WEEKLY Dec 7
Trade Flows Turned Upside Down
In Sept/Nov 2018 US soybean exports to China plummeted to only 0.4 Mn T compared with 16.35 Mn T in the same three months of last year, while US exports to all other destinations almost doubled to 13.6 Mn T.
South American soybean exports to China amounted to 15.6 Mn T in Sept/Nov 2018 (against 9.45 Mn T a year earlier), of which...
FLASH Dec 5
Setback in Meat Output
Production and exports of poultry are suffering a setback in 2018 owing to several factors. This is curbing compound feed production and soya meal usage below expectations. In turn, this is facilitating an increase of Brazilian soya meal exports by rougly 2.1 Mn T this year...
WEEKLY Nov 30
Shortage Looming in 2019
The global castor oil market will probably need to adjust to the pronounced tightening of supplies in 2018/19. Castor oil prices in Rotterdam rallied by 20% in 2 months to an average US-$ 1890 in November in response to the deteriorating supply outlook. During the previous severe shortage prices had rallied to an average US-$/T 2400 in Jan/Dec 2011. An overproduction of castorseed in India in 2012 and 2013 resulted in burdensome supplies which kept prices under pressure up to the first half of 2018.
However, the reserve stocks of castorseed were reduced massively primarily in 2017 and this year as India processed significantly more castorseed than it produced. Our tentative supply & demand forecasts for 2018/19...
WEEKLY Nov 30
Canola Crushings Below Potential
Following record processing volumes in July and August, Canadian canola crushings continued to fall below potential at 0.79 Mn T in October, down 10% from the previous year and curbing the total in the first three months of the 2018/19 season..
FLASH Nov 28
Dryness Curbing Rabi Crop Prospects
Unusual dryness prevailed in much of India in the past two months and affected plantings and emergence of rabi crops....Plantings of rapeseed are slightly ahead of the low year-ago level so far but trail the latest 5-year average by 5%. We have reduced our total Indian rapeseed crop forecast by 0.4 million to...
FLASH Nov 27
Palm Oil Export Levies to be Abolished
On Nov 26 the Indonesian government announced to live up to their plans to temporarily cancel the export levies on crude palm oil (US-$ 50) and its derivatives (US-$ 20-40), contributing to additional price pressure at export locations not only in Indonesia but also in Malaysia. While intended to raise the income of Indonesian farmers in the first place, this decision is also seen constructive for palm oil export demand and is expected to contribute to a normalisation of the current partly burdensome palm oil stocks in Southeast Asia.
The abolishment of the Indonesian palm oil export levies will come into effect as soon as the Finance Ministry has issued the regulation and will be valid as long as crude palm oil prices stay below...
WEEKLY Nov 23
Demand Rationing in the EU-28
Rapeseed crushings and rapeseed oil consumption will fall short of expectations in July/Dec 2018 and probably also in the first few months of 2019. The demand-rationing triggered by the current high prices of rapeseed oil as well as of RME is likely to create a bearish outlook for the second half of this season.
We therefore anticipate that the price premiums will narrow.
Bearishness in rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices will be limited, however, by the prospective small EU rapeseed crop in the summer of 2019...
--- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---
- 332 Ja
- Dec 6
- Soya Meal, fob Arg
- 430 Ja
- Dec 6
- Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
- 636 D
- Dec 6
- Soya oil, fob Arg
- 780 Ja
- Dec 6
- Coconut oil, cif Rotterdam