MONTHLY Jan 24

    World Production Revised Downward

    World production of 7 oilseeds is now estimated at a 3-year low of 551.0 Mn T, down 1.2 Mn T from a month earlier and 20.5 Mn T from last season. We made downward revisions from our previous estimates by 0.5 Mn T in soybeans and by 0.6 Mn T in rapeseed. For sunflowerseed we made an upward  revision of 0.5 Mn T for Russia and a downward revision for... 

    Record stocks of 126.6 Mn T at the start of the season (up 16.1 Mn T from a year earlier) have offset most of the drop in production...


    FLASH Jan 22

    Reduction of Veg. Oil Import Taxes Proposed

    In India a reduction of veg. oil import taxes has been proposed by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs. The Ministry suggested a reduction of 5 percentage points for crude palm oil and 10 percentage points for crude soya and sunflower oils in an effort to somewhat bring down domestic edible oil prices....

    But it is questionable whether the Central Government will take up this proposal. It is to be expected that...


    MONTHLY Jan 24

    South American Crops Smaller Than Expected

    In South America soybean production is seen rising by 4.3 Mn T from a year earlier in 2019/20. In mid-Dec we had still anticipated an increase of 5.5 Mn T, but an upward revision of last year's production in Brazil and downward revisions for this year's output in Argentina and Uruguay reduced the year-on-year increase accordingly...

    In Argentina the moisture situation is still problematic in around one third of the Buenos Aires province. We have made a downward revision in our soybean crop estimate to... Mn T. But further downward adjustments would become necessary, if the required rainfall does not arrive...

  • EU-28

    WEEKLY Jan 17

    Rapeseed Supplies to Remain Tight in 2020/21

    There is apparently very little scope for a recovery of EU rapeseed crushings in July/June 2020/21 as the prospective increase in production in the vicinity of ... Mn T is likely to be more than offset by sharply lower stocks in early July...

    Latest indications point to only a marginal increase in winter rapeseed sowings in 2019. First production estimates in the FLASH....


    PEOC 2020

    Price Outlook Veg Oils

    Indonesian palm oil rallied to US $ 810 on Jan 10, up steeply from US $ 480 in early Oct 2019. Technical and political factors could result in a downward price reaction in January, but only temporarily. There are strong indications of a global production deficit developing in coming months. We forecast that world palm oil stocks at the end of this season will be down steeply by 2.5-3.0 Mn T from a year earlier and anticipate higher prices of palm oil, soya oils and other veg oils in the next 3-5 months. The supply, demand and price outlook was discussed by Thomas Mielke at the PEOC on Jan 11 in Karachi.  

    To download slides click below...


    WEEKLY Jan 17

    World Trade On an Uptrend

    World trade in soya oil continued to recover from the low year-ago level in recent months. Shipments from five key countries increased by 10% from a year earlier in December....

    The increase was mainly due to Argentina and the US, more than offsetting decreasing exports from Brazil and Paraguay... EU soya oil imports reached an 8-year high in 2019, driven by tightening supplies of rapeseed oil and other vegetable oils...


    WEEKLY Jan 10

    World Market Prices Set to Increase

    World market prices of fish oil and meal are on an uptrend following the severe Peruvian production shortfall in December. A prolonged fishing ban in the north/centre region of Peru is likely to keep landings subdued in the first half of January, limiting fish oil & meal production this month.

    This will have severe repercussion on global trade and prices of both products as some Peruvian producers may end up physically short while certain key importers may not be able to satisfy demand in Jan/April 2020....

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 923 F/Mr
    • Jan 23
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
    • 386 F
    • Jan 23
    • Soybeans U.S., cif Rotterdam
    • 780 F
    • Jan 23
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 340 F/Mr
    • Jan 23
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg