WEEKLY Sept 18

    World Production Larger than Expected in 2020

    Relatively strong demand for oils and fats for biodiesel production has been a key factor behind the price rally of vegetable oils in recent weeks. With global supplies limited mainly due to a shortage of palm oil in 2020, partly rather price-inelastic demand for vegetable oils in the energy sector is necessitating some demand-rationing in the food sector and elsewhere...

    We have revised our estimate of world biodiesel production (including HVO) in calendar year 2020 upward to 43.4 Mn T. Larger than anticipated production is shaping up in the EU, USA, Brazil, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand....


    WEEKLY Sept 18

    Rising Dependence on Soybeans

    Reduced production of sunflowerseed and insufficient supplies of rapeseed & canola will be raising global dependence on soya oil and meal in the next 12 months. For Oct/Sept 2020/21 we currently estimate world crushings of soybeans to rise by 10.4 Mn T to ... Mn T. It is possible that crushings will turn out even larger, if production and disposals of sunflowerseed or other oilseeds fall short of our current estimates...


    MONTHLY Sept 11

    World Oilseed Production Forecast to Exceed Consumption in 2020/21

    World production of 10 oilseeds is estimated to reach 594.9 Mn T in 2020/21. This is slightly less than anticipated previously but still 30.9 Mn T above a year earlier and the highest on record. Despite reduced stocks at the start of the season, world oilseed supplies are seen rising by 16.6 Mn T from a year earlier. If our current production estimates materialize, oilseed supplies will be ample, at least “on paper”. Farmer selling could be a constraint, limiting supplies physically available to the market....

    Oilseed crushings are forecast to rise to 502.4 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2020/21, most of which in soybeans. Higher processing is also expected to occur in groundnuts, rapeseed, palmkernels and copra. Crushings of sunflowerseed and cottonseed will be declining owing to reduced crops in key countries. Details by country are given in the OIL WORLD Monthly...

  • 17 OILS & FATS

    MONTHLY Sept 11

    Production Growth to Recover Pronouncedly in 2020/21

    The steep increase of vegetable oil prices in recent months resulted from a combination of insufficient production and recovering demand. World output of 17 oils and fats will probably decline by approximately 2 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2019/20 versus an increase of 4 Mn T the year before. The slight increase of production above the year-ago levels in April/June and July/Sept is offsetting the sharp reductions seen in the first half of the season only partly....

    In the approaching season Oct/Sept 2020/21 a production growth in the vicinity of 7 Mn T is currently considered likely...




    FLASH Sept 10

    Malaysian Stocks Below Expectation in Early September

    In Malaysia palm oil stocks were still unusually small at 1.7 Mn T as of end-August, down from 2.24 one year and 2.50 Mn T two years earlier.... In August Malaysian production of crude palm oil recovered by 3% from a month earlier to 1.86 Mn T...

    Indonesian palm oil exports started to recover in June and are seen increasing further in July/Sept and Oct/Dec 2020, benefiting from rising world import requirements and the prospective decline in Malaysian export supplies... 



    FLASH Sept 9

    Prices Rallying on Deteriorating Crop Prospects

    Sunflower oil prices are on fire, fuelled by a mix of bullish developments, primarily downward revisions of this year’s production estimates in the Black Sea region (going lower and lower), reserved farmer selling as well as short-covering. Crushers are trying to find raw material to process in order to deliver their sales of sun oil and meal.

     Northwest Europe sun oil prices rallied to a 5-year high of US-$ 960 for nearest forward shipment on Sept 8, implying a steep increase by US-$ 145 or 18% from four weeks earlier. But this is not sustainable if our current sunflowerseed crop estimate materialize, as we explained in the FLASH....

  • European Union

    WEEKLY Sep 4

    Uptrend of Winter Rapeseed Plantings

    Early indications point to larger than initially expected rapeseed plantings this year. Partly excellent yields (primarily in the Baltics and in Germany) and comparatively high prices have reportedly revived interest in rapeseed cultivation in northern European countries...

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 944 O
    • Sept 10
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
    • 363 O
    • Sept 10
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg
    • 740 S
    • Sept 10
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 417 S
    • Sept 10
    • Soybeans U.S., cif Rotterdam