minor impact...

OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 8 January 2016...



Dec 23: 
World Production of Biodiesel to Recover in 2016...

In our first tentative outlook for 2016 we expect world production of biodiesel to increase by 1.9 Mn to 31.1 Mn T, thereby largely reversing the decline registered in 2015. Such an increase, however, will be difficult to accomplish in view of a potential shortage of feedstock resulting from the prospective below-normal increase in world production of oils and fats in 2015/16. A strict fulfilment of the various biodiesel targets would magnify the prospective uptrend in vegetable oil prices, but the price elasticity of biodiesel demand mainly in Indonesia and Malaysia will probably limit the potential price increase...

OIL WORLWEEKLY of 23 December 2015...



Dec 18: 
Up-to-date Statistics Released for Key Commodities...

We compiled up-to-date statistics, inlcuding supply and demand, trade details, area and production, monthly prices etc for the following commodities/countries:

  • Soybeans, oil & meal

  • Palm oil


  • Rapeseed, oil & meal

  • Sunseed, oil & meal


    The data are based on the MONTHLY of 11 December 2015 and the Data Base CD ROM released Dec 17. More info under www.oilworld.de/statistics

    Dec 18: 
    In Brazil soybean crop prospects have deteriorated due to ongoing dryness in several important soybean producing areas of central, northern and northeastern parts of the country...

    In Brazil soybean crop prospects have deteriorated due to ongoing dryness in several important soybean producing areas of central, northern and northeastern parts of the country. At the same time, soybean crop damage has already occurred from excessively wet conditions in southern Brazil. Most market participants were generally slow in realizing deteriorated soybean crop prospects in Brazil. Our current soybean crop estimate is 97.0 Mn T for early 2016, while most other crop observers are still expecting 99-102 Mn T. But we repeat that we already stated four weeks ago: "there is a high risk that the Brazilian soybean crop falls to or below 95 Mn T in early 2016" compared with 96.5 Mn T produced in early 2015. The prospective decline in Brazilian soybean exports in 2016 will be more or less neutralizing the bearish impact of increased Argentine selling and exports of soybeans and products....

    OIL WORLWEEKLY of 18 December 2015...



    Dec 17: 
    OIL WORLD Data Base December 2015 Released...

    on CD-ROM

    -- Date of Release: 17 December 2015 --

    2015/16 oilseed production as well as world supply & demand of oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals, all by country

    Take advantage of our reliable, unbiased and comprehensive information and forecasts. For a better understanding of current market developments and prospects.

    • The OIL WORLD Data Base on CD-ROM provides the information which gives you a competitive edge. It includes much more data than can be published in the OIL WORLD MONTHLY and WEEKLY:

    • Forecasts of 2015/16 oilseed area. yields and production and world supply and demand outlook for oils/fats and oilmeals for next season!

      Up-to-date estimates of 2015/16 world supply & demand for all oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals with breakdown by country.

    • Quarterly world production, trade, consumption and stocks estimates up to Jan/March 2016.
       

    The CD-ROM provides oilseed crop and processing statistics as well as supply & demand balances for oils/fats, oilmeals etc. for the 64 most important countries. This comprises the EU-28 as well as the major countries of the CIS, Central Europe, America, Asia, Africa and Oceania.

    Monthly prices from Jan 2000 up to December 2015 for the 6 major oilseeds, 15 oils/fats and 8 oilmeals.

    • Monthly crush, production, trade and stocks data for key countries until Sept or Dec 2016. Trade statistics are provided for the major exporting countries with breakdown by country of destination and for the leading importing countries by country of origin.
      The Commodity Sections for Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals provide the supply and demand developments as well as stocks,with breakdown by major countries. The forecasts cover the season 2015/16 for crop production and area as well as world supply & demand of the major oilseeds and products. The time periods in most tables are the 5 seasons until 2015/16 and the 3 calendar years ending 2015. A quarterly breakdown is given in the respective Summary Tables of each commodity. Monthly Price Surveys are given for most oilseeds, oils and meals. The section 'Other Commodities' provides world production statistics for red meat and poultry.
       
    • For more info see www.oilworld.de/database

      Dec 11: 
      World exports of soybeans in Jan/March 2016: We forecast a sharp increase in Argentine soybean exports to 2.5 Mn T (against only 0.1 Mn T a year earlier) while exports from Brazil and the USA are seen declining by 0.5 Mn T each....

      World exports of soybeans in Jan/March 2016: We forecast a sharp increase in Argentine soybean exports to 2.5 Mn T (against only 0.1 Mn T a year earlier) while exports from Brazil and the USA are seen declining by 0.5 Mn T each. For the full season Sept/Aug 2015/16 we estimate world exports of soybeans at a new high of 130.8 Mn T, 6.5 Mn T above a year earlier, with year-on-year increases of 4.1 Mn T in Argentina, 3.4 Mn T in Brazil and 0.6 Mn T in other South American countries, while US soybean exports are likely to decline by 1.7 Mn T. Details of the world supply, trade, demand and stocks of soybeans and other oilseeds as well as oils and meals are provided in the

      OIL WORLD MONTHLY of 11 December 2015...



      Dec 07: 
      Exports of soya oil to India surged to unprecedented levels in recent weeks. We estimate that in Nov roughly 0.54 Mn T was exported from Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay to India, more than tripling from a year ago...

      Exports of soya oil to India surged to unprecedented levels in recent weeks. We estimate that in Nov roughly 0.54 Mn T was exported from Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay to India, more than tripling from a year ago. Cumulative exports of soya oil from South America to India rocketed by as much as 1.3 Mn T to a record 3.44 Mn T in Jan/Nov 2015. Booming Indian soya oil imports are the flipside of the further eroding domestic vegetable oil production and sharply growing consumption. In India the Ministry of Agriculture is demanding higher import duties on vegetable oils to support domestic producers, but we understand that neither the finance nor the food and consumer ministries are so far supporting the proposal. Indian soya oil imports are seen reaching 1.0-1.1 Mn T for the second quarter in a row in Oct/Dec 2015. This will bring arrivals in Jan/Dec 2015 to 3.4-3.5 Mn T, up from 2.10 Mn T a year ago.

      OIL WORLD WEEKLY of 4 December 2015...



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