OIL WORLD

Rising Import Requirements Contrasting With Limited Export Supplies

Vegetable oil import requirements are expected to increase in the season 2025/26 in some key countries. In India, domestic veg. oil production is forecast to decline sizably and stocks at the start of this season are approximately 0.7 Mn T lower than a year ago.....

Taken together, we forecast world imports of eight oils to increase by to a new high this season. From today's perspective it will be a challenge to bring trade volumes to the outlined levels. Tighter than expected export supplies have already triggered sizable increases of sunflower oil prices in recent weeks....Tightening global supplies of soya oil will also result from sharply rising consumption in the USA, driven by increasing US biofuel production and policies favouring domestic feedstock ...Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

EU Rapeseed Meal Prices Under Pressure

This year’s sharply higher EU rapeseed crop and attractive processing margins due to rallying rapeseed oil prices pushed EU rapeseed crushings above initial expectations in July/Sept 2025. Weakness in soya meal prices as well as rising export supplies of rapeseed/canola meal (primarily in Canada and Ukraine) additionally weighed on prices....

S. America Boosting Exports to China

Soybean trade flows to China are currently unusually large and up sharply from last year, although none have been shipped from the US. Soybean exports of 5 countries to China were boosted by 2.8 Mn T or 42% on the year in August and by 3.1 Mn T or 54% in September.  

Total Chinese soybean imports will therefore be sufficiently large in the next 2-3 months, even without US soybeans...

World Production Declining This Year

During the past three months our estimates of biodiesel/HVO production have been scaled back for the USA and the EU-27 but increased for Indonesia and Brazil. The net effect is a minor downward revision of our global production estimate to 61.8 Mn T. This implies a decline by 2.4 Mn T from a year ago compared to an uninterrupted increase during the preceding nine years when the average annual growth reached 3.8 Mn T. 

This setback is clearly reflected in a slowdown in the growth of world consumption of 17 oils and fats to an estimated 3.3 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2025 (versus 7.9 Mn T in 2024), implying a sizable increase in non-energy uses, primarily for food...

Domestic Palm Oil Usage Set to Reach a New High in 2025

Booming biodiesel production is seen raising total Indonesian palm oil use to a record 23.1 Mn T in calendar year 2025, thus more than tripling within 10 years....

Temporary Elimination of Export Taxes Boosting Farmer Selling

Argentine farmers are now selling old-crop soybeans and grains aggressively after the government has temporarily eliminated export taxes, which has significantly raised domestic prices, particularly of soybeans.....

The latest developments in Argentina will make it possible for China to cover its soybean import requirements in South America at least until December. Argentine export estimates will have to be raised for the next few months, and we now consider it possible that they will reach...

Many Vagaries on Supply and Demand Side