FLASH June 21

    Sun Oil Production Declining Seasonally

    World sun oil production and exports are seen declining seasonally this month but will probably still be the second largest on record primarily on account of the strong performance of Russia and Argentina. According to latest shipment data, sun oil exports from Ukraine will drop to or slightly above 400 Thd T in June, thus trailing both the comparable 2017 and 2016 levels...

    Argentine sun oil exports are estimated to reach a multi-year high for the month of June...


    FLASH June 20

    Changing Global Trade Flows

    Increasing US/Chinese trade tensions will change global trade flows. For some commodities these changes could be significant. Let's take soybeans as an example: Chinese buyers are now concentrating their purchases on non-US origins, primarily South America. The aim is to maximize the Chinese share of total South American soybean exports for the remainder of this year...

    We now consider it likely that increased Chinese buying will raise the Chinese market share of total Brazilian exports to at least 86% in June/Dec 2018 and...


    MONTHLY June 15

    Global Production Surplus Forecast for 2018/19

    In our second projection we place world production of 10 oilseeds at 582.4 Mn T, down 2.0 Mn T from the first estimate but 21.5 Mn T above a year earlier. Weather conditions in the next 1-2 months will be of critical importance for the outcome of this year's oilseed crops in the northern hemisphere. Favourable conditions currently persist in most of the US Midwest, raising ideas of a new record soybean production in the USA, while US cotton crop expectations must be reduced in view of poor weather in some of the key areas...

    In the case of soybeans we expect a recovery in world production by 19.3 Mn T to 357.3 Mn T in 2018/19, mainly on account of Argentina, the USA and India. For all the other 9 oilseeds combined we estimate world production to rise by 2.2 Mn T to 225.1 Mn T next season, with reductions in cottonseed and groundnuts contrasting with increases in sunflowerseed, rapeseed & canola , palmkernels and copra, linseed & castor...

  • 17 OILS & FATS

    MONTHLY June 15

    Ample Suplies Expected in 2018/19

    Mixed indications for vegetable oil supplies in 2018/19: The growth in palm oil production is likely to lose momentum and soya oil output will be curtailed mainly in the early stages of the new season. This contrasts with prospects of quite ample supplies of sunflower oil and rapeseed oil. Furthermore, world stocks of palm oil and of vegetable oils in general are increasing sharply this season so that the 2018/19 season will start with large inventories...

    The major uncertainty on the demand side is seen in the profitability of vegetable oil use as energy source, determining the volumes absorbed by biodiesel producers and for generating heat and electricity. The price competitiveness of vegetable oils versus crude mineral oil has recently improved to the highest level in several years. This contributes to our forecast of an increase in total demand for oils and fats of...


    May 2018

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    MONTHLY June 15

    Growth in Palm Oil Output Likely to Slow

    Palm oil production is likely to turn out smaller than expected in April/Sept 2018, probably rising only 0.2 Mn T from a year earlier (which was  a high basis of comparison) in contrast to significant year-on-year increases in Jan/March 2018 and in Oct/Dec 2017...

    With total Malaysian palm oil stocks record high at 2.7 Mn T in early January, supplies will be sufficient to facilitate a boost in exports by approximately 1.0 Mn T in the full calendar year...


    WEEKLY June 8

    World Exports Still on Downtrend

    World exports of soya oil were again below the year-ago level in May. Exports of 4 major countries reached only 670 Thd T, down 15% from a year earlier despite unusually large US shipments...

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 580 Jy
    • June 21
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 687 Jy
    • June 21
    • Soya oil, fob Arg
    • 915 Jy/Ag
    • June 21
    • Coconut oil, cif Rotterdam
    • 401 Je
    • June 21
    • Soya Meal, Arg, cif Rotterdam