MONTHLY Sept 21

    Soybean Surplus Likely to Become Burdensome

    We now forecast oilseed stocks to increase steeply by 16 Mn T to a record 124.0 Mn T at the end of the world crop season 2018/19, equivalent to 21.6% of annual usage compared with 19.1% a year and 20.3% two years earlier. While stocks of rapeseed, cottonseed and groundnuts are expected to shrink, the global production surplus of soybeans will be much bigger than previously expected...

    Stocks will be mainly accumulating in the USA. Unless the US-China trade war is settled soon, lack of Chinese purchases of US soybeans will imply a sharp decline in total US soybean exports. China will maximize soybean purchases in South America and other non-US origins (like Canada and Russia), thus creating soybean price premiums in all these origins relative to US soybeans. This will trigger changes in trade flows....



  • 17 OILS & FATS

    MONTHLY Sept 21

    Production Surplus Expected to Continue

    In Oct/Sept 2018/19 world production of 17 oils & fats is forecast to increase by 5.7 Mn T to ... Mn T. This represents a slowdown from the outstanding increases in the preceding two seasons. A slowdown is expected primarily in palm oil and soya oil, the latter mainly attributable to a setback of soybean crushings anticipated in China.

    World supplies of oils & fats will still be ample in 2018/19 owing to large carry-over stocks of an estimated 29.9 Mn T, up 2.3 Mn T from a year ago. In 2017/18 world production exceeded consumption by an estimated 2.5 Mn T, mainly reflected in an increase of palm oil stocks by an estimated 1.9 Mn T...


    MONTHLY Sept 21

    World Output Down 2.2 Mn T in 2018/19

    World production of rapeseed & canola is turning out lower than initially expected in 2018/19. Following downward revisions in Canada, Australia and China, which were only partly offset by increases in India and in the C.I.S. countries, we have reduced our global production estimate to...

    EU-28 rapeseed production plummeted to a 7-year low of 19.5 Mn T in 2018, down 2.4 Mn T from a year earlier. With the harvested area practically unchanged at 6.71 Mn ha, this sharp decline was exclusively on account of unusually low average yields....


    FLASH Sept 19

    Indonesian Export Prices Close to a 3-year Low

    Palm oil prices have come under renewed pressure. In Indonesia fob export prices of crude palm oil plummeted to US-$ 515 for nearest forward shipment yesterday, down from US-$ 542 two weeks ago. The price decline occurred despite sharply rising palm oil consumption for biodiesel and may be linked to reports about larger than expected Indonesian production...

    In the cash market the price pressure for Malaysian crude and processed palm oils was less severe. But on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives crude palm oil futures came under considerable pressure and settled today at 2136 ringgit in the Nov contract and 2157 ringgit for December...


    FLASH Sept 18

    Oilseed Production to Reach multi-year High

    We currently expect oilseed production in India to increase by 1.6–1.7 Mn T in 2018/19, assuming about normal weather for kharif crops in coming weeks and for rabi crops in early 2019...


    WEEKLY Sept 14

    World Exports Up Sharply

    World trade in biodiesel is reaching new record highs this year. Exports of 4 major countries increased steeply by 1.0 Mn T or 70% in Jan/July 2018, with large increases in shipments to the European Union and China. In the OIL WORLD Weekly of September 14 we have summarized latest available export data for Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Canada...

  • IRAN

    WEEKLY Sept 14

    Imports of Soybeans and Soya Meal On the Rise

    The sharp increase in imports of soybeans & soya meal in July/Sept 2018 is likely to raise domestic consumption of the two products but might also promote a replenishment of stocks after they had been reduced by the end of the preceding quarter...

    It is not surprising that Iranian soybean processors took advantage of unusually attractive US soybean prices, boosting imports from that origin to almost...

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 507 O
    • Sept 20
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 632 O
    • Sept 20
    • Soya oil, fob Arg
    • 378 O
    • Sept 20
    • Sunseed, fob Black Sea
    • 833 O
    • Sept 20
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill