MONTHLY Mar 22

    World Production Likely to Exceed Consumption by 9 Mn T in 2018/19

    Global consumption of oilseeds is staying sharply behind initial estimates. The slowing-down is significant, trade and crush volumes so far have stayed behind expectations (primarily in soybeans and rapeseed/ canola) resulting in price pressure as remaining stocks on farms and other locations are ample to burdensome.

    The slowing-down in consumption is most apparent in soybeans and was already noticed in the first half of the world crop season (in Sept/Febr 2018/19). For the full season we now estimate world soybean consumption to rise by only 2.1 Mn T...

    Global stocks of soybeans as well as of rapeseed & canola at new record highs at the end of this season...

  • 17 OILS & FATS

    MONTHLY Mar 22

    Tightening Supplies Owing to Diminishing Production Growth

    Palm oil yields are seen diminishing and soybean crushings are staying sizably below potential this season. Furthermore, the production growth of rapeseed oil and of cotton oil is shrinking while world output of groundnut oil may plunge .... This is partly offset by a pronounced increase of sunflower oil output. Taken together, world production of 17 oils and fats is expected to increase by only ...Mn T in Oct/Sept 2018/19, contrasting with outstanding increases in the preceding two seasons...

    The combination of fading production growth, low prices and the enforcement of rising biofuel mandates is boosting disposals of oils and fats and reduces the supply surplus. Indonesia is expected to account for more than one third of the consumption growth...


    MONTHLY Mar 22

    World Production Virtually Stagnating in 2018/19

    The ongoing trade conflicts between China and the US and Canada are having significant repercussions on the global supplies and trade flows not only of oilmeals but also of feed grains and meat.
    With the availability of imported oilseeds curtailed and the domestic pig sector in the doldrums, we consider it likely that Chinese oilmeal output will decline by an unprecedented 6.2 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2018/19, contrasting with an annual growth of 4.3 Mn T on the average of the past five seasons. With production in the rest of the world increasing by the same amount as the reduction in China, world production of oilmeals is seen stagnating at the 2017/18 level....


    FLASH Mar 19

    Low Prices Fuelling World Import Demand

    Prices of crude coconut oil plunged to a multi-year low of only US-$ 655 on March 14 but recovered by around $ 30 until March 18, possibly triggered by additional purchases. Coconut oil prices declined by more than 40% in the past 12 months...

    Demand for coconut oil increased pronouncedly in recent months, following rising production and declining prices mainly in Southeast Asia. World imports rocketed by more than 30% on the year in Oct/Dec 2018...


    WEEKLY Mar 15

    World Production Lower Than Initially Expected in 2018/19

    World production of corn oil is seen falling short of expectations and possibly even declining on the year in Oct/Sept 2018/19 after nine seasons of uninterrupted increases...

    In the US the ongoing downtrend of corn consumption in wet milling has recently also been accompanied by the reduction of corn usage by dry millers. This curtailed domestic production of corn oil to 0.87 Mn T in Oct/Jan 2018/19...


    FLASH Mar 14

    Boost in Spanish Output Pressuring Prices

    Spanish olive oil producers are dissatisfied with current prices of  olive oil which are down sharply from a year ago. However, the price decline did not come unexpected. During the past 2-4 months we repeatedly pointed to the bearish outlook, giving reference to the very large production and rising stocks...

    Spanish olive oil production will be boosted significantly to almost 1.9 Mn T...


    WEEKLY Mar 8

    Chinese Trade Restrictions on Canadian Canola

    Major disruptions of the trade flow between Canada and China are to be expected in coming months after Chinese authorities this week implemented import restrictions. There are reports about a pronounced slowdown of Chinese canola purchases in Canada. The duration of the conflict is unforeseeable, but the longer it lasts, the more likely it will affect Canadian plantings for and disposals in 2019/20....

    The threat of losing the Chinese market at least temporarily is compounding the outlook for unusually large canola carry-out stocks in Canada in July, even more so if Canadian exports of canola oil and meal to China and thus crushings are also affected. There are only few additional outlets for Canadian canola as EU-28 imports from Canada are limited by EU sustainability criteria in the biofuels sector, even if price...

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 804 My/Jy
    • March 21
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
    • 377 Apr
    • March 21
    • Soybeans Brazil, cif Rotterdam
    • 5000 Ap
    • March 21
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 328 Ap
    • March 21
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg