Crush & Exports Increasing Seasonally

Global dependence on soybeans & products will remain very high, at least in the next 3-4 months, due to insufficient supplies of sunflowerseed & products, rapeseed & products and to some extent also of palm oil.

Combined soybean crushings and net exports of 6 major supplying countries increased significantly by 3.8 Mn T or 13% on the year in March, reversing the setback in February and bringing cumulative disposals in Sept/March 2024/25 to an all-time high of 185.2 Mn T, a staggering 10.3 Mn T above a year earlier...

Large Downward Revisions in Biodiesel Production

The markets for oils/fats and other biofuel feedstock were strongly affected by political vagaries of late. Booming US production of biodiesel and HVO as well as rocketing feedstock requirements registered throughout most of 2024 have given way to a pronounced downtrend of late. The US biofuel sector has fallen into a severe crisis in recent months owing to the lack of guidance regarding the fiscal support mechanisms....

Our revised tentative estimate of US biodiesel/HVO production for Jan/Dec 2025 has been lowered to 15.0 Mn T, a reduction of 1 Mn T versus our December forecast... More details in the WEEKLY...

Global Soybean Production Surplus This Season Despite Some Crop Losses

World soybean production is now estimated at 416.0 Mn T this season, 1.4 Mn T below a month earlier but a new high and 20.5 Mn T above the previous record registered last season....World soybean crushings are forecast to rise steeply by 23 Mn T from a year earlier to 352.8 Mn T in Sept/Aug 2024/25. Most of the increase will be on account of Argentina with an...

Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates for all 10 major oilseeds in the MONTHLY report....

Slowdown of Consumption Is Curbing the Production Deficit

The world markets of oils and fats have been subject to massive changes in recent weeks. The lack of political support has pushed the US biofuel industry in a severe crisis of late. Eroding domestic feedstock requirements have raised US export supplies and curbed import demand, thus having significant repercussions on the world market......

These changes are seen curbing the growth in world consumption of 17 oils and fats to only about 2.1 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2024/25, against 9.3 Mn T last season and initial expectations of an increase above 3 Mn T....

Large Surplus Shaping Up in Groundnut Market

The markets of groundnuts and products will be characterized by ample to burdensome supplies in coming months, exerting price pressure. Record crops will be harvested both in Argentina and Brazil this year, coming on top of larger production in the USA and India....

World production is seen increasing to a new high of 36.4 Mn T in 2024/25 (shelled) implying an increase of 1.5 Mn T from last season...

EU Linseed Crushings Set to Decline Sharply in 2024/25

EU linseed crushings are seen falling to a 12-year low of only around 0.55 Mn T in Aug/July 2024/25), reducing output of linseed oil and expellers correspondingly. ....

EU crushers heavily depend on imports owing to insufficient domestic linseed production, with an import dependency of more than 90% on average of the 10 years to 2023/24. Trade restrictions on Russia and diminishing export supplies in Kazakhstan, viz. the two largest suppliers for the EU crush industry, have pushed EU linseed prices to a 12-month high....Latest OIL WORLD estimates in the WEEKLY...

Canola Disposals Set to Decline

Escalating trade disputes with Canada’s two largest trading partners, viz. China and the US, will keep canola disposals sharply below potential in Mar/July 2025. China’s announcement of 100% import duties on Canadian canola oil and meal from March 20 onward pushed nearby canola futures (May position) to a three-month low....

While relatively tight world export supplies of vegetable oils should make it rather easy to revive import demand for Canadian canola oil in countries other than China and the US in coming months, the situation in meal is more complex....