FLASH June 18

    Veg Oil Stocks Down With Lower Seed Oil Imports

    A further boost in imports of palm oil contrasted with a pronounced year-on-year decline of seed oil imports in May. Palm oil imports of 827 Thd T in May were 39% higher than a year ago whereas combined imports of soya oil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil plunged by more than 40%....

    While palm oil stocks at Indian imports increased in May, total vegetable oil inventories at ports and in the pipeline declined last month as a result of low seed oil imports and a pick-up of demand, owing to a significant slowdown of domestic crushings...


    MONTHLY June 14

    Weather Threats in North America

    World production of 10 oilseeds is expected to decline slightly in 2019/20 under the lead of soybeans. At the moment there are still many uncertainties, mainly linked to weather developments, primarily in the USA, Canada, India and Australia, but also in the European Union, Ukraine, Russia and China....
    We estimate world production of soybeans to decline by 5.3 Mn T to 356.2 Mn T next season. Prospective reductions in the USA and Canada will be partly offset by larger crops anticipated to be harvested in China this year as well as in South America in early 2020. However, it remains to be seen to what extent South American farmers will raise plantings of corn in response to the higher corn prices resulting from the prospective crop failure in the USA.... More 2019/20 forecasts in the OIL WORLD Monthly...

  • 17 OILS & FATS

    MONTHLY June 14

    Smaller Increases Expected on Supply and Demand Side in 2019/20

    Outlook 2019/20: We expect world stocks at the start of the season 2019/20 near the high year-ago level of 31.7 Mn T. In relation to the rising consumption base, this stocks level is obviously less burdensome than at the start of the season 2018/19...
    World production of oils and fats is tentatively forecast to increase by around 5.2 Mn T next season, compared to an estimated 4.8 Mn T in 2018/19. Production of palm oil and of sunflower oil will probably show  unusually small increases. The assumed larger total increase therefore strongly depends on the prospective boost in production of soya oil, favoured by ample soybean supplies. However, our soya oil production estimate is based on a recovery of soya meal consumption worldwide and in China....


    May 2019

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    FLASH June 12

    Palm Oil Prices Undervalued

    Palm oil prices are seen appreciating in the second half of 2019. In our opinion, palm oil prices are currently undervalued. World consumption has already exceeded production in Jan/May 2019 and palm oil stocks have declined sizably...

    Malaysian palm oil stocks have fallen to a 10-month low of 2.45 Mn T at the end of May, but are still up from the 2.17 Mn T registered a year earlier. Domestic palm oil usage and exports increased sharply in Jan/May....


    WEEKLY June 7

    Soybean Crushings and Exports Picking Up

    The global market is getting increasingly dependent on Argentine soybeans in the next 6-8 months....In Argentina a soybean crop of around 56 Mn T will most likely be harvested this year, a 4-year high and significantly above the drought-reduced 35 Mn T last year...

    Argentine producers and exporters will benefit from the prospective decline in Brazilian exports, primarily of soybeans. We consider it likely that Argentine soybean exports will reach 10-12 Mn T in April/March 2019/20, compared with...


    WEEKLY June 7

    Crop Shortage Boosting Imports of Veg. Oils & Meals

    This year's decimated South African oilseed crops will severely curtail domestic crushings, raising imports of vegetable oils and oilmeals in coming months...Sunseed production is seen falling by 29% this year...

    With domestic production expected to remain limited and global export supplies still quite ample, South African sunflower oil imports are expected to stay on a high level in coming months....

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 655 Jy/Ag
    • June 13
    • Coconut oil, cif Rotterdam
    • 832 Jy
    • June 13
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
    • 368 Je
    • June 13
    • Soybeans U.S., cif Rotterdam
    • 465 Je
    • June 13
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo