FLASH May 24
Rapeseed Production Prospects Deteriorating
Detrimental weather conditions have reportedly curbed rapeseed production prospects in several EU countries in recent weeks. While crops suffered from partly severe moisture deficits in northern Germany, Poland and the Baltics, excessive rainfall has been received in southern Germany and a few others countries...Details in the FLASH...
Sizeable downward revisions, primarily in Germany and Poland, could only partly be offset by improving crop prospects in Bulgaria and Hungary. The yield potential has suffered and several market observers point to a downside risk of EU rapeseed output to only...
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FLASH May 23
Biodiesel Production Accelerating
We tentatively peg world biodiesel production at a record 38.4 Mn T in calendar year 2018. The year-on-year increase is seen accelerating from 1.7 Mn T in 2017 to around 2.4 Mn T this year... Details in the FLASH...
The price competitiveness of vegetable oils and animal fats versus crude mineral oil as the major feedstock has improved significantly in recent months, reducing the need to subsidize biodiesel consumption. There may even be a reemergence of discretionary blending of biodiesel in the course of 2018, if the firmness of crude mineral oil prices continues to contrast with relatively low vegetable oil quotations.
MONTHLY May 18
Additional Argentine Soybean Crop Losses
The impact of the supply shortfall in Argentina is most severe in soya meal for which Argentina is the world's largest exporter. With a volume of 30.6 Mn T, Argentina accounted for 47% of world soya meal exports in calendar year 2017 and for 35% of the exports of the major 8 oilmeals...
From January until mid-May 2018 soya meal prices exploded on the world market, with Argentine fob export prices up 30% in that period. This is comparable to the previous drought years 2012 and 2009...However, the price response of soybeans was much more moderate with an increase of 7% from early Jan until mid-May 2018 and this for two reasons...
MONTHLY May 18
Consumption Growth Seen Rising
World supplies of the major vegetable oils have returned to ample levels in 2017/18, following a shortage in 2015/16 (due to El Niño) and tightness in 2016/17 (due to low stocks). This has resulted in pressure on vegetable oil prices, compounded by the uptrend of oilmeal prices. With demand for meal mainly driving oilseed processing, seed oil production is partly exceeding requirements this season (on top of rising palm oil production), improving the price competitiveness of vegetable oils in the energy sector to levels not seen in recent years. This effect was amplified by the rally in crude mineral oil prices to multi-year highs...
FLASH May 16
Palm Oil Production to Slow in Apr/June
Palm oil production is slowing down in the April/June quarter and will turn out below expectations. Following 5 quarters of significant year-on-year increases, palm trees are apparently taking a rest...
We received several indications pointing to almost unchanged production as compared to a month earlier in the first half of May...
WEEKLY May 11
Soybean Crop Hit by Heavy Rainfall
Another downward revision of the Argentine soybean crop is necessary. Heavy rainfall has stopped harvesting of soybeans on an estimated 2-3 Mn ha, located mainly in ...
Heavy rainfall is expected to continue at least until May 11. The extent of the damage is still uncertain, but there is an increasing risk that the final crop will not even reach...
--- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---
- 709 Je
- May 17
- Soya oil, fob Arg
- 642 Je
- May 17
- Palm olein RBD, fob Mal
- 457 My
- May 17
- Soya Meal, Arg, cif Rotterdam
- 1015 Je/Jy
- May 17
- Coconut oil, cif Rotterdam