FLASH Feb 19

    World Demand Growth Largely Safisfied by Palm Oil

    Consumers worldwide will become more dependent on palm oil in the 2018/19 season due to insufficient supplies of other vegetable oils, primarily of soya oil and rapeseed oil...

    Malaysia and Indonesia are likely to account for 89% of world exports in Oct/Sept 2018/19 with Malaysian exports estimated at 17.3 Mn T and those of Indonesia at 29.15 Mn T. A closer analysis of the palm oil exports of the two countries so far this season confirms unusually sharp increases in shipments to...


    MONTHLY Feb 15

    Global Production Surplus in 2018/19

    A key fundamental factor is to be seen in the slowing-down of world consumption growth of 7 oilseeds to just 5.5 Mn T this season. This is less than one third of the average annual growth in consumption registered in the preceding three years.

    The major reason is China where, under the lead of soybeans, crushings of all oilseeds are now estimated to decline by 7.4 Mn T to a 3-year low in Oct/Sept 2018/19 compared with year-on-year increases of 6.7 Mn T last season and 5.7 Mn T in 2016/17....

    Under the lead of soybeans, this season's global ending-stocks are seen rising by 5 Mn T to 116 Mn T...

  • 8 OILS & FATS

    MONTHLY Feb 15

    World Consumption Growth Seen Increasing

    The season 2018/19 is characterized by accelerating demand growth on the one hand and a slowdown of the production growth on the other. To some extent this is the market's response to oversupply, partly burdensome stocks and unusually low prices prevailing at the end of 2018. The question is how fast these diverging developments will lead the market from surplus to deficit...

    World consumption of eight vegetable oils may be boosted by 8.3 to 196.0 Mn T this season. The growth leader is Indonesia at 3.1 Mn T, driven by booming biodiesel production. Brazil and Malaysia follow at a distance...


    FLASH Feb 13

    South American Soybean Exports to Decline in 2019

    This year's soybean crops will turn out smaller than expected in Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. In Argentina production prospects improved. The net result is an increase in soybean production of the four South American countries by 7.9 Mn T from a year earlier...

    However, total South American soybean supplies in 2019 will be down from last year. Old-crop stocks carried over into 2019 are down sharply in Brazil and Argentina...


    WEEKLY Feb 8

    World Production Declining in 2018/19

    A pronounced upward revision of the Brazilian crop estimate contrasts with downward revisions of production mainly in India and Uzbekistan. World production of cottonseed is now seen slightly lower than before at 43.0 Mn T in 2018/19, 1.5 Mn T less than last season...

    Cottonseed crushings in the US increased by 8.5% to a multi-year high in Aug/Nov 2018, speaking for a processing volume of at least ... Mn T in the full season. There are reports that rising prices have curtailed demand for cottonseed for direct feeding in the dairy industry...


    WEEKLY Feb 8

    Record Supplies Likely to Weigh on Canola Prices

    Stocks of major oilseeds reportedly reached a record 18.9 Mn T in early January, with sharply higher Canadian canola stocks more than offsetting the downtrend in soybean and flaxseed inventories...

    The currently burdensome canola stocks and the uncertain outlook regarding canola disposals in Jan/July 2019 are likely to keep Canadian canola prices under pressure in the near to medium term. This may also curb Canadian canola plantings this spring, especially if the downtrend in canola exports to major importing countries other than China – registered in Aug/Nov 2018 –  cannot be reversed in coming weeks...


    WEEKLY Feb 8

    Further Growth in Oils & Fats Usage Expected in 2018/19

    Consumption of oils and fats in the five North African countries is seen increasing to 4.77 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2018/19, up from .... This implies an average annual growth of roughly 150 Thd T in the past 10 years...

    Total imports of oils and fats are forecast to stagnate this season, mainly owing to booming soybean imports and crushings, particularly in Egypt...

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 818 Mr
    • Feb 14
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
    • 383 F
    • Feb 14
    • Soybeans Brazil, cif Rotterdam
    • 528 F
    • Feb 14
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 325 Mr
    • Feb 14
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg