17 OILS & FATS
MONTHLY June 14
Smaller Increases Expected on Supply and Demand Side in 2019/20
Outlook 2019/20: We expect world stocks at the start of the season 2019/20 near the high year-ago level of 31.7 Mn T. In relation to the rising consumption base, this stocks level is obviously less burdensome than at the start of the season 2018/19...
World production of oils and fats is tentatively forecast to increase by around 5.2 Mn T next season, compared to an estimated 4.8 Mn T in 2018/19. Production of palm oil and of sunflower oil will probably show unusually small increases. The assumed larger total increase therefore strongly depends on the prospective boost in production of soya oil, favoured by ample soybean supplies. However, our soya oil production estimate is based on a recovery of soya meal consumption worldwide and in China....
FLASH June 12
Palm Oil Prices Undervalued
Palm oil prices are seen appreciating in the second half of 2019. In our opinion, palm oil prices are currently undervalued. World consumption has already exceeded production in Jan/May 2019 and palm oil stocks have declined sizably...
Malaysian palm oil stocks have fallen to a 10-month low of 2.45 Mn T at the end of May, but are still up from the 2.17 Mn T registered a year earlier. Domestic palm oil usage and exports increased sharply in Jan/May....
WEEKLY June 7
Soybean Crushings and Exports Picking Up
The global market is getting increasingly dependent on Argentine soybeans in the next 6-8 months....In Argentina a soybean crop of around 56 Mn T will most likely be harvested this year, a 4-year high and significantly above the drought-reduced 35 Mn T last year...
Argentine producers and exporters will benefit from the prospective decline in Brazilian exports, primarily of soybeans. We consider it likely that Argentine soybean exports will reach 10-12 Mn T in April/March 2019/20, compared with...
WEEKLY June 7
Crop Shortage Boosting Imports of Veg. Oils & Meals
This year's decimated South African oilseed crops will severely curtail domestic crushings, raising imports of vegetable oils and oilmeals in coming months...Sunseed production is seen falling by 29% this year...
With domestic production expected to remain limited and global export supplies still quite ample, South African sunflower oil imports are expected to stay on a high level in coming months....
World Soybean Production Expected to Decline in 2019/20
World production of soybeans is likely to decline next season, mainly on account of a smaller crop in the USA. There are still many uncertainties, referring to both supply & demand.
In our tentative estimate we place world production of soybeans at 355.8 Mn T in 2019/20, 5.0 Mn T below the record established this season. The year-on-year decline is likely to be greater in the USA where we tentatively place the crop at...
World production of the other 9 oilseeds, taken as a group, is estimated to rise by around 2 Mn T in 2019/20. This will be under the lead of cottonseed with.....We also expect larger crops of groundnuts, palmkernels, linseed, sesameseed and castorseed. World production of rapeseed & canola is set to decline for the second consecutive year....
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released on 31 May 2019.
The OIL WORLD ANNUAL is a unique encyclopedia of world forecasts and statistics for all major oilseeds, oils and fats as well as oilmeals. On more than 700 pages this comprehensive yearbook contains profound textual analyses, statistics and graphs for the latest five calendar years as well as for five Oct/Sept seasons. The ANNUAL also provides our first global supply and demand projections for oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals for the season 2019/20.
In a special price section the reader is informed about monthly and annual world market prices and price relationships of the individual oilseeds, oils and oilmeals. The major price-making factors are analysed and on this basis an assessment is given for the price prospects of the key commodities on the world market.
With its coverage and in-depth information this publication is the world's most comprehensive encyclopedia of forecasts and statistics, covering 50 commodities and 150 individual countries, certainly including also the commodities and countries of your interest.
WEEKLY May 31
World Production Set to Decline in 2019/20
World production of sunflowerseed is expected to decline by 1.0 Mn from the record 2018/19 level to ... in the upcoming 2019/20 season mainly due to the assumed setback in the CIS countries (including Ukraine), which will only be partly offset by production gains in the rest of the world. While we forecast that the global sunflowerseed area will nearly match the 2018/19 record, the average yield is likely to drop by 1-2%...
--- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---
- 655 Jy/Ag
- June 13
- Coconut oil, cif Rotterdam
- 832 Jy
- June 13
- Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
- 368 Je
- June 13
- Soybeans U.S., cif Rotterdam
- 465 Je
- June 13
- Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo