MONTHLY Dec 14

    Global Production Surplus in 2018/19

    There are two major swing factors to watch: 1) The weather in South America (there were some reasons for concern lately) and 2) the future US-China trade relations and impacts on soybeans and other agricultural commodities...

    For soybeans we anticipate a global production surplus of approximately 16 Mn T in the world crop season 2018/19. This is based on our global production estimate of 366.5 Mn T (25 Mn T above last season's reduced output) and on the prospective slowing-down of the growth in soybean consumption to...

    World production of 9 other oilseeds, taken as a group, is likely to decline by about 4 Mn T from a year earlier. The biggest reduction will be in rapeseed/canola with a prospective drop by 3.5 Mn T, with quite significant losses in...



  • 17 OILS & FATS

    MONTHLY Dec 14

    Ample Stocks But Deminishing Production Growth

    Under the lead of palm oil, prices of major vegetable oils fell to multi-year lows in recent months. This was the result of an unusually large production surplus in Oct/Sept 2017/18. As of end-September, stocks of 17 oils and fats were an estimated 3.3 Mn T higher than a year ago and in terms of annual usage they increased from 12.7% to 13.8%. Stocks are expected to accumulate further to a record 33.1 Mn T at the end of December 2018...

    A change is underway in the supply cycle from excess to a more balanced situation: following above-average increases in world production of 17 oils and fats of 10.8 and 13.8 Mn T in the past two seasons, world output is currently expected to increase by only...


    MONTHLY Dec 14

    Slowdown in Oilmeal Production

    In Oct/Sept 2018/19 world production of 12 oilmeals is likely to reach 359.1 Mn T, implying a below-average increase of 4.1 Mn T from 2017/18. The major reason is seen in the prospective 3.0 Mn T setback of Chinese output, which will contrast with an estimated 7.1 Mn T increase in the rest of the world under the lead of Argentina and Ukraine...

    While we expect a sizable slowing-down of the growth of world soya meal production this season, production of...


    FLASH 13

    US Soybean Purchases Reportedly Resumed

    China has resumed purchasing US soybeans. According to trade reports roughly 1.5 Mn T were purchased by Chinese state-owned companies in the USA on Dec 12 for shipment in the next 3 months. Additional purchases of ... Mn T are considered likely in the short term...Latest OIL WORLD estimates for 2018/19 in the FLASH...

    Chinese imports of oils as well as of oilmeals are picking up noticeably. In Oct/Dec 2018 arrivals will already be sizably higher for rapeseed oil, soya oil and palm oil as well as of rapeseed meal, sun meal and palmkernel meal....


    FLASH Dec 11

    Record US Soya Meal Exports

    US exports of soya meal will continue to rise to a new record in the first few months of this season, benefiting from insufficient South American export supplies...

    Combined soya meal exports of the USA, Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay declined marginally from a year earlier to a combined 9.2 Mn T in Oct and Nov 2018. Year-on-year reductions in shipments...


    WEEKLY Dec 7

    Trade Flows Turned Upside Down

    In Sept/Nov 2018 US soybean exports to China plummeted to only 0.4 Mn T compared with 16.35 Mn T in the same three months of last year, while US exports to all other destinations almost doubled to 13.6 Mn T.

    South American soybean exports to China amounted to 15.6 Mn T in Sept/Nov 2018 (against 9.45 Mn T a year earlier), of which...


    WEEKLY Dec 7

    Setback in Meat Output

    Production and exports of poultry are suffering a setback in 2018 owing to several factors. This is curbing compound feed production and soya meal usage below expectations. In turn, this is facilitating an increase of Brazilian soya meal exports by rougly 2.1 Mn T this year...

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 328 Ja
    • Dec 13
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg
    • 445 Ja
    • Dec 13
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 634 Ja
    • Dec 13
    • Soya oil, fob Arg
    • 800 Ja
    • Dec 13
    • Coconut oil, cif Rotterdam