FLASH Oct 15

    Trade Truce Unlikely to Lift Global Trade Volume

    Last Friday's US-China agreement does not imply a larger global soybean trade volume than without an agreement. In the MONTHLY of Oct 11 we estimated total Chinese soybean imports at 85.0 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2019/20. We do not change this import estimate and also keep our estimate of Chinese soybean crushings at 83.0 Mn T. The total crush volume will be mainly determined by...

    One of the consequences would be higher US soybean prices compared to the situation without an agreement. This is contrary to last year when... More details in the FLASH....


    MONTHLY Oct 11

    2019/20 World Soybean Supplies Revised Downward

    The global supply & demand balance of oilseeds has become somewhat tighter and contrasts with the ampleness a year earlier. Stocks at the end of the 2018/19 season were record large but about 2 Mn T less than expected mainly due to the downward revision of the 2018 US soybean crop released at the end of September....

    World oilseed production will be falling short of expectations in 2019/20....

  • 8 OILS & FATS

    MONTHLY Oct 11

    Sharp Decline in Vegetable Oil Stocks Anticipated

    We forecast stocks of 8 vegetable oils to decline to 26.5 Mn T at the end of this season. This is a massive decline by 2.4 Mn T from the start of this season and will represent only 13.0% of annual consumption, the lowest stocks/usage ratio in 11 years....

    Following three consecutive years of production surpluses, there will be a global production deficit in Oct/Sept 2019/20. Production of 8 vegetable oils is estimated to rise by only 3.1 Mn T or 1.5%, which is only 38% of the average annual growth of the past two seasons....


    FLASH Oct 10

    Corn Plantings Reduced in Favour of Soybeans

    Soybean plantings are likely to turn out higher than expected, probably reaching an estimated 18.0 Mn ha, up 0.6 Mn ha from a year earlier. Instead, planting intentions for corn have been reduced. Contrary to earlier expectations of an increase of....Key factors behind the reduction in corn planting intentions are discussed in the FLASH...


    MONTHLY Oct 11

    World Exports Accelerating

    Rising arrivals of soya meal slowed soybean imports and crushings in many key soya meal consuming countries....Increased Argentine soybean crushings and soya meal exports affected sales and exports from Brazil, Paraguay, the USA and India... Details in the FLASH...

    Argentine exports of soya meal were boosted by 1.6 Mn T from a year earlier in April/June...


    WEEKLY Oct 4

    World Production to Recover in 2019/20

    World production of groundnuts is tentatively estimated at 30.1 Mn T in 2019/20. This implies a recovery by 2–3% from last year but still trails the production volumes registered two and three years ago...

    Groundnut prices have appreciated on the world market from the relatively low level registered at the start of the year. The uptrend reflected the repercussions of the small crops harvested in 2018 in major countries as well as strong dependence on Argentine new-crop supplies, growing world demand and quality issues at some export locations....


    WEEKLY Oct 4

    Palm Oil Exports Lower than Expected

    Palm oil exports were reported at only 2.35 Mn T in August. This is less than we had expected and down from 2.6 Mn T a year earlier. However, it may be partly linked to the significant year-on-year increase in total Malaysian palm oil exports by 0.63 Mn T in August. We assume that Indonesian exports rebounded in September....

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 888 N/Ja
    • Oct 10
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
    • 385 O
    • Oct 10
    • Soybeans U.S., cif Rotterdam
    • 505 O
    • Oct 10
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 311 N
    • Oct 10
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg