FLASH Dec 5

    Ample World Supplies

    A global production surplus is likely to occur this season for the third consecutive year. Very large stocks carried over from last season and higher than expected new production in several countries in the Mediterranean region pushed olive oil prices to a multi-year low of US-$ 2380 for the average of Nov 2019, 28% below a year earlier...


    FLASH Dec 3

    Discount of Palm Oil vs. SBO Narrowing

    On the world market palm oil prices have strengthened more sharply than those of soya oil. The price discount of Malaysian RBD palm olein has narrowed to US-$ 40 for December yesterday and to less than US-$ 20 for April/June. This compares with discounts of US-$ 137 for the average of Sept this year. With world export supplies of soya oil virtually stagnating, a demand shift in favour of soya oil will be possible only in the short term and will pull up prices.

    We do not rule out that RBD palm olein will temporarily be equal or slightly above Argentine soya oil prices in early 2020....


    FLASH Nov 27

    Export Duties Under Review

    Any major changes in Argentine and/or Brazilian export taxes of soybeans as well as of soya oil and meal could have major impacts not only on farmers’ income but also on the relative attractiveness of domestic soybean crushings vis-a-vis exports.

    In Brazil it is considered likely that export taxes of soybeans will be raised above those of the products to make processing more attractive...


    FLASH Nov 26

    Palm Oil Imports Jump to Record in October

    Record imports of palm oil of 809 Thd T in October boosted cumulative arrivals in China to 6.07 Mn T in Jan/Oct 2019...The ongoing decline in Chinese soybean crushings and sharply reduced domestic supplies of soya oil, rape/canola oils and of animal fats contributed to the rising dependence on palm oil... Latest trade data in the FLASH...


    MONTHLY Nov 22

    Global Production Deficit of 12 Mn T in 2019/20

    Sharp reductions in world production of soybeans and rapeseed by 19 and by 3 Mn T, respectively, contrast with another record crop in sunflowerseed and a recovery in cottonseed and groundnuts....

    World production of 7 oilseeds is estimated to decline by 17.2 Mn T from last season to ... Mn T in 2019/20. But sharply higher carry-over stocks will keep world supplies of 7 oilseeds ample. However, stocks of soybeans and rapeseed will be reduced in the course of the 2019/20 season....

  • 8 OILS & FATS

    MONTHLY Nov 22

    Stocks May Decline by 2.5 Mn T in 2019/20

    The developments of vegetable oil production and consumption are diverging increasingly. In 2019/20 world production of eight oils may increase by only 2.9 Mn T... This contrasts with the anticipated increase of world consumption by 6.0 Mn T, on top of the unusually large growth of 9.1 Mn T registered in 2018/19.....

    Consumption is adjusting to the tightening of supplies only hesitantly. The large portion of vegetable oil use determined by biodiesel mandates is relatively immune against price signals, which raises the probability of....


    FLASH Nov 19

    Large Premium Preventing Soya Meal Exports

    Soya meal export prices rallied by 9% in the past four weeks to US-$ 470 on Nov 18. The premium over Argentine origin widened to more than US-$ 180, largely preventing export sales. We tentatively peg Indian soya meal exports in the full season Oct/Sept 2019/20 at .... Thd T at best, less than half the year-ago level....

    The low soya meal exports may curb Indian soybean crushings by at least 0.6 Mn T on the year in Oct/Dec 2019 even under the assumption of a further pronounced growth in domestic consumption...


world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 369 D
    • Nov 28
    • Soybeans U.S., cif Rotterdam
    • 700 D
    • Nov 28
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 318 D
    • Nov 28
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg
    • 694 D
    • Nov 28
    • Soya oil, fob Arg