WEEKLY July 20
High Prices Curbing Veg. Oil Consumption
While on the world market prices of palm oil and soya oil recently hovered at multi-year lows, vegetable oil prices in India have appreciated as a result of several increases in import duties and the depreciation of the Indian rupee by 6% versus the US dollar in the past 12 months...
The high prices have taken their toll on consumption and subsequently also curbed Indian vegetable oil import demand. The pronounced slowdown of the demand growth in the second largest vegetable oil consuming country has become a major bearish factor, primarily for the palm oil market. Consumption of vegetable oils still increased significantly in...
RAPESEED & CANOLA
WEEKLY July 13
Uptrend in World Trade
The rapeseed market is currently torn between diverging fundamentals, with an expected further growth in world export supplies of rapeseed and canola more than offsetting the severe production shortfall shaping up in the European Union.
We expect a boost in world rapeseed exports to a new high of 17.2 Mn T in July/June 2018/19, enough to not only satisfy larger than expected European and Chinese import demand but also allow for an increase in other major importing countries such as Mexico, Pakistan and...
FLASH July 12
Poor Harvest Results in EU
Sharply lower than expected rapeseed yields in France and additional downward revisions in Germany and Romania have significantly reduced the EU rapeseed crop. Based on latest OIL WORLD estimates, EU rapeseed output is likely to plummet to a six-year low of...
FLASH July 11
30% Biodiesel Mandate
The Indonesian Government has reenforced its intention to further raise consumption of biodiesel in view of the current high stocks and low prices of palm oil. On July 10 plans were announced to raise the domestic admixture mandate to 30% shortly from 20% so far. While the previous mandate has not yet been fully met...
FLASH July 10
Downtrend of Palm Oil Yield Cycle
The downtrend of the yield cycle continued in June. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported crude palm oil output at only 1.33 Mn T, 12% less than a year ago. This equals a yield of only around 260 kilos per hectare according to our estimates, as much as 25% below the ten-year average. A shortage of
workers owing to Ramadan holidays in June compounded the effect of...
Update 2017/18, Commodity Outlook 2018/19
Commodity outlook 2018/19 and updated supply & demand estimates 2017/18, monthly prices etc.
- palm oil
- soybeans, oil & meal
- rapeseed, oil & meal
- sunseed, oil & meal
MONTHLY July 6
Changing Global Trade Flows
An escalation of the US/China trade conflict will have major repercussions on trade flows of soybeans and other agricultural commodities. even if China maximizes purchases from South American and other non-US origins, total imports will not be enough to satisfy domestic requirements. We therefore consider it likely that China will still have to purchase at least 10-14 Mn T ofUS soybeans for arrival in Oct/Jan 2018/19...
--- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---
- 545 Ag
- July 19
- Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
- 821 Ag/O
- July 19
- Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
- 401 Jy/Ag
- July 19
- Soybeans Brazil, cif Rotterdam
- 920 Ag/S
- July 19
- Coconut oil, cif Rotterdam