FLASH Nov 14
Weak Mineral Oil Prices Pressure Veg Oils
The sharp drop in crude mineral oil prices is spilling over to other commodities, mainly to oils & fats (as feedstock for biodiesel) but also to grains, oilseeds, oilmeals and other commodities. WTI prices plummeted by almost US-$20 per barrel during the past two months and were quoted at US-$ 10 per barrel below Brent oil on Nov 13....
Palm oil prices came under additional selling pressure on Nov 13. Crude palm oil futures were quoted at US-$ 455 fob Indonesia and were thus even US-$ 180 below Argentine soya oil. In our opinion, palm oil prices are undervalued and vulnerable to a correction. Such a correction could be triggered by ...
FLASH Nov 13
Record Sunflowerseed Production in 2018
We have raised our estimate of the 2018 sunflowerseed crop to 15.5 Mn T, a new high and up 2.0 Mn T on the year. Harvesting is almost complete and the yields obtained lately stayed sizably above the year-earlier levels...
THis is likely to boost Ukrainian sunflowerseed crushings to...
USA & CHINA
WEEKLY Nov 9
Lack of Imports of US Soybeans Starts Biting in China
Disposals of US soybeans have been severely affected by the US-China trade war. In calendar years 2016 and 2017 China was the by far largest customer of US soybeans, taking 36.1 and 31.7 Mn T, respectively, thus an average 60% of total US soybean exports in the two years...
Until October 2018 total Chinese soybean imports were still sufficiently high and South America could largely replace US soybeans. But this is now going to change. The lack of South American supplies will result in a steep decline in total Chinese soybean imports and crushings...
On both sides there is apparently increasing interest to solve the conflict because the impacts are getting more severe...
WEEKLY Nov 9
Soybean Imports Up Sharply
Egyptian soybean imports are currently boosted to unprecedented levels. They are seen approaching 0.8 Mn T in Sept/Nov 2018, bringing arrivals since January to a record... Mn T...
WEEKLY Nov 2
Monthly World Exports
Total shipments of four major veg. oils declined by 0.6 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2017/18. Shipments of soya oil and sunflower oil declined by 0.7 Mn T each.
World exports of palm oil increased sharply by 7% from a year ago in September. The Indonesian export volume was at 2.68 Mn T the second highest on record, fuelled by low prices...
MONTHLY Oct 26
Global Supply & Demand
In the world crop season 2018/19 there will be a production surplus of approximately 16-17 Mn T, according to our revised analysis completed on Oct 26. World stocks will be correspondingly higher at the end of the season (which in most cases is August 2019). The global production surplus is likely to be even larger at 19-20 Mn T in the case of soybeans, if the current forecasts on production and consumption materialize. Production and stocks are seen declining, however, in the case of rapeseed & canola, cottonseed and groundnuts.
At 579.3 Mn T world production of 7 oilseeds in 2018/19 is exceeding last season’s...
FLASH Oct 23
Canola Export Supplies to Decline Steeply
Severe damage has occurred due to drought and frost in many parts of the country, primarily in New South Wales, Victoria and southern Australia. The current range of crop estimates is between 2.0 and 2.3 Mn T. High carry-over stocks from last year will moderate the supply shortage. Nevertheless, Australian canola exports will plunge to ... Mn T, depending on the final crop size...
--- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---
- 336 N/D
- Nov 8
- Soya Meal, fob Arg
- 493 D
- Nov 8
- Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
- 642 N/D
- Nov 8
- Soya oil, fob Arg
- 710 D/Ja
- Nov 8
- Coconut oil, cif Rotterdam