OIL WORLD

Prices Correcting Downward

Soya meal prices came under pressure throughout most of October due to spill-over weakness from soybeans and grains. Soya oil prices were relatively firmer, but also declined, though hesitatingly.

Argentine export prices of soya meal were quoted at US-$ 384 for nearest forward shipment on Oct 29, a 2-month low and down 11% within two weeks, while Argentine soya oil was quoted at US-$ 1227, up marginally within two weeks and virtually unchanged from a month earlier.

The price appreciation of soya meal in September was temporary and partly linked to harvest delays and a slowdown of crushings in the USA as well as the rally in feed grain prices...

Geopolitics Are Currently the Major Swing Factor

Fundamentals are partly brushed aside as long as the logistics chain in the Black Sea is interrupted by warfare, which strongly affects sunflower oil, among several other agricultural commodities. 

Consumption of vegetable oils for biofuel production continues to be driven by rising mandatory use, primarily in the USA, and by the firmness of fossil diesel prices, which significantly improves the competitiveness of biodiesel/HVO. Besides the impact of geopolitics, the current strong El Niño jeopardizes production of oilseeds and vegetable oils, primarily in the southern hemisphere....Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

Slow Start of Processing Despite Record Crop

Record supplies of sunflowerseed are disposed of slowly at the start of the season. Farmers in several producing countries are faced with significant domestic price pressure, while consumers in the importing countries are confronted with elevated prices on the world market...

We have raised our estimate on world production of sunflowerseed to a record 65.3 Mn T this season...Latest crop estimates in the FLASH

Malaysian Stocks Reach New High

Stocks of palm oil were record-large at 3.51 Mn T at the end of September and thus 0.7 Mn T above a month and even 1.15 Mn T above a year earlier. 

But apparently the market had already discounted the very high September production and stocks in preceding sessions when palm oil prices plummeted and widened their discounts vis-a-vis soya oil and other edible oils. Secondly, the much-improved price competitiveness triggered a pick-up in palm oil purchases from many importing countries, primarily from India....

Indian Palm Oil Imports Seen Raising

Disrupted trade flows of sunflower oil are leading to shift in Indian import demand. The preconditions to shift to palm oil are currently favourable. Indian importers have stepped up palm oil purchases since the reduction of import duties on Sept 24. Combined imports of palm oil and soya oil may increase by 0.6-0.7 Mn T on the year this quarter....

 

Soaring Biofuel Output is Raising Net Imports of Oils & Fats

Total net imports of oils and fats as well as UCO in August 2026 exceeded 0.9 Mn T for the second month in a row, resulting in an increase of 0.78 Mn T in June/Aug. Import requirements were mainly satisfied with canola oil, UCO, palm oil and tallow, in this order. Palm oil imports reached a 21-month high of 172 Thd T in August....

Veg Oil Prices Eased Only Slightly in Sept

The OIL WORLD edible oils price index declined to a 4-month low in September, reflecting mainly the recent setback of palm oil prices in the nearby position. The palm oil market is currently having the difficult task of balancing out the existing supply surplus, primarily in Malaysia, and the approaching shortage of export supplies, mainly in Indonesia. .... See the updated monthly average prices for oils & fats until September...