• 8 OILS

    MONTHLY May 24

    Diminishing Production Growth Probably Leading to Deficit

    The surplus of vegetable oils registered on the world market during the past two seasons is giving way to tightening supplies in 2023/24.....The slowdown is mainly attributable to palm oil with an only marginal increase shaping up this season. However, also sunflower oil and rapeseed oil output are losing momentum in April/Sept 2024, which is only partly offset by currently booming production of soya oil....


    MONTHLY May 24

    World Consumption of Oilseeds Larger Than Expected, But Supplies Sufficient

    In the season 2023/24 we now estimate world consumption of 7 oilseeds to increase by 22.4 Mn T, the highest growth in 6 years. Oilseed production will not fully come up to earlier expectations. In our revised estimate we expect output of 7 oilseeds to rise by 17.6 Mn T from a year earlier...
    Although we made a downward revision in our production estimate and an upward revision in our consumption estimate, there will still be a global production surplus of approximately 3 Mn T ....


    June 2024

    Order Your OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2024 Now!

    Volatility was the key feature during the past 24 months, with prices of most agricultural commodities skyrocketing to unprecedented levels after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The looming structural production in vegetable oils as well as the increasing likelihood of more severe weather patterns are likely to keep volatility high in the years ahead. In these challenging times, fundamental market analysis is key to your success. OIL WORLD reports provide a detailed summary of the fundamental changes of oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals, both by country and by commodity.

    In the OIL WORLD Annual of 1988 – thus 35 years ago – we already pointed out that:

    “Obviously prices and the weather in the northern hemisphere in general and in North America in particular will be the factor No. 1 for the further development of supply & demand. Not knowing the future, we will have to make assumptions about it to arrive at any conclusions. The actual development of weather and prices will then have to be measured against our assumption and the conclusions be modified correspondingly, if necessary.”

    At least in theory, nothing has changed. What has changed is the size of our market. Back in 1988, world usage of 17 oils & fats reached 74.4 Mn T per annum. For Oct/Sept 2023/24, we forecast world consumption to reach a record 259 Mn T. The OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2024 provides a detailed summary of the fundamental changes in oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals, both by country and commodity, with our revised supply and demand forecasts. 

    Our comprehensive yearbook is now available - as 700-page print issue and on USB drive...



    WEEKLY May 17

    World Import Demand for Canadian Canola Set to Grow in 2024/25

    The sizeable setback in EU rapeseed supplies as well as the prospective severe decline in Australian canola exports will force EU crushers to step up purchases of Canadian canola for delivery in 2024/25...

     Recent rains have significantly improved Canadian canola production prospects. We have raised our crop estimate to 20.3 Mn T in 2024, implying a year-on-year increase of 2.0 Mn T. Larger old-crop stocks will additionally raise Canadian supplies next season...


    WEEKLY May 10

    Soybean Disposals Higher in Febr/Apr

    Brazil boosted soybean exports to 14.7 Mn T in April, which sharply exceeded expectations and which represents the 2nd largest monthly export volume ever registered.....The USA is losing market share with soybean exports plummeting to an estimated 1.9 Mn T in April....

    Still, combined soybean crushings and net exports of 6 major countries increased to 31.8 Mn T in April (against 30.2 a year earlier) more details in the WEEKLY...


    WEEKLY May 3

    World Production Seen Increasing by 1.0 Mn T in 2023/24

    The world market is preparing for a normalization of groundnut disposals in Argentina, following last year's crop failure which trimmed Argentine exports by 22% and crushings by 47% in April/March 2023/24....World production of groundnuts is currently estimated at 34.6 Mn T (shelled) in the season 2023/24. The production increase of 1.0 Mn T is partly offset by relatively low groundnut stocks at the start of this season....

  • U.S.A.

    WEEKLY May 3

    Record UCO Imports Pressuring SBO Prices

    Record imports of used cooking oil (UCO) in March have at least temporarily changed the bullish sentiment in the US vegetable oil market.....Imports of UCO more than doubled in March, bringing the cumulation since Oct to a record 1.1 Mn T compared to 0.4 Mn T in Oct/March 2022/23....

    Record supplies of UCO explain why US consumption of oils & fats virtually stagnated in March and increased by “only” 0.3 Mn T in Jan/March 2024 while US biodiesel output increased by 10% and 0.7 Mn T... More details in the WEEKLY...

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 867 Je
    • May 23
    • Palm olein RBD, fob Mal
    • 529 Je/Jy
    • May 23
    • Rapeseed, Europe, cif Hamburg
    • 433 Je
    • May 23
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg
    • 1107 Je/Jy
    • May 23
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill