FLASH Aug 11
Malaysian Production to Decline in July/Dec 2020
Booming exports and a slowdown of production reportedly reduced Malaysian palm oil stocks to 1.7 Mn T as of end-July, a three-year low and down 0.2 Mn T or 11% on the month....
The still partly severe labour shortage on Malaysian plantations – predominantly foreign/migrant workers – is expected to keep palm oil production below potential also in Aug/Oct 2020 (usually the peak production period, based on an analysis of the past 10 years). We consider it likely that Malaysian palm oil production already peaked in June and expect a decline in July/Dec 2020....
WEEKLY Aug 7
Pronounced Recovery of Vegetable Oil Exports
The trade volumes of vegetable oils increased sharply in recent months from the unusually low levels in Jan/March. The magnitude of the uptrend in demand has caused a steep increase in prices in recent months, primarily of soya oil and palm oil...
World exports of the four major vegetable oils increased sharply by 12% to 7.4 Mn T in June. The uptrend of the trade volumes was somewhat surprising in view of partly substantial consumption losses during the lockdowns in many countries. While the effects of the pandemic are partly still severe, restrictions have been loosened and this has revived vegetable oil demand primarily from the restaurant sector. In addition, pent-up demand had been created by the partly severe decline of vegetable oil stocks in importing countries....
Weekly Aug 7
Declining Palm Oil Output
Indonesian palm oil production will probably decline by at least 1.0 Mn T in calendar year 2020 from the 44 Mn T produced last year. This already assumes a recovery in the second half of the year. In Jan/June 2020 production of palm oil as well as of palmkernels fell short of expectations. 7 publicly listed plantation companies reported a quite significant year-on- year decline of 6% in palm oil production in Jan/June...
Weekly July 31
Production Moving Eastward
Rising importance of the Chinese market will help shift linseed production in the former Soviet Union republics further east in 2020/21.
This is expected to limit linseed supplies available for European crushers, possibly raising import demand for Canadian flaxseed from the EU. Canada is likely to continue to lose market share in China to suppliers from Russia and Kazakhstan. While this year's linseed harvesting in the former Soviet Union republics has not yet begun, local market participants are already claiming that there will be only limited price pressure...
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FLASH July 29
Rapeseed Exports Set to Decline Sizeably in 2020/21
A further expansion of sunflowerseed production is likely to keep Ukrainian oilseed crushings as well as export supplies of vegetable oils and oilmeals on an uptrend in the upcoming 2020/21 season. At the same time, the sizable reduction of the rapeseed crop and the setback in soybeans are expected to bring oilseed exports to a multi-year low....
WEEKLY July 24
Soya Oil Shortage in Brazil
The Brazilian soya oil market has been on fire recently with prices rising on a daily basis. Asking prices rallied to more than 4200 real this week (cif São Paulo, excluding the 12% ICMS tax), equalling US-$/T 790-800...
Brazilian soya oil prices are pushed higher by tightening domestic soybean supplies, following huge exports in recent months. While Brazilian processors will be faced with a shortage of soybeans in coming months, demand for soya oil has grown significantly after the implementation of the mandatory 12% biodiesel admixture in March 2020. The pronounced year-on-year increase in Brazilian biodiesel production that started in May is seen continuing in...
--- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---
- 938 S/O
- Aug 6
- Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
- 332 S
- Aug 6
- Soya Meal, fob Arg
- 700 Ag
- Aug 6
- Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
- 378 Ag
- Aug 6
- Soybeans U.S., cif Rotterdam