OIL WORLD

Uneven Distribution of Consumption Growth

Biofuel-driven boom contrasting with price-driven rationing elsewhere....

Political parameters are strongly affecting vegetable oil markets this season. The interferences range from ambitious biofuel mandates to state intervention in production and exports like in the Indonesian palm oil sector. Furthermore, the conflict in the Middle East has improved the competitiveness of vegetable oils in the energy market and at the same time it raises production and transportation costs...

A two-tiered development of vegetable oil consumption is thus shaping up: The politically-driven uptrend of demand in some countries will partly come at the expense of consumers in price-sensitive markets....Rising domestic use in key producing countries will tighten export supplies. World exports of eight vegetable oils are estimated to decline by 1.5 Mn T on the year in April/Sept 2026...Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

World Oilseed Supplies Seen Increasing by 24 Mn T in 2025/26

World production of 7 oilseeds is turning out higher than previously expected in the 2025/26 season. We have made an upward revision by 3.3 Mn T from a month earlier and now estimate world production at 675.3 Mn T, 14.5 Mn T above a year earlier....

World consumption of oilseeds will continue to grow sizably and is expected to be up by 23.3 Mn T this season, driven by sharply increasing crushings of soybeans and rapeseed. . Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates for all 7 major oilseeds in the MONTHLY report....

Diminishing Global Surplus

Weak demand from China has compounded the surplus, but groundnut production is reduced in several countries this year in response to low prices.

Smaller crops than last year shaping up in South America have supported groundnut prices in recent weeks. US Runners 40/50 firmed to around US-$ 1325 in Rotterdam of late, up from only $ 1200 in Oct/Dec 2025. Overproduction in 2024/25 had pressured groundnut prices to an 8-year low at the end of last year when plantings for this year's crop took place in South America. As a result, farmers in Argentina and Brazil reduced groundnut cultivation by around 20%, partly even more...

Exports Started to Increase

The crop year 2025/26 will be a season in which world production and exports of sunflower oil in the second half will exceed the volumes of the first half.

Sunflowerseed crushings had started at a relatively slow pace in the Black Sea region in September and October and declined from a year earlier owing to drought-reduced crops and reserved farmer selling. This resulted in larger than usual price premiums of sunflower oil vis-a-vis other vegetable oils and triggered considerable demand-rationing, particularly in India, China and other importing countries.

But a change is underway since early 2026. Sunflowerseed crushings in Russia increased sharply from a year earlier in February and especially in March. Rising net export supplies have resulted in more aggressive marketing. The sharp reduction of the sun oil export tax in Russia with effect from May 1 has improved crush margins and stimulated sunflower oil production and exports...

World Trade of Linseed Seen Reaching a New High in 2025/26

World exports of linseed were boosted by 40% from a year earlier in Aug/March 2025/26 and are now estimated to approach a record 2.4 Mn T in the full season compared with 1.84 Mn T in Aug/July 2024/25. This is occurring on the back of very large crops in Kazakhstan and Russia....

China has become a booming market with increasing crushings and rapidly rising domestic demand for linseed oil....

Record World Supplies & Attractive Prices Seen Boosting Oilmeal Usage in 2025/26

World usage of soya meal has exceeded expectations in recent months, further gaining market share from feed grains and other proteins. We have raised our estimate of world consumption of soya meal to 143.5 Mn T in Oct/March 2025/26, up 7.5 Mn T from a year earlier. The year-on-year increase is expected to slow down in the second half of the season, partly as a result of last year’s already high level of comparison and deteriorating margins for livestock producers......

Taken together, usage of 8 major oilmeals is forecast to reach a record 405 Mn T this season, up 14.6 Mn T from a year earlier and sharply above the recent five-year average of 364 Mn T. Most of the increase is still expected to occur in China, followed by the US, Brazil and the EU-27....More details in the MONTHLY....

Rapeseed Crush Seen Reaching New Highs in 2026/27

The European rapeseed market is currently in transition from diminishing old-crop supplies to a rather abundant new-crop supply outlook. Record winter rapeseed plantings and sufficient moisture supplies across most major producing regions have set the stage for a further increase in EU rapeseed production to an estimated 21.0 Mn T this year, a new high and 0.4 Mn T above the comparatively large crop harvested in 2025. 

Stocks at the end of June are also likely to exceed the year-ago level by 0.2-0.3 Mn T, additionally raising EU rapeseed supplies at the start of the 2026/27 season. However, this rather ample outlook contrasts with the increasing risk of tightening world export supplies next season...