OIL WORLD

Large Production Growth and Ample Stocks Weighing on Prices

Prices of the major vegetable oils have continued to decline so far this month, led by sunflower oil and rapeseed oil. Supplies of the four major oils are ample, at least in the nearby, leading to fierce competition on export markets....

Production and by the same token export supplies of palm oil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil are seen rising sharply this season, more than outweighing the tightness in soya oil....The recent surplus is also reflected in the development of stocks.... Details in thes OIL WORLD Monthly of May 19...

Soybean Prices Under Pressure

Soybean futures fell below US-$ 12 per bushel in the November contract for the first time in more than two years and settled at US-$ 11.87 per bushel on May 18...

Soybean disposals are falling short of expectations. World soybean crushings are anticipated to decline to a 3-year low of 311.1 Mn T in Sept/Aug 2022/23 (vs. 319.0 Mn T a year earlier). World stocks of soybeans are now estimated at 91.8 Mn T as of end-August 2023, 2.4 Mn T above our estimate a month earlier and 4.5 Mn T above a year ago....

Palm Oil Curbed by El Niño in 2024 and 2025

New forecasts confirm earlier indications of El Niño conditions strengthening and continuing well into the northern-hemisphere winter and probably stretching until early 2024....

In Indonesia and Malaysia several regions are already reporting below-normal rainfall in March and April. This is primarily true for Kalimantan in Indonesia during March and April. Stress on oil palms would become greater if moisture deficiencies accumulate for two or three months...

 

EU Rapeseed Oil Prices Plummeting

Weak demand, both from domestic biodiesel producers and the export market, kept EU rapeseed oil prices under pressure in the week to May 11.....

The situation in the EU biodiesel market is very complex, with diverging supply and demand developments. Soaring biodiesel imports from China...More details in the Weekly

Kazakhstan and Russia Expanding their Share in World Linseed Exports

Booming linseed production in Kazakhstan and Russia has reduced the share of North America in the world export market. Huge exports were made from these 2 countries....In contrast, Canadian exports of flaxseed (linseed) plummeted to a multi-year low of 117 Thd T in Aug/March 2022/23, i.e. less than half of the latest 5-year average...

In the European Union linseed imports declined sharply so far this season on account of reduced processing, primarily in Belgium and Germany. In contrast, China will probably boost linseed imports to a new high of 760 Thd T in Aug/July 2022/23, probably more....

Olive Oil Prices Rising to New Highs on Tight Supplies

Olive oil prices have continued to increase to a new all-time high this week. Demand-rationing so far this season has been insufficient to compensate the substantial shortfall in supplies....

In Spain extra-virgin olive oil was quoted at EUR 5683 per tonne on May 4, equivalent to US-$ 6294. This is up steeply from EUR 5173 or US-$ 5660 one month earlier and substantially above the prices of EUR 3399 and US-$ 3592 in early May of last year....

EU Production Set to Rise Further in 2023/24

Improved production prospects and comparatively large old-crop stocks are likely to keep EU rapeseed supplies elevated in 2023/24. However, price prospects and the outlook for global export supplies of rapeseed & canola are still uncertain, with planting progress and soil moisture supplies in Australia and Canada the key swing factors to watch in coming weeks....

Latest OIL WORLD estimates in the FLASH...