Indian Castor Crop Lower Than Expected

The significant deterioration of Indian castorseed crop prospects (see OIL WORLD Weekly of April 17) has been confirmed....Poor results in the key producing state of Gujarat are primarily attributable to prolonged heat and dryness since February, hurting yields and curbing the number of harvest rounds...

Indian castor oil export prices have appreciated by 2% to US-$/T 1525 since last week and are still having sizeable upward potential ....

Seed Oils Are Tightening, Palm Oil Supplies Recover

Firmness in prices of the major seed oils contrasted with a sizable setback in palm oil in recent weeks. Owing to palm oil's dominance in global trade, the weighted OIL WORLD price index of the major oils declined slightly to a 10-week low in the week to April 24.
Consumers have started to step up palm oil purchases in order to replenish depleted stocks and reduce the dependence on seed oils. Declining processing volumes will curb supplies of rapeseed oil and sunflower oil while the growth of soya oil production is clearly losing momentum. Therefore, rising supplies and improving price competitiveness of palm oil are bringing welcome relief  to the world market.  .... Read about the latest OIL WORLD supply & demand estimates in the MONTHLY...

Further Sizeable Increase in World Soya Meal Usage Required in Apr/Sept

World supply & demand fundamentals are currently diverging, putting soya meal prices under pressure. Seasonally increasing South American soybean crushings and the corresponding increase in soya meal export supplies on the one hand and the repercussions of the escalating trade war on economic growth and consumer spending on the other have created a difficult market environment for livestock producers in key countries. ...

Further price concessions may become inevitable to keep world demand for soya meal elevated in coming months. Following the 10.4 Mn T increase in world usage of soya meal registered in Oct/March 2024/25...

World Production Has Accelerated Under the Lead of Poultry

World production of poultry meat increased sharply by 4.1 Mn T on the year to 143.3 Mn T in calendar year 2024 and a further above-average increase of 3.3 Mn T is anticipated for Jan/Dec 2025. Poultry meat has gained market share from red meat, primarily beef, in many consuming countries. 

Slaughtering of cattle and cows accelerated in Jan/Dec 2024 in Brazil, the European Union and a few other countries. The resulting increase in production of beef in calendar year 2024 will be followed by a decline in production in 2025, when less animals will be available for slaughtering....

Soybean Imports Up Sharply

The granting of licenses for GM soybeans favoured a steep increase of imports to approximately 0.4 Mn T in Jan/March 2025, the bulk of it from the USA and already exceeding the annual volumes registered in the preceding two years. However, Pakistani importers have recently shifted to Brazil....

Crush & Exports Increasing Seasonally

Global dependence on soybeans & products will remain very high, at least in the next 3-4 months, due to insufficient supplies of sunflowerseed & products, rapeseed & products and to some extent also of palm oil.

Combined soybean crushings and net exports of 6 major supplying countries increased significantly by 3.8 Mn T or 13% on the year in March, reversing the setback in February and bringing cumulative disposals in Sept/March 2024/25 to an all-time high of 185.2 Mn T, a staggering 10.3 Mn T above a year earlier...

Large Downward Revisions in Biodiesel Production

The markets for oils/fats and other biofuel feedstock were strongly affected by political vagaries of late. Booming US production of biodiesel and HVO as well as rocketing feedstock requirements registered throughout most of 2024 have given way to a pronounced downtrend of late. The US biofuel sector has fallen into a severe crisis in recent months owing to the lack of guidance regarding the fiscal support mechanisms....

Our revised tentative estimate of US biodiesel/HVO production for Jan/Dec 2025 has been lowered to 15.0 Mn T, a reduction of 1 Mn T versus our December forecast... More details in the WEEKLY...