OIL WORLD

EU Rapeseed Prices Torn Between Bearish Supply and Bullish Demand Fundamentals

Larger winter rapeseed plantings bode well for a further increase in EU production in 2026. Timing and magnitude of the prospective recovery in demand for rapeseed oil as biofuel feedstock are key price-determining factors to watch.... EU-27 rapeseed production is estimated at 20.8 Mn T in 2026, a 12-year high and up 0.4 Mn T from a year earlier...

World Production Expected to Resume Uptrend in 2026

Production increase tentatively estimated at 4.6–4.7 Mn T amidst major political uncertainties and relatively tight feedstock supplies

Shrinking US production of biodiesel/HVO, the delay in the EPA announcement of biofuel guidelines and declining fossil fuel prices have recently exerted pressure on vegetable oils....Vegetable oil markets are currently evaluating to what extent a deterioration of the price competitiveness in the energy sector is justified in view of diminishing production growth shaping up in 2025/26....

World production of biodiesel/HVO is estimated to increase by 4.6–4.7 Mn T to a record 66.3 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2026. By country estimates in the WEEKLY...

Soybean Crush Up Sharply in 2025/26

Latest NOPA numbers indicate total US soybean crushings of 18.2 Mn T in Sept/Nov 2025, 1.5 Mn T or 9% above a year earlier....However, soybean inspections during the most recent two weeks plummeted to just 1.8 Mn T from 3.4 Mn T a year earlier. This is less than expected and will, most likely, require additional downward revisions in the export estimate for the full month of December....

Lower Production Growth Contrast With Bigger Demand Increase in 2025/26

Bumper South American Soybean Crop Likely to Exert Price Pressure

Year-on-year growth in world soya meal production expected to slow to 5.3 Mn T in 2025/26 vs. 20.4 Mn T last season....

Prices of most major oilmeals rallied by 10-15% in November, raising the OIL WORLD price index to a 14-month high of 117 points compared to 103 in Oct and 108 in Nov 2024. But is this start of a new price trend or is the market set for downward correction? 
Setting the political uncertainties – primarily the US/China trade conflict and its impact on the market sentiment on the CBOT – aside, the recent rally in soya meal prices of soya meal was not justified by the fundamentals. On the contrary, fundamentals of soybean market (primarily a meal seed) and vegetable oils are currently diverging. .... More details in the MONTHLY....

German Rape Oil Usage Set to Increase in 2026

German rapeseed oil usage is expected to rise in 2026, following yesterday’s decision of the German government to end double counting for advanced biofuel feedstock, viz. used/waste oils, as part of the national biofuel guidelines under the RED III directive of the European Commission....

Malaysian Palm Oil Yields Improving in 2025

Palm oil production is increasing contra-seasonally in Oct/Dec 2025 to an estimated at 5.7 Mn T, about 0.8 Mn T or 16% above a year earlier....Average palm oil yields turned out much better than initially expected. The most important reason for the substantially larger volumes of fruit bunches delivered to the mills is to be seen in a considerable improvement in the availability of foreign labour at the plantations in Malaysia....