OIL WORLD

Iran War Is Having Severe Repercussions on Veg. Oil Markets

Sunseed Crushings Seen Rising in Jan/Aug 2026

Crushings of sunflowerseed are picking up in the Black Sea region on the back of large arrivals of sunflowerseed from Argentina. Sunflowerseed crushings in the EU-27 are seen rising from a year earlier in the second half of this season, reversing the decline registered in Aug/Jan 2025/26...

Global Area under Sunseed and Rapeseed to Rise Further in 2026/27

High oil-yielding oilseeds have gained attractiveness vis-a-vis grains  and partly also versus soybeans as well as peas and lentils. The strength of vegetable oil prices and the weakness in oilmeals and feed grains have created wider than usual price premiums of high oil-yielding oilseeds....

An above-average increase occurred in the global area of sunflowerseed and rapeseed & canola in 2025/26, with the harvested area reaching 73.4 Mn ha (up 3.9 Mn ha from a year earlier) and a further sizeable expansion is shaping in 2026/27. First tentative production estimates for the two softseeds in 2026/27 in the WEEKLY....

Production Losses in EU

Production of olive oil has not come up to expectations in several parts of Europe in 2025/26 and declined significantly compared to the preceding season. The deteriorating production outlook triggered a significant price appreciation in recent months.....

We have reduced our estimate of total olive oil output in the EU-27 to 2.0 Mn T for 2025/26, 0.2 Mn T less than produced a year ago and 0.4 Mn T below the record achieved in 2021/22....The production losses in Europe are partly offset by further increasing production in North Africa to record levels this season....

Import Dependence Still High Despite Slowdown of Consumption Growth

Vegetable oil imports may increase by 1.0 Mn T this season. Shift from soya to palm oil this quarter.

Indian vegetable oil imports declined by 0.7 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2025, partly attributable to a pronounced increase of domestic production, primarily of rapeseed oil. However, the decline of imports also resulted in a pronounced reduction of domestic vegetable oil stocks....Imports of vegetable oils are expected to increase sizably above the low year-ago level in the current quarter....

Accelerating Oilseed Plantings Worldwide in Response to Dwindling Growth in Palm Oil

Palm oil has lost its growth potential. The average annual growth in world production has virtually halved in recent years and is set to narrow further if Indonesian production continues to decline in 2027 and remains depressed in 2028.... 

During most of the past 5 years farmers worldwide reacted to the appreciating prices caused by the slowing-down of the production growth in palm oil and stepped up oilseed plantings....A closer analysis with breakdown by country reveals that most of the growth in the oilseed area occurred in Brazil, followed by Russia, Kazakhstan, Argentina, Australia and the European Union.... 

Prospective Demand from US Biodiesel Sector Expected to Skip the Scales Towards Tightening Veg. Oil Supplies

The relatively large increase in global output of veg. oils in Oct/Dec 2025 and probably also in Jan/March 2026 may be followed by only minor production growth in April/Sept 2026, reflecting mainly the expected setback in key palm oil producing countries.....

Consumption of the eight major vegetable oils is tentatively forecast to increase by 6.8 Mn T this season, thereof 1.8 Mn T in the USA....Demand for vegetable oils from biofuel producers is a key variable to watch not only in the USA, but also in Indonesia and Brazil....Latest OIL WORLD supply and demand estimates in the MONTHLY...