MONTHLY Oct 23

    Global Supply & Demand Balance Will Get Tighter

    The world supply outlook has tightened. Lower than expected stocks (at the start of the 2020/21 season) and production (in the northern hemisphere) have reduced supplies sizably below earlier expectations. In South America ongoing dryness in the first three weeks of October has severely delayed soybean plantings, particularly in Brazil and Paraguay...

    World production of soybeans has been revised downward to 366.7 Mn T for 2020/21. This is 2.9 Mn T below our previous estimate released on Sept 11....Global production of 6 other oilseeds is now forecast to decline to a 4-year low of 211.35 Mn T, a significant downward revision...

  • 8 OILS

    MONTHLY Oct 23

    Global Production to Increase by 4.6 Mn T in 2020/21

    Major changes are shaping up on the supply side of the vegetable oil market this season. Palm oil production has already started a year-on-year uptrend and a sharp increase in soya oil output is in prospect worldwide, despite disruptions in Argentina. A significant recovery in rapeseed oil output is currently shaping up this season, based on the tentative crop estimates and the assumption of rising Chinese imports of rapeseed...

    Such increases are indeed required in view of a decline in global sunflower oil output in the vicinity of 2.5 Mn T shaping up this season...


    FLASH Oct 21

    Canola Exports to Increase by 1 Mn T in 2020/21

    The sizeable recovery in production and ongoing strong global import demand, primarily from the EU, are boding well for a significant  uptrend of Australian canola shipments in coming months....

    Harvesting of this year’s canola crop is gaining momentum in most growing regions, but it will take another 2-3 weeks before representative yields will be available. We have raised our estimate of this year’s Australian canola production to ...


    FLASH Oct 20

    Soybean & Corn Import Taxes Reduced

    Brazilian import taxes were reduced to zero for corn as well as for soybeans and products to ease the domestic shortage. So far, the tax on imports from countries outside Mercosur was 8% for soybeans and corn, 6% for soya meal and 10% for soya oil. The tax reduction to zero will be valid until January 15 next year and for corn even until March 31....


    WEEKLY Oct 16

    World Sunseed Production down 4.8 Mn T in 2020/21

    World production of sunflowerseed will plummet to a three-year low in 2020/21, necessitating sizable rationing of disposals all over the globe. The extent of the reduction is still uncertain... Latest OIL WORLD estimates in the FLASH...

    Prices of sunseed and oil have already adjusted to the "new reality", but there is probably additional upward potential. The price elasticity of demand in countries where imports and consumption of sun oil have soared in recent years (e.g. India and China) is a key variable to watch...


    SEA Webinar Oct 8

    Sunflower Oil Prices to Remain High

    We expect sun oil prices to command price premiums of at least US-$ 150-200 over soya oil in the next 3-6 months. Sun oil is also likely to widen price premiums over rapeseed oil and palm oil in view of the sharply lower than expected world production and export supplies.

    We expect palm oil prices to trade sideways, probably slightly lower in the next 6-10 weeks, on the assumption that Malaysian palm oil stocks will recover from the unusually low level registered in September...Summary of the presentation given by Thomas Mielke at the SEA webinar on Oct 8 below...


    WEEKLY Oct 16

    Palm Oil Stocks Still Low in early October

    Palm oil stocks are still tight in Malaysia due to below-potential production and large exports. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) released end-stocks at only 1.73 Mn T, hardly changed from a month earlier, down steeply from 2.45 Mn T a year earlier and the lowest for this time of the year since 2016....

world price logo --- World Market Prices in US-$/T ---

    • 932 N/Ja
    • Oct 22
    • Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill
    • 460 N
    • Oct 22
    • Soya Meal, fob Arg
    • 758 N
    • Oct 22
    • Crude Palm Oil, fob Indo
    • 530 N/D
    • Oct 22
    • Sunseed, fob Black Sea