WEEKLY Nov 8

    Further Supply Boost

    Record world supplies of sunflower oil coincide with unusually strong demand. 

    World production of sunflower oil will reach a new high in the 2019/20 season and so will disposals. The shortage of rapeseed oil and the resulting high price premium have made the European Union market a lucrative outlet for Ukrainian sun oil sellers so far in 2019/20. The spread between sun oil fob Black Sea and cif Rotterdam widened in recent weeks also because of...


    WEEKLY Nov 1

    Outlook 2019/20

    Consumption of oils and fats in the five North African countries is forecast to increase by 3–4% from last year to a record 5.0 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2019/20, up from 3.4 Mn T ten years ago. Slight increases are expected in usage of soya oil to 2.2–2.3 Mn T (versus 1.38 Mn T in 2009/10) and of palm oil to 1.2–1.3 Mn T (0.80).

    Imports of vegetable oils are expected to stagnate at the high year-ago level of 4.1 Mn T this season. About 82% of total consumption will be covered by imports...


    WEEKLY Oct 25

    Global Production Deficit in 2020

    Palm oil prices appreciated sizably by US-$ 40-55 during the past three weeks. Further sizable appreciation is in prospect, primarily in early 2020, if there is more evidence that the global production deficit is widening and stocks continue to decline...

    Latest announcements of governments to raise the biodiesel admixture mandate in the transport sector to 30% in Indonesia and to 20% in Malaysia will – if enforced – create an unusually tight palm oil balance worldwide...

    The growth in palm oil production will slow down noticeably. Following significant year-on-year increases in the past 8 quarters, the growth in world production is likely to slow down to just 0.2 Mn T in Oct/Dec 2019...

    In calendar year 2020 the tightness in palm oil could become more severe than expected hitherto...

  • EU-28

    WEEKLY Oct 25

    Declining Oilseed Crushings

    EU oilseed crushings dropped by an estimated 0.6-0.7 Mn T in July/Sept 2019, limiting total processing of the three major oilseeds to 47.9 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2018/19 (down 0.37 Mn T). While rapeseed crushings declined only marginally by about 0.15 Mn T last quarter, processing of soybeans and sunflowerseed trailed the record levels registered a year ago...

    Rapeseed crushings were relatively large owing to record imports from Ukraine & Canada...


    WEEKLY Oct 18

    Sharply Rising World Production and Export Supplies

    World production of palmkernel meal was boosted by 8% in 2017/18. The growth slowed down to 6-7% in 2018/19 and this season an increase of only around ... is currently anticipated...

    Sharply rising world production and export supplies had pushed prices of palmkernel meal to a low of an average US-$/T 129 (cif Rotterdam) in March 2019. In subsequent months prices appreciated pronouncedly to $ 140–150, driven by strong import demand. Diminishing import demand from New Zealand temporarily exerted price pressure but a pick-up in demand from other countries triggered a price reversal...


    WEEKLY Oct 18

    Trade Truce Unlikely to Lift Global Trade Volume

    Last Friday's US-China agreement does not imply a larger global soybean trade volume than without an agreement. In the MONTHLY of Oct 11 we estimated total Chinese soybean imports at 85.0 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2019/20. We do not change this import estimate and also keep our estimate of Chinese soybean crushings at 83.0 Mn T. The total crush volume will be mainly determined by...

    One of the consequences would be higher US soybean prices compared to the situation without an agreement. This is contrary to last year when... More details in the FLASH...


    MONTHLY Oct 11

    2019/20 World Soybean Supplies Revised Downward

    The global supply & demand balance of oilseeds has become somewhat tighter and contrasts with the ampleness a year earlier. Stocks at the end of the 2018/19 season were record large but about 2 Mn T less than expected mainly due to the downward revision of the 2018 US soybean crop released at the end of September....

    World oilseed production will be falling short of expectations in 2019/20....

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 380 N/D
    • Nov 7
    • Soybeans U.S., cif Rotterdam
    • 587 D
    • Nov 7
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 324 D
    • Nov 7
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg
    • 696 N
    • Nov 7
    • Soya oil, fob Arg