FLASH Oct 10

    Corn Plantings Reduced in Favour of Soybeans

    Soybean plantings are likely to turn out higher than expected, probably reaching an estimated 18.0 Mn ha, up 0.6 Mn ha from a year earlier. Instead, planting intentions for corn have been reduced. Contrary to earlier expectations of an increase of....Key factors behind the reduction in corn planting intentions are discussed in the FLASH...


    FLASH Oct 9

    World Exports Accelerating

    Rising arrivals of soya meal slowed soybean imports and crushings in many key soya meal consuming countries....Increased Argentine soybean crushings and soya meal exports affected sales and exports from Brazil, Paraguay, the USA and India... Details in the FLASH...

    Argentine exports of soya meal were boosted by 1.6 Mn T from a year earlier in April/June...


    FLASH Oct 8

    Canola Futures Up on Bad Weather

    Harvest delays and detrimental weather conditions continued to support Canadian canola prices in the week to Oct 7, with futures in Winnipeg up CAN-$ 11.00-11.50 in the first three positions...Partly heavy snowfall last week and forecasts of ongoing below-normal temperature in coming days are likely to curb this year's canola yields below potential...

    Expectations of unusually high Canadian exports of canola oil and meal in August, already indicated by record Canola crushings, were confirmed...Exports of selected commodities in the FLASH...


    WEEKLY Oct 4

    World Production to Recover in 2019/20

    World production of groundnuts is tentatively estimated at 30.1 Mn T in 2019/20. This implies a recovery by 2–3% from last year but still trails the production volumes registered two and three years ago...

    Groundnut prices have appreciated on the world market from the relatively low level registered at the start of the year. The uptrend reflected the repercussions of the small crops harvested in 2018 in major countries as well as strong dependence on Argentine new-crop supplies, growing world demand and quality issues at some export locations....


    WEEKLY Oct 4

    Palm Oil Exports Lower than Expected

    Palm oil exports were reported at only 2.35 Mn T in August. This is less than we had expected and down from 2.6 Mn T a year earlier. However, it may be partly linked to the significant year-on-year increase in total Malaysian palm oil exports by 0.63 Mn T in August. We assume that Indonesian exports rebounded in September....


    Outlook 2019/20

    Firmer Prices

    Vegetable oil prices are likely to get firmer relative to oilmeals in 2019/20. Latest OIL WORLD estimates point to a significant global production deficit for palm oil as well as for all oils & fats and the need to sharply reduce stocks, primarily of palm oil.

    There are many swing factors to watch, as pointed out by Thomas Mielke in a presentation in India on Sept 27...


    Outlook 2019/20

    Declining Consumption

    World crushings of soybeans as well as of all oilseeds will show only a below-average increase in 2019/20. We expect a further decline in oilmeal consumption in China. Despite a projected decline in world production of soybeans by 18 Mn T, world supplies will remain relatively ample.

    Thomas Mielke gave bearish price forecasts for soybeans and soya meal on Sept 26...

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 888 N/Ja
    • Oct 10
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
    • 383 O
    • Oct 2
    • Soybeans U.S., cif Rotterdam
    • 660 O
    • Oct 2
    • Soya oil, fob Arg
    • 490 O
    • Oct 2
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo